Freedman’s Favorites: Week 13 (2022 Fantasy Football)
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UPDATE NOTE (Fri. 12/22, 11:45 pm ET): This piece has been updated.
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 13
Here are my Week 13 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …
- Will probably be high in my rankings relative to the expert consensus rankings (ECR).
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Appear in my DFS player pool.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly Week 13 betting odds.
- Stand out in our industry-leading BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Analyzer.
- Catch my eye with their Week 13 projections.
I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 13 rankings, not this article.
Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added per play (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch), expected fantasy points (FPx), fantasy point overperformance (FPOP).
FantasyPros Accuracy Contest
Freedman’s Favorite Week 13 Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (LAC) at LV: Chargers -2 | 50.5 O/U
- In his two games since No. 1 WR Keenan Allen returned in Week 11, Herbert has been at his best (554-5-1 passing, 75.3% completion rate, 7.9 AY/A).
- For the season, Herbert is No. 1 with 312 completions and No. 2 with 463 pass attempts overall and 123 pass attempts of 10-plus yards (per our Advanced QB Stats Report).
- Herbert has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.227) and dropback SR (53.4%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Down 6 with 1:48 to go, Justin Herbert guides the Chargers to a game-winning drive after going 7-for-8 with a TD pass and a successful 2-point conversion to take the 25-24 lead and win the game.
The noted social media quarterback threw for 274 yards and 3 TDs today.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 28, 2022
I’m taking over 21.0 fantasy points on Herbert in the Week 13 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Herbert Update (Fri. 12/2): WR Mike Williams (ankle), C Corey Linsley (concussion) and RT Trey Pipkins (knee) are out. Even so, Herbert is a solid QB1.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) at DET: Jaguars -1.5 | 51.5 O/U
- Lawrence started the season slowly (6.7 AY/A, 14-58-0 rushing in Weeks 1-5), but since Week 6 he has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in five of six games (7.3 AY/A, 25-121-3 rushing).
- The Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (24.6 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs. MIA: 49ers -4 | 46.5 O/U
- Since joining the 49ers in 2017, Garoppolo is No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.137) — behind only Patrick Mahomes (0.177), Drew Brees (0.166) and Deshaun Watson (0.144).
- The Dolphins are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (21.1 FPPG).
Garoppolo Update (Fri. 12/2): WR Deebo Samuel (quadricep), RG Spencer Burford (ankle) and LT Trent Williams (back) are all questionable, but I tentatively expect them to play. Garoppolo is a high-end QB2.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) at CHI: Packers -4 | 43.5 O/U
- Rodgers (thumb, ribs) exited Week 12 early but expects to play this week.
- The Bears could be without three secondary starters in CB Kyler Gordon (concussion), SS Jaquan Brisker (concussion) and FS Eddie Jackson (foot) and are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.218) and pass DVOA (27.4%, per Football Outsiders).
- For his career, Rodgers is 21-7 ATS against the Bears (per Action Network).
Aaron Rodgers screaming “I still own you” at Bears fans is pretty badass pic.twitter.com/nEdPLjpuzN
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) October 17, 2021
Rodgers Update (Fri. 12/2): LT David Bakhtiari (knee) is out, but WR Romeo Doubs (ankle, questionable) could return, and Gordon, Brisker and Jackson are out. Rodgers is a QB2 with significant upside.
Mike White (NYJ) at MIN: Jets +3 | 45.5 O/U
- In place of benched starter Zach Wilson, White was a strong 22-of-28 for 315-3-0 passing with a 78.6% completion rate last week against the Bears, and for his career he has a palatable 6.7 AY/A.
- The Bears aren’t all that much worse than the Vikings, who are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (20.0 FPPG) and last week enabled the White-similar Mac Jones to have his best game of the season (382-2-0 passing, 71.8% completion rate, 10.8 AY/A).
Quarterback PFF grading and efficiency (EPA/play)
Small sample for Mike White and Kyle Allen messes up the scale but I'm sure you want to see White at least pic.twitter.com/mCKXy5j4rS
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) November 29, 2022
White Update (Fri. 12/2): RT Cedric Ogbuehi (groin, illness) is doubtful, but LT Duane Brown (shoulder, questionable) should play after practicing fully on Friday, and the Jets might have a pass-leaning game plan without RB Michael Carter (ankle), who is doubtful. White is a matchup-based QB2.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 13 Running Backs
Derrick Henry (TEN) at PHI: Titans +5.5 | 44.5 O/U
- After having just 107 yards and a touchdown on “only” 34 carries and a target in Weeks 1-2, Henry has exploded since Week 3 with 1,219 yards and nine touchdowns from scrimmage (not counting a touchdown pass) on 213 carries and 25 targets in nine games.
