There’s no sugarcoating it. Last week was rough! The weather was horrendous across the board, and that was something I didn’t even consider when writing on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s something I need to be more cognizant of going forward, but it was tough to avoid, with over half of the league dealing with single-digit temperatures. Luckily we don’t have much of that this week, with 13 games to break down for the main card.
The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 17:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Justin Fields (QB – CHI): $7,900 at DET
Fields is my favorite play of the week. This guy has really turned his career around in the second half of this season, scoring at least 21 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games. Last week was his one rare dud, but he’s still a Top-3 quarterback in that span. His most impactful variable is a matchup with Detroit’s disastrous defense, who’s allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. In their one matchup earlier this year, Fields dropped 43.4 DK points in one of the performances of the season.
Carson Wentz (QB – WAS): $5,100 vs. CLE
Wentz lost his job because of an injury earlier in the year, but it looks like Washington is going right back to him. This former Eagle was good before his injury, averaging 18 DraftKings points per game. That makes it hard to believe that he’s just $5,100 on DraftKings, priced around a bunch of benchwarmers. Cleveland is not a concerning matchup either, ranked 16th in yardage allowed and 21st in points allowed.
FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): $9,000 vs. DEN
Many people will fade Mahomes because of his price and the matchup. There’s a big fat red 1st next to his name, and most people will look beyond him since he’s the most expensive quarterback on the slate. That would be a silly idea, with Patty scoring at least 17 FanDuel points in every game this season, en route to a 26-point average. He also had 352 passing yards and three touchdowns against this defense three weeks ago, and we’re not scared of Denver after allowing 52 points to the Rams on Christmas Day.
Geno Smith (QB – SEA): $7,100 vs. NYJ
Geno has played with a chip on his shoulder all season, and you know he’ll be motivated against the team that never really gave him a chance. Smith is fifth among active quarterbacks in FD points and is being priced outside of that Top-12 at that position. That’s tough to understand, even if facing NY is a tough matchup.
In Consideration: Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): DK $6,000/FD $7,100 vs. MIN
Rodgers has shown a limited upside this season, but he could be asked to throw more, with Aaron Jones possibly missing this game. The matchup is his biggest asset, though, with Minnesota allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Cam Akers (RB – LAR): $6,100 vs. LAC
Akers is one of the best plays of the day. This youngster has taken over this Rams backfield, playing in 75 percent of the team’s snaps in back-to-back weeks. He’s also got at least 12 carries in four straight games, collecting five touchdowns in that span. Good luck finding that from another player in this price range, especially against a defense allowing the most yards per carry in the NFL.
Leonard Fournette (TB): $5,600, at CAR
While Rachaad White has stolen the starting job in Tampa, Fournette is still the top option. Lenny has scored at least 11 DK points in all but two games this year, dropping 25 fantasy points in his most recent outing. That’s absurd from such an affordable player, but we’ve seen Fournette play at a $7K level for most of his career. Carolina is a defense he can crush, too, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing backs this year.
FanDuel
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA): $6,700 vs. NYJ
This pricing is egregious. Walker had a nightmarish matchup last week but picked up 26 carries for 107 yards. That bell-cow role makes him a good option, scoring at least 10 FD points in all but one game since taking over this backfield. He’s also Top-10 with over 15 FD points per game in that span and should get plenty of work with Seattle entering this matchup as a home favorite.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): $6,300 vs. DEN
This game script is a beauty for Pacheco. The Chiefs enter this game as a 14-point favorite, facing a Denver team that’s given up on the season. That was on full display when they allowed Cam Akers to collect 118 yards and three touchdowns on Christmas, and we believe Pacheco and this offense are much better than LA. Isiah has at least 13 carries in seven straight games, recording at least 58 rushing yards in all of those. He could also see a handful of goal-line totes here, with 100 yards and a touchdown in play.
