It’s a battle in California on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. The 49ers are the favorites against the visiting Chargers. The player pool for this showdown slate is relatively top-heavy, creating a need to root around the bargain bin for options. Fortunately, there are a few intriguing values to offset the sizable salaries of the studs. Regardless, there were some tough cuts. The following analysis will help gamers narrow their player pool for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate.
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Game: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
It’s a battle in California on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. The 49ers are the favorites against the visiting Chargers. The player pool for this showdown slate is relatively top-heavy, creating a need to root around the bargain bin for options. Fortunately, there are a few intriguing values to offset the sizable salaries of the studs. Regardless, there were some tough cuts. The following analysis will help gamers narrow their player pool for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate.
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Game: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers are the walking wounded. They're without Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, pushing all of their skill-position players up a few pegs. Sadly, the offense might faceplant because of the lack of high-end talent.
Nevertheless, Austin Ekeler is a do-it-all weapon who's been force-fed the ball. Ekeler has had at least 19 touches in five consecutive games. In addition, he's hauled in 29 receptions in his past three games.
Ekeler has also had a nose for the end zone, scoring a touchdown in five straight and reaching paydirt at least twice in four of those contests. The speedy running back's well-rounded skill set makes him game-script proof and a high-floor, high-ceiling pick. He's ostensibly the Chargers' lead running back and most involved pass-catching option.
Justin Herbert is the second-most exciting option from the Chargers. Even without Williams and Allen last week, the third-year quarterback chucked it 43 times. Herbert is also an excellent bet to air it out in most game scripts. Per numberFire, the Chargers have attempted 85 passes and only 39 rushes by non-quarterbacks in their last three games. And, obviously, Herbert will be forced to throw if the Chargers are in a negative game script.
Herbert is a rock-solid pick because of his likely high passing volume. However, he's not a must-use player. Herbert has cleared 250 passing yards only once in his last four games. Additionally, Herbert has thrown one, zero, two and one touchdown in his last four games. So, he hasn't been a world-beater.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Josh Palmer led the Chargers in routes (44) and was followed by DeAndre Carter (39), Michael Bandy (38), Gerald Everett (36) and Ekeler (28) in Week 9. Gamers might want to chase Palmer's points, but the juice probably isn't worth the squeeze. Instead, using Carter and Bandy for more affordable salaries to free up cap space for the heavily favored 49ers is more attractive.
Carter had five receptions for 53 yards, and Bandy had five for 26 last week. The matchup isn't too shabby for Carter in the slot. He ran a team-high 24 snaps aligned in the slot last week. According to PFF, Deommodore Lenoir and Jimmie Ward have played the most coverage snaps in the slot for the 49ers this year, and they've combined to allow 35 receptions for 328 yards and two touchdowns on 39 targets in slot coverage this season. Carter is a more exciting option than Bandy, but the latter's salary at DraftKings is inviting.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey was unleashed in only his second game with the 49ers. CMC had an 81% snap share in Week 8, the highest for a running back during that week. The former Panther did it all against the Rams, handling 18 of 22 of the backfield's carries for 94 yards and a score, tossing a 34-yard touchdown and leading the team in targets (nine) and receptions (eight) en route to 55 yards and a touchdown.
CMC can feast in a drool-inducing matchup this week. First, per Football Outsiders, the Chargers are 29th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Second, according to Pro-Football-Reference, running backs have averaged 131.1 rushing yards, 4.9 receptions, 30.0 receiving yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game against the Chargers. Further, running backs have averaged a blistering 6.03 yards per carry against Los Angeles. As a result, CMC is a no-brainer selection.
Jimmy Garoppolo has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. While San Francisco's talented pass-catchers can cannibalize work from one another, Jimmy G benefits from the bevy of weapons he has to air it out to. As the quarterback of the favored team in this game, Garoppolo is a rock-solid pick.
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were the tough cuts from San Francisco's pass-catching corps. Instead, I'm planting my flag on George Kittle from the talented trio. According to Football Outsiders, tight ends average the ninth-most receiving yards per game (58.1) against the Chargers.
Kittle's been in a groove lately. He's scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and had eight receptions for 83 yards in Week 6. Since Week 6, Kittle has had 24 targets, 17 receptions, 220 yards and two touchdowns. Additionally, the narrative about Kittle being used as an extra blocker was bunk. In his last three games, he's run 107 routes on 120 passing snaps.
Jauan Jennings is an ancillary piece in San Fransisco's passing attack, but he's earned multiple targets in all seven games he's played and corralled precisely two receptions in each of his last four games. Moreover, the second-year wideout has earned a target on 20.2% of his routes this year.
Elijah Mitchell is the last featured bargain option. The second-year running back is ready to return this week and serve as CMC's backup. Thankfully, San Francisco's offensive tendencies and their standing as the favorite in this game leave enough meat on the bone for using Mitchell in this juicy matchup. The 49ers have fed their non-quarterbacks 144 rushes and attempted 134 passes when tied or leading this year. Thus, Mitchell carrying the ball around eight times against a defense that's been gashed for more than six yards per carry is within his range of outcomes.
Final Thoughts: CMC is the best option for the captain/MVP. Still, it's not outrageous to use Ekeler in that spot since he'll probably be peppered with targets while the Chargers play in a negative game script. Finally, CMC and Ekeler are on all of my showdown rosters, with the other featured players in this piece mixed around them.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