- For the season, Henry is No. 1 in the league with 548 yards after contact (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
- The Eagles have added DTs Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph, but last week they still allowed 99 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage to RB Aaron Jones on 16 opportunities, and they are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (46.5%).
Henry Update (Fri. 12/2): EDGE Robert Quinn (knee) is out for the Eagles. Henry is a high-end RB1.
Josh Jacobs (LV) vs. LAC: Raiders +2 | 50.5 O/U
- After mediocre performances in Weeks 1-2 (154 yards, zero touchdowns), Jacobs has been the No. 1 fantasy back since Week 3 with 24.2 FPPG, 187-1,033-9 rushing and 38-297-0 receiving on 46 targets in nine games (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report).
- Last week, Jacobs lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 45.3 fantasy points on 303 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage on 33 carries and seven targets.
- Jacobs (calf) is dealing with an injury, but he played through it last week, and I tentatively project him to start this week.
- If Jacobs is out, then rookie RB Zamir White will be a viable flex play.
- The Chargers are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (0.016) and No. 29 in rush DVOA (4.6%).
- I could not have been more wrong.
Wherever Josh Jacobs is in your rankings, move him down.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) August 5, 2022
Jacobs Update (Fri. 12/2): Jacobs is questionable but likely to play after practicing every day this week. Jacobs is now my No. 1 overall back.
Check out my Week 13 early betting preview on Raiders vs. Chargers.
Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs. LV: Chargers -2 | 50.5 O/U
- Ekeler underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but since Week 4 he has been an elite producer (No. 2 with 22.8 FPPG), and for the year he has 1,051 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage in 11 games (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report).
- Last week, Ekeler led all players with 15 targets, and for the year he’s No. 1 at the position with 98 targets (per our Weekly Target Report).
- Ekeler is an elite pass catcher, and the Raiders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (43.9%).
This is the weekly reminder that Austin Ekeler is pacing for 151 targets & 124 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey holds the single-season records with 142 & 116 (2019, 16 games).
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 29, 2022
Ekeler Update (Fri. 12/2): WR Mike Williams (ankle) is out, so Ekeler could see some extra target volume. Ekeler is a top-three fantasy back.
Nick Chubb (CLE) at HOU: Browns +7 | 47 O/U
- Chubb has averaged 104.5 yards on 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets per game since his first start in Week 7 of 2018, and this year he’s No. 1 in the league with 649 yards and seven touchdowns rushing.
- Chubb leads the NFL with 33 carries of 10-plus yards and 11 carries of 20-plus yards.
- Chubb could benefit from a run-heavy game script as a large favorite (-350 at BetMGM).
- The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (27.6 FPPG).
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs. BUF: Patriots +4 | 43.5 O/U
- No. 2 RB Damien Harris (thigh) exited Week 12 early and is unlikely to play in Week 13.
- In the five games this year in which Harris has been out or played no more than 20% of the snaps, Stevenson has 546 yards and four touchdowns on 77 carries and 32 targets.
- In his 12 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Stevenson has averaged 17.1 FPPG (per FTN).
- The Bills will be without EDGE Von Miller (knee) on the defensive line.
Since Week 2 Rhamondre Stevenson has led the Patriots in Receptions, Targets, and Team Target Share.
He's really James White 2.0 🍽🔥 League Winner🙌
— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) November 29, 2022
Aaron Jones (GB) at CHI: Packers -4 | 43.5 O/U
- Among all lead backs, Jones is No. 1 in the league with a 50.3% Rush Percentage Over Expected (per Next Gen Stats).
- Despite splitting work with No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon and playing in an underperforming offense (19,6 points per game, No. 23), Jones has 1,125 yards and six touchdowns on 155 carries and 53 targets in 12 games.
- The Packers could give Jones with a heavy workload if QB Aaron Rodgers (thumb, ribs) is out.
- Against the Bears in Week 2, Jones had 15-132-1 rushing and 3-38-1 receiving on three targets.
- The Bears are No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (4.5%).
