The Week 5 Sunday Night Football Game is a battle of teams jostling for the top of the AFC North. The defending division champion and 2021 AFC Super Bowl representative Bengals swept the season series last year and will enter the contest on the heels of back-to-back wins following an 0-2 start. Meanwhile, the Ravens dropped a game against the Bills at home last week in which they led 20-3 at one point. They’ll attempt to rebound while navigating significant injuries on offense and defense. The oddsmakers and bettors expect Baltimore to win since they’re 3.5-point favorites. However, I’m skeptical, reflected in the following player suggestions and closing thoughts.
The Week 5 Sunday Night Football Game is a battle of teams jostling for the top of the AFC North. The defending division champion and 2021 AFC Super Bowl representative Bengals swept the season series last year and will enter the contest on the heels of back-to-back wins following an 0-2 start. Meanwhile, the Ravens dropped a game against the Bills at home last week in which they led 20-3 at one point. They’ll attempt to rebound while navigating significant injuries on offense and defense. The oddsmakers and bettors expect Baltimore to win since they’re 3.5-point favorites. However, I’m skeptical, reflected in the following player suggestions and closing thoughts.
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals destroyed the Ravens in two meetings last year. Joe Burrow had a huge hand in their victories, passing for 941 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. Thankfully, he's also rounding into form after stumbling out of the blocks. Burrow has passed for 562 yards and five interceptions in the last two weeks.
The third-year quarterback should stay hot running a pass-heavy offense against a woefully bad pass defense. The Bengals have attempted 95 passes and only 48 rushes with non-quarterbacks when the scoring margin has ranged from trailing by seven to leading by seven points this season. As for the matchup, the Ravens have allowed the most passing yards per game (315.3). Additionally, no other defense has allowed more than 300 passing yards per game this season. So, Burrow is an elite selection for this slate.
Obviously, his stud pass-catchers are superb picks, too. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the co-headliners in the studly receiving corps. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Chase is first on the Bengals in routes (184), targets (39) and receptions (25). He's also had 293 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Higgins leads the team in receiving yards (315) and also has two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he's listed as questionable with an ankle injury. However, he's expected to play. Both wideouts are elite options, and the salary discount for Higgins is enticing.
Gamers shouldn't sleep on Tyler Boyd in this matchup, though. He has 12 receptions for 202 yards and two touchdowns. Yet, it's his matchup, more than his numbers, that is the most appealing.
The linked video above from Josh Norris and Hayden Winks at Underdog Fantasy gushes about both Higgins and Boyd. However, Winks's nugget about Baltimore's ineptitude against slot wideouts was especially interesting. Thus, Boyd is an excellent selection.
Sadly, Joe Mixon has been highly inefficient. Don't sleep on his outlook in this game, though. Mixon's usage has been dreamy. He's touched the ball at least 22 times in three games and had 12 rushes, seven targets and three receptions in the outlier. Additionally, Mixon has run 108 routes compared to only 43 for Samaje Perine. Therefore, Mixon is a game-script-proof workhorse. And if the Bengals resume where they left off last year by beating the brakes off Baltimore, Mixon can pile up carries while protecting a lead.
Chris Evans is strictly a suggestion for gamers who are putting multiple entries in tournaments. The most likely outcome is zero fantasy points. However, Zac Taylor showed a wrinkle in last week's game that wasn't fully captured in the box score. Taylor dialed up a deep ball along the sideline to Evans. According to PFF, the ball traveled 25 air yards, and Evans had grass in front of him. If Burrow had been able to deliver an accurate pass that kept him in the field of play, Evans could have scored a 45-yard touchdown. Evans might not be entirely overlooked this week if he scored on that play last week. Finally, Taylor's willingness to use him on a designed play encourages his long-shot tournament appeal at the minimum salary on DraftKings.
Ravens Analysis: Rashod Bateman is out, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley is questionable but expected to make his season debut. So, Lamar Jackson might find the sledding tough against a talented defense. He also struggled mightily against them last year.
In Week 7 last year against the Bengals, Jackson completed only 15 of 31 passes for 257 yards and one interception. Still, he added 88 scoreless yards on the ground. So, Jackson's upside is substantial. Yet, he's not a must-use player.
The passing attack has funneled through Mark Andrews, and that's unlikely to change with Bateman out. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Andrews has the sixth-highest Target Share (31.9%) this year. The stud tight end has turned his target-hog usage into 6.0 receptions and 65.0 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns.
Sadly, Andrews struggled last week. However, he has a good matchup for a rebound this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals have yielded the eighth-most receiving yards per game (61.6) to tight ends this season. Last season, his results against the Bengals were mixed. He had only three receptions for 48 scoreless yards in Week 7 with Jackson starting. Then, he erupted for eight receptions, 125 yards and one touchdown in Week 16 with Josh Johnson starting for the Ravens. Obviously, Andrews has excelled with Jackson this year. So, he's an excellent selection.
Baltimore will need others to step up in the passing game without Bateman. Devin Duvernay has been highly efficient this year, but his volume has been alarming. Now, he's being pushed up the depth chart. So, while others will probably chase his points, I suggest dipping lower.
Instead, preseason star Isaiah Likely and 2021 fourth-round pick Tylan Wallace are reasonable darts. Wallace has played every game this season, running a few routes in each. Meanwhile, Likely didn't appear in the box score last week, but his 20 routes were tied for the fourth-most on the Ravens.
Final Thoughts: The Bengals are underdogs, but I expect them to win. I also think the offense will carve up Baltimore's defense. So, unbalanced lineups leaning heavily toward the Bengals are my favorite construction.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.
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