The Week 2 Sunday Night Football game is an NFC North battle between the 1-0 Bears and 0-1 Packers. Sadly, the betting info says it’s likely to be a lopsided game. So, how should gamers handle their showdown lineup construction in a potential blowout?
Game: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -10.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Bears Analysis: The Bears sprung an upset against the visiting 49ers last week in rainy conditions. Nevertheless, they're sizable underdogs again this week in Green Bay. Justin Fields is the most exciting option from the 10-point underdog. The dual-threat quarterback had a career-high 11 rush attempts last week. Fields scampered for only 28 scoreless yards, but it was an exciting development after reaching 10 attempts only twice last year.
Unfortunately, he took two sacks, had an interception, completed under 50% of his passes and had only 121 passing yards. So, there was a lot to be desired. Thus, while Fields is the highest-ceiling choice from the Bears, he's not a must-use player.
Equanimeous St. Brown is the best value choice from the Bears on FanDuel. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he was second on the Bears in routes (17) and tied for second in targets (three). The former Packer hauled in one of his targets for an 18-yard score. Still, Chicago's wide receiver rotation that featured Darnell Mooney running 22 routes, Dante Pettis running 13, and Byron Pringle running four renders ESB a lousy selection at his salary on DraftKings.
Cole Kmet should only be used in cash games on DK. The third-year tight end's salary and the expectation of Chicago playing catch-up will assuredly make him a chalky pick. As a result, he's fine chalk to eat in cash games. However, the juice isn't worth the squeeze in tournaments.
Kmet's playing time and usage in Week 1 were red flags. According to our snap counts, he played 83% of snaps. However, Ryan Griffin also played 53% of snaps. Moreover, Kmet ran 16 routes, and Griffin ran 10 routes in the opener. The latter also had two targets to Kmet's one. So, Griffin is a nifty punt on DK at the minimum salary.
Finally, the backfield is interesting. Yet, starter David Montgomery is an easy fade. Montgomery played 66% of Chicago's snaps in Week 1. Khalil Herbert rotated in for a 29% snap share, and Trestan Ebner played 7% of the team's snaps.
Montgomery was much less effective on the ground than Herbert, rushing for only 26 scoreless yards on 17 carries compared to 45 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts for Herbert. Sure, Montgomery hauled in three receptions for 24 yards. Still, Herbert's effectiveness could earn him more work in Week 2.
Finally, Ebner is a galaxy-brain suggestion on DK. Chicago's new regime used a sixth-round pick on Ebner. The rookie running back has eye-catching speed and pass-catching chops. According to PFF, Ebner was tied for 12th in Yards Per Route Run (1.51), tied for 10th in PFF receiving grade and eighth in PFF pass-blocking grade out of 45 FBS running backs with at least 30 targets in 2021. Thus, if the Packers raced out to a big lead, Ebner could rotate in for passing snaps.
Packers Analysis: The Packers were crushed in Week 1. If you think that sounds familiar, you're correct. The Saints steamrolled them last season, and the Packers responded by beating down the Lions in Week 2. Unfortunately, Davante Adams isn't walking through the door to fix their receiving room. Further, Green Bay's offensive line is banged up.
So, the Packers might not simply flip the switch on. Still, Aaron Rodgers is the back-to-back MVP. And he sat out the preseason, creating a reasonable excuse for the sloppy play in Week 1. If Allen Lazard returns this week from his injury, Rodgers is the primary beneficiary with a familiar pass-catcher in the receiving corps. Regardless, Rodgers is a stellar option on the showdown slate based on his elite talent level.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are my favorite selections, though. Not much went right for the Packers last week, but Jones and Dillon were good. Jones had 76 yards on only eight touches (five rush attempts and three receptions), and Dillon had 91 yards and a touchdown on 15 touches (10 rush attempts and five receptions). Rodgers said this week that the Packers need to get Jones and Dillon more involved.
Matt LaFleur also said about Jones's eight touches last week, "that's not good enough." Jones's underlying numbers aren't all bad, though. He was tied for second on the team in routes (28). LaFleur also used Jones in the slot twice, inline twice and wide seven times. Therefore, Jones and Dillon can be on the field together. Additionally, Dillon was busy in the passing game, running 16 routes, aligning inline once, wide once, and in the slot twice.
Frankly, they can both eat. Still, Dillon is the more attractive option when factoring in the spread and his goal-line usage. In Green Bay's final five games in the 2021 regular season after their Week 13 bye, Dillon had eight carries and zero targets within 10 yards of scoring, and Jones had only two carries and one target.
Finally, Dillon was used as a sledgehammer closer. In Green Bay's last five games in the regular season last year, Dillon had 21 rush attempts for 100 yards versus just 12 for 59 yards for Jones when the Packers led by at least four points. So, again, Dillon is the more attractive option.
Green Bay's defense is an excellent correlation play with the team's running backs. If the game script is good for the backs, it's good for the defense. Further, a matchup with Fields is delightful. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Fields had the highest sack rate (11.8%) and interception percentage (3.7%) among qualified quarterbacks in 2021.
Robert Tonyan, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are the most exciting pass-catching options from the Packers, even if Lazard is back in the fold. Lazard hasn't progressed to practicing in full yet for Green Bay. So, I'm fading him.
Doubs probably takes the most significant hit if Lazard is back. He was fourth among wideouts in routes (25) last week. Meanwhile, Watson was the leader for routes (29). The bull case for Doubs is that he earned targets (five) on 20% of his routes and also ran the ball once.
Conversely, the positive spin for Watson was leading the team in routes and showing the ability to barbecue a cornerback on the first play from scrimmage.
The drop was devastating, but he cooked Patrick Peterson. He also got open on a play later in the game when Rodgers opted to throw it to Dillon instead.
Did Rodgers take the throw to Dillon because he didn't trust Watson? Maybe. It's certainly a consideration. However, Watson getting open for what could have been a chunk play was positive. The rookie's game-changing speed means he can pay off on as little as one target. It's unwise to overreact to a drop, but some might since it's been replayed on every media outlet and burned into everyone's brain.
Tonyan's value hinges on one question. Will he play more? Tonyan tore his ACL against the Cardinals on October 28, 2021. So, he's less than a year removed from the injury. The Packers understandably didn't give him a full workload in Week 1, limiting him to 36% of the snaps and 19 routes. Still, he was targeted on a stellar 21.1% of his routes, reeling in three receptions for 36 yards. A slight uptick in routes would boost his value.
Still, Tonyan has contingency value as a trusted weapon in the red zone. In 2020, Tonyan had 10 targets and six touchdowns inside the 20. As a result, there are a couple of paths to DFS value for Tonyan.
Final Thoughts: Chicago's offense is a fantasy wasteland. If they have a surprisingly good showing, anyone with the guts to overload them on an unbalanced roster will print money. Still, I can't see it even when squinting.
Instead, I suggest overloading on the Packers. On FD, gamers shouldn't use more than the minimum one Bear. At DK, 5-to-1 Green Bay rosters are my favorite build. However, a 4-to-2 Packers build is fine, too. Finally, there's plenty of meat on the bone for Dillon and Jones on rosters together.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