Jones Update (Fri. 12/2): LT David Bakhtiari (knee) is out, but Jones is still a low-end RB2.
Jamaal Williams (DET) vs. JAX: Lions +1.5 | 51.5 O/U
- No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) is dealing with injuries and has seen limited usage (23 carries, 23 targets) in five games since returning to action in Week 8.
- Even with Swift active, Williams has 346 yards and seven touchdowns (plus a two-point conversion) on 85 carries and three targets over the past five games.
- Williams is No. 1 in the league with 13 touchdowns rushing overall and 22 carries inside the five-yard line (per our Red Zone Stats Report).
- No player in the league has more than Williams’ 51.5 fantasy points per 100 snaps (per our Snap Count Analysis Report).
Jamaal Williams is out here rewriting decades-old definitions. pic.twitter.com/v6kJQeMyhD
— Mojo Markets (@mojo) November 24, 2022
Williams Update (Fri. 12/2): RG Evan Brown (ankle) is out, but Williams is still a solid RB2.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) vs. CLE: Texans -7 | 47 O/U
- Over the past two weeks, Pierce has just 32 scoreless yards — but he’s still the lead back (24 opportunities), and in Weeks 1-10 he had 898 yards and four touchdowns on 165 carries and 27 targets in nine games.
- The Browns are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.115).
Pierce Update (Fri. 12/2): No. 2 RB Rex Burkhead (concussion) has a chance to play through his questionable tag after practicing fully on Friday, but WR Brandin Cooks (calf) is out. Pierce is a high-end RB2.
David Montgomery (CHI) vs. GB: Bears +4 | 43.5 O/U
- Without No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert (hip, IR) and run-heavy QB Justin Fields (shoulder), Montgomery had 113 yards on 14 carries and four targets last week, and he could see a similar workload this week.
- Against the Packers in Week 2, Montgomery had 15-122-0 rushing and 2-14-0 receiving on two targets.
- The Packers are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (47.0%) and rush DVOA (11.2%).
David Montgomery at least one play every week where he's breaking multiple tackles pic.twitter.com/WvGWbunbtg
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 28, 2022
Montgomery Update (Fri. 12/2): Fields is playing this weekend, but Montgomery is still a high-end RB2 without Herbert.
Travis Etienne (JAX) at DET: Jaguars -1.5 | 51.5 O/U
- Etienne (foot) exited last week due to injury after playing just five snaps, but HC Doug Pederson says that he was medically cleared to return but was precautionarily held out, so he seems likely to play this weekend.
- Ever since Week 7, when the Jaguars de facto sidelined No. 2 RB James Robinson (whom they traded in Week 8), Etienne has 480 yards and four touchdowns (with a two-point conversion) on 77 carries and 13 targets in four games (minus his injury-impacted Week 12).
- Etienne is No. 1 among all backs with 100-plus carries with 1.27 rushing yards over expected (per the RYOE app).
- If Etienne is out, then No. 2 RB JaMycal Hasty will be an intriguing option given that he had 95 yards and a touchdown last week on 12 carries and five targets as an in-game fill-in.
- The Lions are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (0.054) and rush SR (45.7%).
Etienne Update (Fri. 12/2): Etienne practiced each day this week, so I expect him to play through his questionable tag. He’s a low-end RB1.
Benny Snell (PIT) at ATL: Steelers -1 | 43 O/U
- No. 1 RB Najee Harris (abdomen) exited Week 12 early, and No. 2 RB Jaylen Warren (hamstring) missed the game with an injury he suffered the previous week.
- Coming off Monday Night Football, Harris could struggle to recover in the truncated timeline, and Warren sat out every day of practice last week, so both players could miss Week 13.
- In their absence, Snell led the Steelers with 12-62-1 rushing, to which he added a six-yard reception on one target.
- The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.6%).
Snell Update (Fri. 12/2): Harris and Warren are both questionable, but Warren practiced fully this week, so I expect him to play, so Snell is no longer a favorite. I doubt Harris plays after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so Warren is an RB3 with upside.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 13 Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (MIA) at SF: Dolphins +4 | 46.5 O/U
- Hill is No. 1 in the league with 1,233 yards receiving, 87 receptions overall, 51 receptions of 10-plus yards and 21 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
- If I were a betting person — and I am — I’d be tempted to wager that Hill wins Offensive Player of the Year (+350 at DraftKings).