In Consideration: D’Andre Swift (RB – DET): DK $5,300/FD $7,100 vs. CHI
It’s been a frustrating season for Swift, but he’s good whenever he gets the work. With Jamaal Williams nicked up, we could finally get double-digit carries and a handful of targets for this talented back. We also don’t mind that Chicago owns a 26th OPRK against opposing backs.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Christian Watson (WR – GB): $5,900 vs. MIN
Watson has established himself as the top receiving option in Green Bay, and that’s always an intriguing proposition with Aaron Rodgers behind center. He’s got at least six targets in six straight games, scoring seven touchdowns in that span. A player averaging 21 DraftKings points per game for a six-week stretch should be above $7K, and it’s hard to believe Watson is still a sub-$6K player. The matchup is the icing on the cake, though, with Minnesota allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC): $5,600 vs. DEN
This game script concerns us, but Juju’s debut season with the Chiefs has been brilliant. The former Steeler has scored at least 13 DraftKings points seven times this season and would have a much higher average if it weren’t for some injuries. His last game against Denver was dandy, too, picking up nine catches on 11 targets en route to 22.2 DK points. If he does that again, Juju is the best value of the day at just $5,600.
FanDuel
Davante Adams (WR – LV): $8,500 vs. SF
Nobody will use Adams after his dud on Sunday night. He’s had a handful of stinkers with Derek Carr, but his upside is brilliant for a GPP. The Pro Bowler has scored at least 23 FanDuel points on six occasions this year, picking up at least seven targets in all but one game. San Fran is not as scary as it sounds either, with the 49ers owning a 27th OPRK against opposing wideouts. That’s mainly because many teams have to play catch-up in garbage time, and that’ll surely be the case for the Raiders here.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): $7,600 vs. CAR
Godwin has been fantastic in his return from ACL surgery, averaging 7.2 catches on 9.5 targets since Week 4. Those are some of the highest rates in the NFL, and he’d be having a monster season if it weren’t for a lack of touchdowns. He’s still scored in three of his last six games and could be in line for one here, with Carolina owning a 25th OPRK against opposing pass-catchers. We also don’t mind that he had 13 targets in this matchup earlier in the season.
In Consideration: Allen Lazard (WR – GB): DK $5,400/FD $6,200, vs. MIN
Lazard has been playing nearly every snap for Green Bay and could be forced into more targets if Watson has to sit. Even if he doesn’t, Lazard should do damage against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): $4,400 at HOU
Why is DK keeping Engram’s price so low? This guy has established himself as the focal point of Jacksonville’s offense, recording 40 targets over the last four games. That’s the highest total at this position, with Engram leading all tight ends with 23 DraftKings points per game in that span. Houston’s horrible defense won’t slow him down, ranked 26th in points allowed.
FanDuel
Darren Waller (TE – LV): $5,500 vs. SF
Many people may forget how good Waller can be, ranked as a Top-5 tight end throughout most of his career. Injuries have derailed his season but sitting outside the Top-10 in terms of salary is silly. This guy has 21 combined FD points in the two games since his return from IL, and he could be looking at 8-10 targets with Vegas needing to throw a ton in this lopsided matchup.
In Consideration: Travis Kelce (TE – KC): DK $8,100/FD $8,300 vs. DEN
Kelce has nearly doubled the fantasy points of every other tight end in the NFL. Not enough people have been using him every week, and he’s simply the safest option for any position.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
San Francisco 49ers D/ST: $2,900 at LV
This probably isn’t a GPP play, but this pricing is mind-boggling. San Fran has the best defense in the NFL, and they’re sitting below $3K on DraftKings! That would make them a worthy play against anyone, and they shouldn’t have any issues maintaining a 16th-ranked Raiders offense as a 5.5-point favorite.
FanDuel
New England Patriots D/ST: $4,000 vs. MIA
Bill Belichick is always a genius at getting points out of his defense, and that’s certainly the case this season. New England’s D/ST is leading the league with 11.4 FD points per game and is affordable in terms of salary. FanDuel might be concerned about the matchup with Miami, but the Dolphins have lost four straight, scoring 20 or fewer points in three of those. The oddsmakers like the Patriots, too, making them a 2.5-point favorite in a game with a 42-point total.
In Consideration: Kansas City Chiefs D/ST: DK $3,800/FD $4,300 vs. DEN
Denver has the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs. That was on full display when KC’s D/ST dropped 15 DraftKings points in this matchup just three weeks ago.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
