The 2023 NFL season is approaching, and that means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.
Knowing who to target is one of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but sometimes there’s a reason a player is ‘falling’ down draft boards. You need to know when to scoop up value and when to move on. Here are a few of my top players to avoid based on price in 2023 fantasy football drafts. And here is the full list of players I’m avoiding entering 2023 fantasy football drafts.
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Andrew Erickson’s Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are players I’m avoiding in fantasy football drafts.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | ECR: QB8, 74th overall
Despite finishing as the QB8 in fantasy last season, there are valid reasons to consider Trevor Lawrence overrated as a fantasy quarterback for the upcoming 2023 season as the QB8 in average draft position (ADP) — 74th overall.
Limited Fantasy Ceiling: Lawrence had a respectable point-per-game average of 18.6 last season but failed to exhibit a true 20-point-per-game ceiling. With fewer than 300 rushing yards and No. 10 status in expected points per game (on par with Kirk Cousins), Lawrence hasn’t shown the consistent high-level performance that justifies his current fantasy draft position. His 56% top-12 finisher rate from last season (sixth) suggests he is more of a floor player than a ceiling player as a more traditional pocket passer.
Consensus Projections: According to FantasyPros consensus projections, Lawrence is currently ranked as the QB14. The minimal point difference separating him from the QB9 (Kirk Cousins) suggests that Lawrence may not provide significant value as a QB1 option, especially considering the hype surrounding him. Cousins finished with a higher top-6 finisher rate last season (38%) than Lawrence. Lawrence’s top-6 finisher rate (31%) was the same as Tua Tagovailoa‘s.
Alternative Options: If banking on an outlier touchdown rate, it may be wiser to consider other quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott or Geno Smith, all of who could provide similar production at a potentially lower cost. Why are Prescott and Watson going a full round-plus after Lawrence?
Geno Smith averaged more pts per game than Trevor Lawrence in 2022 and goes 6-8 QBS after him. https://t.co/8ZanBng4R0
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 1, 2023
Investing in Lawrence based on his potential alone might not be the most advantageous strategy when there are other proven options available.
Health and Team Factors: The Jaguars’ health advantage last season played a significant role in their overall performance. However, it’s important to note that such factors are not easily replicated year after year. Relying on the same level of team health may not be a reliable strategy for expecting similar fantasy output from Lawrence.
Comparisons to Justin Herbert: Drawing comparisons to Justin Herbert’s 2021 season, it’s essential to recognize that Lawrence has not yet reached the consistent fantasy production that Herbert displayed. Herbert already boasted an average of 22.7 points per game in 2021, showcasing a higher fantasy ceiling compared to Lawrence’s latest performance. But when Herbert failed to deliver last season, he was a major detriment to fantasy rosters. Lawrence has proven less but is already expected to take the leap based on his inflated price tag.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (SEA) | ECR: RB14, 29th overall
Despite his impressive performance in 2022 and his current expert consensus ranking (ECR) as the RB14, there are reasons to consider Kenneth Walker overrated for the upcoming 2023 fantasy season.
Late-Season Surge: In 2022, Walker emerged as a valuable fantasy asset, finishing as the RB9 in points per game and the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny‘s injury. His increased workload and production during this period were a boon for fantasy managers who drafted him late. However, it’s important to consider the circumstances surrounding his success. He had zero competition and benefited significantly from volume to boost his numbers.
Underwhelming Receiving Ability: While Walker demonstrated his ability as a rusher, he underwhelmed as a receiver. His limited involvement in the passing game is a concern, as fantasy points in point per reception (PPR) formats heavily rely on receptions. Walker’s deficiency in this area could limit his overall fantasy value.
Low Rushing Success Rate: Despite his notable rushing performances, Walker had a low rushing success rate, ranking second-to-last among rushers with at least 100 carries. This raises questions about his efficiency and consistency as a runner. Fantasy managers rely on reliability and productivity from their running backs, and Walker’s struggles in this area are a cause for concern. Per FantasyPros boom-or-bust report, Walker owned the second-highest bust rate (29%) among RBs inside the top 20 last season.
Competition from Zach Charbonnet: The addition of Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 draft adds another layer of uncertainty to Walker’s fantasy outlook. Charbonnet brings an impressive skill set, excelling as a receiver and displaying high efficiency as a rusher. The former UCLA running back posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. He also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs. With Charbonnet likely to earn playing time and potentially cut into Walker’s touches, there is a legitimate concern about the second-year back’s workhorse upside.
Considering these factors, fantasy managers should be cautious when evaluating Kenneth Walker as the RB14. While he showcased his explosiveness and ability to handle a heavy workload in 2022, concerns about his receiving skills, low rushing success rate and the presence of Zach Charbonnet suggest that Walker may not be the workhorse much hope for in the 2023 season.
In Walker’s draft range, I’d much rather prefer Chris Olave, DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper, J.K. Dobbins or Miles Sanders.
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