Target per route run rate leaders at WR
33% – Tyreek Hill
32% – Amon-Ra St. Brown
30% – CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams
29% – Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs
28% – DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave
27% – DK Metcalf
26% – Justin Jefferson
25% – Chris Godwin, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Amari Cooper
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
Hill Update (Fri. 12/2): LT Terron Armstead (toe, pectoral) is doubtful and RT Austin Jackson (ankle) is out, so the Dolphins offense could be less explosive than usual. I’ve bumped Hill down a little, but he’s still a solid WR1.
Check out my Week 13 early betting preview on Dolphins at 49ers.
Davante Adams (LV) vs. LAC: Raiders +2 | 50.5 O/U
- Since Week 10, Adams has 23-341-3 receiving on 38 targets in three games without No. 2 WR Hunter Renfrow (ribs, IR) and TE Darren Waller (hamstring, IR).
- Adams is No. 1 in the league with 123 targets and a 32.0% target share.
- Against the Chargers in Week 1, Adams had 10-141-1 receiving on 17 targets.
A.J. Brown (PHI) vs. TEN: Eagles -5.5 | 44.5 O/U
- The path to production is not always smooth, but Brown is pacing to hit career-high marks in targets (86), yards (831) and touchdowns (7), given his current numbers.
- The Titans are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.0 FPPG) and are without No. 1 CB Caleb Farley (back, IR) and S Lonnie Johnson (hamstring, IR).
- Sometimes karma is the best revenge.
AJ Brown revenge week against The Titans. The buildup will be electric.
I am expecting a 12-195-4 type of game. pic.twitter.com/fMSv47IYie
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) November 29, 2022
Brown Update (Fri. 12/2): CB Elijah Molden (groin) is out. Brown is a top-five fantasy WR.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs. JAX: Lions +1.5 | 51.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 8 from a head injury, St. Brown has 37-441-1 receiving on 48 targets with 3-13-0 rushing, and in his eight games with a snap rate of at least 50% he has 775 yards and four touchdowns on 81 targets and five carries.
- The Jaguars are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (23.7%).
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) at LAR: Seahawks -7.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 7 early with what seemed to be a serious knee injury, Metcalf somehow suited up for Week 8 and has 28-253-2 receiving on 40 targets in four games since then.
- In two games against the Rams last year, Metcalf had 11-150-2 receiving on 17 targets — and the 2022 Rams look little like the 2021 version.
- Even with No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (23.7%).
DK Metcalf is a monster pic.twitter.com/MIMatwk44v
— ۟ (@cloudpff) November 27, 2022
Metcalf Update (Fri. 12/2): The Rams defense will be without DT Aaron Donald (ankle) and maybe CB Troy Hill (groin, questionable), who missed practice on Thursday and Friday. Metcalf is a high-end WR2.
Amari Cooper (CLE) at HOU: Browns +7 | 47 O/U
- With 792 yards and seven touchdowns receiving on 93 targets, Cooper’s on pace for a career-best campaign, but, yeah, the Cowboys were definitely right to get rid of him, not that I’m bitter or anything.
- With the Week 13 return of QB Deshaun Watson, Cooper will now have the best quarterback of his career — who just happens to be in a massive #RevengeGame — so Cooper could be the beneficiary of piling-it-on production.
- Playing at NRG Stadium, Cooper is on the beneficial side of his notable indoor/outdoor career splits (10.2 yards per target indoors, 7.8 outdoors).
- The Texans are No. 31 in defensive pass against No. 1 wide receivers (25.8%) and could be without No. 1 CB Derek Stingley (hamstring), who has missed the past two weeks.
Cooper Update (Fri. 12/2): Stingley is out, as is TE David Njoku (knee). Cooper is an upside WR1.
Christian Kirk (JAX) at DET: Jaguars -1.5 | 51.5 O/U
- I’m not sure if Kirk is actually good — but he might be, given that he has 24-267-3 receiving on 37 targets over the past month and 56-725-7 on 91 in 11 games this year.
- I’m totally sure that the Lions are bad, as they rank No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (32.7 FPPG).
Keenan Allen (LAC) at LV: Chargers -2 | 50.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 11 from a hamstring injury, Allen has 10-143-1 receiving on 15 targets in two games.
- No. 2 WR Mike Williams (ankle) missed last week and is uncertain for Week 13.
- The Raiders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (33.1%).
