NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Monday (12/12)

The final game of the weekend was wild. Atlanta and Chicago played a nail-biter Sunday night, with three lead changes happening in the final 2.1 seconds of that epic game. That shows you how hectic that ending was, and it has me excited to dive into this Monday card. There are a ton of games to discuss, so let’s go ahead and plunge into the schedule and odds!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

• MIA at IND (MIA -2.5) O/U: 228
• BKN at WAS (BKN -5) O/U: 228
• ATL at MEM (MEM -6) O/U: 228.5
• OKC at DAL (DAL -8.5) O/U: 227.5
• CLE at SAS (CLE -5.5) O/U: 223.5
• MIN at POR (POR -5) O/U: 232
• BOS at LAC (BOS -3.5) O/U: 227

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Ja Morant (thigh) Questionable
• Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) OUT
• Dejounte Murray (ankle) OUT
• Donovan Mitchell (leg) Questionable
• Bradley Beal (hamstring) OUT
• Desmond Bane (toe) OUT
• Jakob Poeltl (quad) OUT
• John Collins (ankle) OUT
• Royce O’Neale (personal) OUT
• Steven Adams (ankle) Questionable
• Al Horford (protocols) OUT

Core Plays

Trae Young (PG – ATL): $10,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Young had a nightmarish shooting night on Sunday, but this guy’s usage is insane right now. With Dejounte Murray off the floor, Murray has maintained a 42 percent usage rate while averaging 1.6 DK points per minute. Those are rates you’d usually see from an MVP candidate, and it’s led to Young combining for 94 DraftKings points in the two games since Murray went down. Memphis is not a bad matchup either, owning a 19th OPRK against opposing point guards.

Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C – WAS): $9,500 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
We like Porzingis for all the same reasons as Young. This guy has stepped up in the absence of Bradley Beal, scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in seven straight games. KP also posted a 53-point average in that span, seeing a career-high in shot attempts and usage in Beal’s absence. Porzingis pummeled Brooklyn in their most recent meeting, collecting 27 points and 19 rebounds just two weeks ago.

Clint Capela (C – ATL): $6,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
With John Collins out for Atlanta, Capela has been guaranteed a 30-minute role. That’s all he needs to be successful, with Cap scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in 15 of his last 16 games. He’s also just shy of a 40-point average in that span, seeing his shot attempts and minutes rise in the absence of JC. That makes him one of the safest bets in this $6K price range, and he shouldn’t have any issues with a mediocre Memphis defense.

Cash Game Considerations

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $12,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Doncic has been the best cash game player in DFS all year, and it’s easy to understand why. This guy is leading the NBA with a 38 percent usage rate. That’s led to Doncic posting a 63-point average, which is also the highest total in the NBA. The Slovenian has also scored at least 52 fantasy points in all but two games and is simply the safest pick on every slate. Oklahoma City is an outstanding matchup, too, ranked 29th in points allowed. That was on full display when Doncic dropped 71 DK points in their one matchup earlier this season.

Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $10,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
This is a different team when Dame is in the lineup. The perennial All-Star has scored at least 40 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, flirting with a 55-point average in that span. That sort of production should continue as long as Lillard provides his typical 35 minutes, 20 shots, and 30 percent usage rate. Facing the Timberwolves is terrific, too, surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards while ranked 24th in total defense. Dame also dropped 55 fantasy points on them in their last matchup over the weekend!

Rudy Gobert (C – MIN): $7,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Gobert had one week-long stretch that was terrible, but he’s been the same stud aside from that. In fact, Rudy averaged 37 DK points per game through his first 17 outings of the year and has a 48-point average across his last three fixtures. That production bump is far from surprising since Karl-Anthony Towns is injured, forcing Gobert into more playmaking opportunities. He trounced the Trail Blazers just last week, totaling 48 DK points!

GPP Targets

D’Angelo Russell (PG – MIN): $7,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
We love what Russell is doing in this expanded role. The former All-Star struggled through the opening month but is playing his best ball since KAT went down. In fact, D-Lo has at least 32 DraftKings points in nine straight games while generating a 38-point average in that span. We haven’t seen that since his Brooklyn days, and we obviously don’t mind that he had 35 fantasy points in this matchup on Saturday.

Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG/SF – ATL): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
With Murray and Collins out for Atlanta, Bogey has stepped into a playmaking role. The winger has seen a season-high in minutes in back-to-back games, scoring 43 and 48 fantasy points in those two outings. We’ve seen this playmaker perform like this in the past, and it’s hard to understand why he’s sitting around $5K on both sites. Memphis is a marvelous matchup, too, owning a 25th OPRK against opposing wings.

Blake Griffin (PF/C – BOS): $4,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Big Al is stuck in dreaded COVID protocols, but it’s allowed BG to have a renaissance stretch. The former All-Star has started the last three games since Horford went into protocols, scoring at least 24 DK points in each of those. That would be a good average from a $4K player, and these sites are clearly slow to adjust to this expanded role. Facing the Clippers is far from concerning, with Griffin getting a revenge game against a defense that owns a 20th OPRK against opposing big men.

Value Plays

Kyle Anderson (SF – MIN): $5,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
We discussed how KAT’s absence has helped Gobert and Russell, but Anderson’s been the biggest beneficiary. He’s the one starting for Towns, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games. We also saw Anderson amass 47 DK points over the weekend, and a line like that is absurd from such an affordable player. He’s playing 35-40 minutes a night and stuffing the stat sheet at ease, which makes him a massive value in this sub-$6K price range.

Deni Avdija (SF/PF – WAS): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Here we are with another injury fill-in. Avdija has been starting for Bradley Beal, playing 35-40 minutes a night in his absence. Deni has also scored at least 31 fantasy points in three straight games, playing at least 39 minutes in all of those. Good luck finding that from another $5K player, especially a former first-round pick who’s getting better by the day at the ripe age of 21.

Seth Curry (SG/SF – BKN): $3,700 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Curry is a risky option, but this pricing is insane. This is one of the best sharpshooters in the NBA, and he can drop 40 fantasy points anytime he gets hot. The shooting guard had 37 DK points just two games ago and played 33 minutes in his most recent outing. If either of those happens here, Curry should be $2,000 more on each site. Washington is not a worrisome matchup either, sitting 18th in total defense.

Advantageous Pricing

• Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $12,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
• Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG/SF – ATL): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
• Kevin Durant (PF – BKN): $11,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
• Ben Simmons (PG/PF – BKN): $6,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
• Jimmy Butler (SF/PF – MIA): $8,600 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
• Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
• Jaren Jackson Jr.(PF/C – MEM): $7,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
• Charles Bassey (C – SAS): $3,900 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
• Aleksej Pokusevski (PF – OKC): $4,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
• Jaylen Nowell (SG – MIN): $4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
• Kawhi Leonard (SF – LAC): $7,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel

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