Some players generate a wide range of opinions or a divide within the fantasy football community. These players with a high standard deviation are considered polarizing because the range of opinions, rankings and projections means there isn’t a clear consensus. Some of these players will be busts. Some will be breakouts. Others will be somewhere in between. What matters is identifying why these players are polarizing and then determining just how risky they are and how you value them relative to your league and settings.
Our analysts combed through the expert consensus rankings (ECR) and identified the most polarizing players at each position. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
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Polarizing Running Backs
Who is one RB with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on, and why?
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
“I really like Khalil Herbert, as he was one of the most efficient running backs last year, but Roschon Johnson was one of my favorite prospects this year. Herbert was drafted by the previous regime, and he was never given a full workload last year despite that efficiency. Roschon Johnson was one of the most efficient backs in college football last year but was stuck behind Bijan Robinson, so he had a limited workload. A fourth-round draft pick isn’t a huge investment, but it does tell me the team may not be sold on Herbert. I also believe that Johnson is the best-receiving threat of the three Bears running backs, which would add some value to his profile.”
– Sam Hoppen (FantasyPros)
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
“I remain lower than the consensus on Alexander Mattison. Mattison has been increasingly inefficient yearly in his NFL career. His yards after contact per attempt have dropped in the last four seasons, while his yards per route run has dipped over the last three years. Last season he only managed one run of 15-plus yards with his 74 carries. These aren’t traits you want in a “workhorse back.” Mattison could be the lead guy in Minnesota, but it’s equally possible that one of the other backs on this depth chart overtakes him in the season. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
“Dolphins rookie De’Von Achane quickens my pulse. He has an ECR of RB of RB44 and the second-highest standard deviation of any running back in the top 50. I have him at RB36. Achane has game-breaking 4.32 speed and exceptional contact balance. He’s only 188 pounds, which will scare off a lot of drafters, but Achane averaged 23.2 touches a game at Texas A&M last fall and was routinely asked to run between the tackles. With each passing day, the Dolphins are less likely to sign a veteran RB, leaving Achane to compete with 31-year-old Raheem Mostert and career backup Jeff Wilson in a Miami offense that ranked seventh in DVOA last season. Achane is a hand-in-glove fit for Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone offense and is a terrific value in fantasy drafts.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
“I think I am finally coming around on Joe Mixon. Think he’s being written off a bit after a so-so season in 2022, but there’s a case to be made he could deliver a massive 2023 season in potentially his last year as a Bengal. He plays on a high-powered offense and is due for positive TD regression. He finished 2nd in carries from inside the 10 last season but scored just 5 TDs. He was 6th overall in touches per game. And he has no backfield competition after the Bengals failed to replace Samaje Perine. If he was hitting his age 30-season, there would be obvious concerns. But he will be 27 this year, so I hardly say he’s completely finished as a fantasy asset. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Gus Edwards (RB – BAL)
“Gus Edwards is ranked as RB54, and his rankings range from RB42 all the way down to RB73 in Half-PPR. Consider me extremely interested in Edwards at his current price. On the Ravens depth chart, Edwards is RB2 behind JK Dobbins and is probably the third rushing option in the offense when you take into account Lamar Jackson too. But Dobbins is holding out this summer and possibly still recovering from an injury, giving Edwards a leg up in learning Todd Monken’s new playbook. The offensive line in Baltimore is loaded, Lamar is back, and the only RB ahead of Edwards on the depth chart is falling behind. And oh, by the way, Edwards has never once averaged under 5 yards per carry in an NFL season. At this price, give me ALL the Gus Edwards this season.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
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