Keenan Allen, welcome back to the end zone ⚡️pic.twitter.com/QyNIj221xL
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 27, 2022
Allen Update (Fri. 12/2): Williams is out, so Allen is a high-end WR2.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) at NYG: Commanders -2.5 | 40.5 O/U
- Since Week 7 — when backup QB Taylor Heinicke took over for injured starter Carson Wentz (pride/finger, IR) — McLaurin has been the best version of himself with 32-473-1 receiving on 49 targets in six games.
- In Heinicke’s 14 full starts last year, McLaurin had 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets.
- McLaurin is No. 1 this year among all wide receivers with 754 snaps played (per our Snap Count Leaders Report).
- The Giants are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (15.0%) and could be without CBs Adoree’ Jackson (knee) and Fabian Moreau (oblique), both of whom missed last week.
McLaurin Update (Fri. 12/2): Moreau is questionable but likely to play after practicing every day, but Jackson is out. McLaurin is a mid-range WR2.
DeVonta Smith (PHI) vs. TEN: Eagles -5.5 | 44.5 O/U
- Since the Week 7 bye, Smith has eight-plus targets in four of five games.
- The Titans are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (24.4%).
Smith Update (Fri. 12/2): CB Elijah Molden (groin) is out. Smith is a low-end WR2.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) at MIN: Jets +3 | 45.5 O/U
- Wilson has dramatic splits this year without benched QB Zach Wilson, averaging just 6.5 FPPG with him but 16.5 on 10.5 targets in four games without him (per RotoViz).
- The Vikings are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (21.1%).
George Pickens (PIT) at ATL: Steelers -1 | 43 O/U
- Since the Week 9 bye, Pickens has effectively been a co-No. 1 wide receiver with Diontae Johnson with 10-172-1 receiving on 16 targets and 2-23-1 rushing (and a two-point conversion).
- The Falcons are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (25.6%) and are without No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR).
Christian Watson (GB) at CHI: Packers -4 | 43.5 O/U
- In the absence of fellow rookie WR Romeo Doubs (ankle), Watson has gone off over the past three weeks with 12-265-6 receiving on 20 targets.
- The Bears are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (30.6%) — and Watson is now playing like the top pass catcher for the Packers.
Christian Watson reached a top speed of 20.97 mph on his 63-yard TD reception, the fastest speed by a Packers' ball carrier this season.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 28, 2022
Watson Update (Fri. 12/2): Doubs seems likely to play through his questionable tag after practicing every day this week, but Watson is still a low-end WR2.
Drake London (ATL) vs. PIT: Falcons +1 | 43 O/U
- If I had something good to write about London, this is where I’d put it.
- The Steelers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (34.3 FPPG) and could be without CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), who last played in Week 8.
London Update (Fri. 12/2): Witherspoon is out. London is a hope-and-pray low-end WR3.
Zay Jones (JAX) at DET: Jaguars -1.5 | 51.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 5 from an ankle injury, Jones — with the exception of touchdowns (0 vs. 4) — has been a co-No. 1 wide receiver with Christian Kirk based on snap rate (93.3% vs. 88.3%), targets (55 vs. 55), receptions (39 vs. 36) and yards receiving (389 vs. 398).
- The Lions are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.167) and could be without No. 1 CB Jeff Okudah (concussion), who missed last week.
Zay Jones Week 12
– 14 targets, 38% share
– 121 air yards, 52% share
– 11 catches, 145 yards, game winning 2 point conversion
– 27.5 fantasy pts
He has 10+ targets in 2 straight and 3 of last 5. Gets the Lions next week. Pick him up!
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 27, 2022
Jones Update (Fri. 12/2): Jones (chest) practiced each day this week, so I expect him to play through his questionable tag. He’s a WR3.
Van Jefferson (LAR) vs. SEA: Rams +7.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Nos. 1-2 WRs Cooper Kupp (ankle, IR) and Allen Robinson (foot, IR) are out, and in their absence last week Jefferson led the Rams with 3-29-1 receiving and seven targets.
- The Seahawks are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.129).
Nico Collins (HOU) vs. CLE: Texans -7 | 47 O/U
- Since his Week 10 return from a groin injury, Collins has effectively been the No. 1 wide receiver ahead of Brandin Cooks with a position-high 144 snaps, 26 targets and 16 receptions, which he has leveraged into 141 yards and a touchdown.
- In his eight full games this year he has averaged a livable 6.6 targets.
