We may have just completed Week 1, but it’s never too early to start dealing. Some would argue that early in the season is the best time since you can take advantage of some market inefficiencies. Luckily, FantasyPros has you covered. Not only is there the ‘Who Should I Trade?’ tool where you can get instant feedback, but we’ll dig even deeper into players that should be moved every week in this space. There will be the classic one-for-one deals and deals where multiple pieces would equal one piece, which will be indicated with a ‘-plus’ next to the player’s name. Without further ado, below is the first batch of trades to offer as we kick off the 2023 season.
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The Trade: Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) for Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)-plus
The Reasoning: From the looks of Week 1, Dak Prescott may be quarterbacking a juggernaut of a team. The Dallas defense had a record-setting fantasy day with seven sacks, three turnovers, and two touchdowns. Couple that defense with Pro Bowlers on the other side of the ball in Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb, and you have the makings of a potential champion.
So why trade Dak? If this team is as good as advertised, and they ‘run the damn ball’ like Mike McCarthy wants, Dak won’t be passing nearly as much. If that defense is as good as it was in Week 1, the offense will be about ball control. For example, in Week 1, Dallas had just 25 pass attempts. Meanwhile, they had 30 rush attempts in just 26 minutes of possession. Imagine if they get to 30 or 35 minutes in a game.
On the flip side, the Minnesota Vikings have Kirk Cousins, who last year threw for over 4,500 yards and 29 touchdowns on his way to another QB1 fantasy finish. They’ve since added first-round rookie receiver Jordan Addison, who caught four balls for 61 yards and a touchdown. They’ll also have Pro Bowler TJ Hockenson for an entire season after acquiring him in the middle of the season last year. They also got rid of perennial Pro Bowl running back Davlin Cook in favor of his longtime backup to save money. Cousins will be passing whether the Vikings win or lose this season.
The Trade: Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) for Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI)
The Reasoning: Heading into the season, both Tyler Allgeier and Kenneth Gainwell were considered afterthoughts. For Allgeier, the Falcons spent a top-10 pick on running back Bijan Robinson, which many assumed would end Allgeier’s tenure as the starter. After all, teams will typically expect to rely heavily on any player they spend top-10 capital on, and Robinson fits that bill as the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley.
For Gainwell, he was thought to be behind both Rashaad Penny (signed by the Eagles) and D’Andre Swift (traded to the Eagles) on the depth chart after the departure of Miles Sanders. Of course, the Eagles were playing mind games with all of us with their creative depth charts.
But both Allgeier and Gainwell balled out in Week 1. Allgeier led the Falcons in carries (15) and yards (75) and scored twice. He caught three balls, too, for good measure. Gainwell appeared to be the only running back the Eagles had, as he totaled 18 touches compared to just three for all other Eagles running backs combined. Rashaad Penny was even a healthy scratch for the game.
So why prefer Gainwell over Allgeier? It’s the offense. Allgeier is coming off a 1,000-yard season but played against a defense in Week 1 in Carolina that finished 25th in defensive DVOA. He’s also sure to lose ground (no pun intended) to the rookie Robinson as he gets acclimated to the NFL, and we’re still not sure how high this Falcons offense can go. Gainwell was playing against a top defense and saw the vast majority of carries and snaps. He plays on a top-notch offense with a top-notch quarterback and has no one nearly as talented as Robinson on the team to challenge him. Gainwell is out this week, but that could be a blessing in disguise as you move one good, healthy running back for an injury but potentially great running back.
The Trade: Hunter Henry (TE – NE) for Luke Musgrave (TE – GB)
The Reasoning: There’s no doubt that Hunter Henry is the lead tight end on the Patriots offense. Despite New England bringing in veteran Mike Gesicki in the off-season, Henry staved off the competition and led the tight end room with 63 snaps compared to Gesicki’s 33. Henry then rewarded those fantasy managers who took the plunge with five receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown. But there’s a cap to Henry’s production, with or without Gesicki looming in the background. Henry has never 652 yards or 60 receptions in any season. If he can match that production – again, career-high production – Henry would be serviceable. But it’s a big ask of a player who will be fighting competition for targets from every position.
Then we have rookie Luke Musgrave, Green Bay’s second-round pick this year. He led all Green Bay tight ends with 45 snaps and finished second on the team with 50 receiving yards. Granted, most of those yards came on a broken play, but the fact that Musgrave is already starting will mean his value can only grow.
For the short term, Henry will still have value. He and the Patriots play a Dolphins team in Week 2 that gave up five receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown to Chargers tight ends Donald Parham Jr. and Gerald Everett in Week 1. But Musgrave also plays against a team in Atlanta that gave up a touchdown to Carolina tight end Hayden Hurst last week. Musgrave also currently has the edge when it comes to their respective strength of schedules, with Musgrave having a top-three schedule for fantasy tight ends compared to Henry having the 26th. Swap the veteran for the rookie now before the rest of the league catches on.
Michael Moore is a featured writer at FantasyPros, providing unique insights and in-depth analysis.