Allow me to personally welcome casual players, hardcore players, and newly anointed degenerates alike. NFL football is back, and so is DFS. Week 1 is underway, and we are going to break down some good plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel’s 13-game main slate.
For the betting crowd, make sure to check out BettingPros.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 1 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Howell enters the season as the starter after residing on the bench for the first 17 weeks of last season. In his lone start, he threw for 169 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also added 35 rushing yards. While far from a spectacular outing, he did finish with a respectable 19.3 fantasy points.
The Commanders are hosting the Arizona Cardinals, who allowed the ninth-most adjusted passing yards (3915), the third-most passing touchdowns(29), and the fourth-highest touchdown percentage (4.9%) in the NFL last season. Per Lines.com, the Cardinals have the 31st-ranked defense heading into the 2023 season. In other words, they got worse on paper.
Howell has (potential stacking) weapons around him and enough mobility to add to the stat sheet, and this is not a defense to fear. In fact, it should be a confidence-builder type of game for Howell and company. Coming in under 5K, treat this more like a GPP play than one for cash games but with some sneaky upside.
Carr gets a fresh start in New Orleans and has some shiny new toys around him. Carr averaged a modest 15.5 fantasy points per game last season, which certainly does not ignite the excitement meter. However, the Saints open their season at home, facing a susceptible Titans defense that surrendered an average of 19 points to opposing quarterbacks last season.
The Titans have weapons on offense with newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins and stalwart wildebeest Derrick Henry to run up a score, forcing Carr to drop back and pass more frequently. With a currently healthy Michael Thomas and a blossoming Chris Olave, Carr is poised to make a statement in his first start as a Saint.
While not offering much of a ceiling with his legs, Carr can slice and dice from the pocket and perform above his salary. With an expected low roster percentage, he is a GPP player that allows for allocating salary to other positions. Boring production above cost is still positive production.
Running Backs
Dobbins was frustrating for managers to roster in season-long leagues last season. Despite struggles lingering from his surgically repaired (twice) knee, many of us still recall his near one-legged scamper last season. Dobbins is an explosive playmaker with the ball in his hands and should enter 2023 fully healthy and ready to lead this backfield as he is playing for a new or modified contract.
The Ravens face the Houston Texans, who were absolutely bullied by running backs last season, ranking dead last in that facet. They did spend some money and draft capital to address their defensive woes, but expecting even a mild improvement should not be enough to scare players off of this matchup.
In games where Dobbins had 12 or more carries, he averaged 13.86 PPR points per contest. With the Ravens expected to be playing most of this game with a lead, Dobbins has closer appeal to add a few more garbage time carries.
Dobbins can be played in both cash and GPP contests.
Robinson’s 9.01 fantasy points per game is not necessarily awe-inspiring but does not tell the entire tale. Nor do his other seasonal averages. For his rookie season, Robinson averaged 17 carries for 66.4 rushing yards per game. However, over the last seven weeks of the season, Robinson averaged 11.08 fantasy points per contest, along with 19.7 carries.
A full year removed from the gunshot wound that sidelined him to begin the 2022 season and possibly hampered him longer, Robinson is poised for a clearly defined role on this offense with hints of more work. Head coach Ron Rivera has mentioned wanting to get Robinson involved in the receiving aspect, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has a history of targeting his running backs.
Robinson thrives on early down volume and closing games out. He will have both opportunities in an opening matchup against the Cardinals. At $6.4K, if there are a couple of targets thrown his way, he becomes a fantastic ROI player in a plus matchup.
Robinson Jr. can be used in both cash and GPP games as a high-volume, moderate-floor, upside-ceiling play this weekend in a positive game script environment.
Wide Receivers
Olave finished his rookie season with a productive 1,042 receiving yards despite inconsistent quarterback play. He averaged 13.2 PPR points per game (WR25) last season and a 26% target share. The downside was that despite the heavy target share and production between the numbers, Olave only scored four times, making him a prime candidate for positive regression in this facet of his game.
The Saints host the Titans, ranked as the 32nd defense against the pass last season. Michael Thomas enters the season rumored to be healthy, which could sometimes translate to softer coverage for Olave. Derek Carr represents a noticeable upgrade at the position and has proven to be able to support more than one pass catcher.
The cost and opportunity are great, and the matchup is delightful. Olave can be utilized in cash and GPP games and stacked with Carr ($5300) without busting the salary.
Notching over a 29% target share as a rookie is commendable. Yes, that number saw a spike when Kyle Pitts went down with an injury and yes, this team profiles to operate heavily on the run. The Falcons added Bijan Robinson in the first round of the draft and he will command targets out of the backfield.
Kyle Pitts is healthy and will also be a major factor in the target department. However, that is where the pecking order ends. London, Pitts, and Bijan are going to absorb the vast majority of the Falcons aerial attention.
The Panthers have a good secondary and London will, at times, face some stiffer coverage, as will Pitts. London will get his opportunities and has good size to play big-boy football at the catch point. He’s cheaper than Bijan and just $200 more than Pitts. With the expected target share and enough people looking elsewhere at receiver, London has GPP appeal as moderate-risk, low-owned option at the receiver position.
Tight Ends
There are several key factors to Higbee slotting in as a value play for opening week. Cooper Kupp, unsurprisingly, has been ruled out with lingering hamstring issues. The Seahawks finished the 2022 season as the most friendly opponent for tight ends. The Rams’ defense is not very good, leading to anticipation of them playing from behind. Higbee is averaging 85.5 targets per season over his last four.
While far from a prolific producer, Higbee shines the brightest when other lights are dim. For week one, at least, Cooper Kupp’s torch is extinguished, leaving smaller torches for Van Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Ben Skowronek, and the aforementioned Higbee.
If there is a week to roll Higbee out with more than a prayer, this is definitely one of them. He is one of the preferred GPP plays this week at the position.
Njoku finished as top-ten tight end in six of 14 games last season. He averaged 5.7 targets per game last season. He only scored four times, but three of the four came with Deshaun Watson under center. With additional time to work with Watson, Njoku could be an ascending player at the position.
The Bengals will be playing without both of their starting safeties, increasing Njoku’s week-one appeal in a matchup that could feature some back-and-forth scoring. As the ninth-most expensive tight end on the FanDuel board, he is being priced fairly but represents upside based on diminished defensive coverage.
Njoku is a strong positional play with scoring upside in a potentially high-scoring affair.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