- The Browns are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (24.6%) and might be without CB Greg Newsome (concussion), who has missed the past two weeks.
Nico Collins has out-targeted Brandin Cooks in 3 straight games and by a pretty sizable margin overall (26 to 18)
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 27, 2022
Collins Update (Fri. 12/2): Cooks (calf) is out with an injury that popped up during the week. Collins is now a high-end WR4/flex option.
DeAndre Carter (LAC) at LV: Chargers -2 | 50.5 O/U
- Since the Week 8 bye, Carter has had a steady snap rate of 80% to 86% in each game and has totaled 19-223-2 receiving on 23 targets over the past month.
- Against the Raiders in Week 1, Carter had 3-64-1 receiving on four targets as a rotational receiver.
- The Raiders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (48.1%).
Allen Update (Fri. 12/2): WR Mike Williams (ankle) is out, so Carter is a viable deep flex play.
Elijah Moore (NYJ) at MIN: Jets +3 | 45.5 O/U
- In his eight games without benched QB Zach Wilson, Moore has significantly outplayed expectations (13.0 FPPG without Wilson vs. 4.5 in 13 games with him).
- The Vikings are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (31.9 FPPG).
Marvin Jones (JAX) at DET: Jaguars -1.5 | 51.5 O/U
- “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
- Jones has a #RevengeGame against the Lions, who are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (18.1%).
Julio Jones (TB) vs. NO: Buccaneers -3.5 | 40 O/U
- Since the Week 11 bye, the refreshed and healthy Jones has an explosive 6-93-1 receiving on nine targets with 1-15-0 rushing.
- The Saints are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (41.2%) — and Jones might be the best No. 3 pass catcher in the NFL.
Julio Jones being effective on sweeps and reverses this year is quite the plot twist
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) November 27, 2022
Trent Sherfield (MIA) at SF: Dolphins +4 | 46.5 O/U
- Sherfield is locked in as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver with a 61% snap rate since his first start in Week 7, and although he has just 18 targets since then he has produced with his opportunities (10.7 yards per target).
- Without CBs Emmanuel Moseley (knee, IR) and Jason Verrett (Achilles, IR), the 49ers are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (46.8%).
- “I will hurt you for this. I don’t know how yet, but give me time. A day will come when you think yourself safe and happy, and suddenly your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth, and you’ll know the debt is paid.”
Freedman’s Favorite Week 13 Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) at CIN: Chiefs -2 | 52.5 O/U
- Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 18.4 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (11.9): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous.
- Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 26 red-zone targets, 35 receptions of 10-plus yards and 15 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
- The Chiefs have a week-high 27.5-point implied total in our Week 13 DFS cheat sheet.
Travis Kelce vs Jalen Ramsey. pic.twitter.com/I2xGMQQ5Cx
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) November 27, 2022
George Kittle (SF) vs. MIA: 49ers -4 | 46.5 O/U
- He hasn’t consistently produced on a week-to-week basis, but Kittle has 17-268-4 receiving on 26 targets in five games since RB Christian McCaffrey joined the team in Week 7.
- The Dolphins are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.9 FPPG).
Dalton Schultz (DAL) vs. IND: Cowboys -11 | 43.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 7 from a knee injury, Schultz has 24-230-3 receiving on 29 targets in five games.
- The Colts are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (24.7%).
Dalton Schultz has averaged 13 fantasy PPG in games started by Dak Prescott this season
In those 6 games he has topped double digits 4 times, he has less than 9.9 fantasy pts once. Schultz is living up to the high preseason expectations when he has Dak
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 25, 2022
Tyler Higbee (LAR) vs. SEA: Rams +7.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Higbee (knee) had no targets last week, but he was also playing through an injury and had a snap rate of just 59%: If he’s able to get in a full practice this week, I’ll project him for an expanded role, which could be significant given that Nos. 1-2 WRs Cooper Kupp (ankle, IR) and Allen Robinson (foot, IR) are out.
- The Seahawks are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (16.0 FPPG).
- Higbee is one of our top Week 13 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. GB: Bears +4 | 43.5 O/U
- No. 1 WR Darnell Mooney (ankle, IR) is out, so Kmet could see extra targets in his absence.
- The Packers could be without S Darnell Savage (foot), who exited Week 12 early with an injury.
Kmet Update (Fri. 12/2): QB Justin Fields (shoulder) is in, and Savage is doubtful. Kmet is a low-end TE1.
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