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7 Stats To Know Before Setting Your Fantasy Lineups (Week 12)

7 Stats To Know Before Setting Your Fantasy Lineups (Week 12)

With our stomachs full of Thanksgiving delights, we fill our minds with advanced stats to help us decide who should enter into our lineups to help us win in Week 12. We have seven stats that will help you see some of the most influential NFL players in a new light and allow you to make the correct decision. Let’s begin in the backfield and break down some running backs.

7 Stats To Know Before Setting Your Fantasy Lineup

Dormammu, I’ve Come To Bargain!

These running backs channel their inner Dr. Strange because they own an enormous piece of the rushing share pie on their teams, leading them to be on the field constantly.

Here are a few of the top-10 rushing share percentage leaders:

Now Brian Robinson and Kenneth Walker’s respective teams played last night. We know what Robinson brings to the table. We also understand what Zach Charbonnet commands if Kenneth Walker remains out of the lineup. However, Joe Mixon and Kyren Williams are important to analyze. Let’s dive into Mixon first.

Mixon handles over 70% of the rushing for the Cincinnati Bengals, and now his team has lost Joe Burrow. Losing Burrow means the squad will become more run-heavy for the rest of the season. Although defenses should crowd the box more often, the Bengals still have Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. That trio will help keep defenders back and allow Mixon to do his thing with the new role within the game plan.

Meanwhile, Williams is finally coming back from injury. The last time we saw him, he was dominating fantasy weekly. Now, with the LA Rams suffering a Cooper Kupp injury right as Williams returns, we could see the return of the beginning of the year when he was an RB1 for your fantasy squad.

Put Back On Your Puka Shells

The Rams have very few talented wide receivers. Plus, Matthew Stafford loves to hyper-target them. Check out the team yards percentages in the NFL. When you do, you’ll notice Puka Nacua is eighth overall with 36.9%.

With Kupp dealing with injury, even if he remains in the field, Stafford may need to lean on Nacua more to move this offense down the field. If Kupp misses this game, it is wheels up for Nacua. You can also even reinsert Tutu Atwell into your flex positions, considering they play the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12.

Invest In The Market

Investing in the market seems to make a lot of cents (get it?). OK, all bad dad jokes aside, you must pay attention to Market Share within your fantasy football research. It can help guide you to players in situations that could benefit your fantasy teams.

Let’s take a look at the top WR TD Market Share:

  1. Jakobi Meyers: 55.6%
  2. Pat Freiermuth: 50%
  3. Mike Evans: 46.7%
  4. Mark Andrews: 46.2%
  5. Marquise Brown: 44.4%
  6. DeAndre Hopkins: 44.4%
  7. Kendrick Bourne: 44.4%
  8. Romeo Doubbs: 44.4%
  9. George Pickens: 42.9%
  10. Courtland Sutton 42.1%

A few names stick out here. One of them is Mike Evans playing against a Colts defense that allows 30+ points at home. You combine that with the Colts running the 11th-most plays on offense, and you have the ingredients for a potential shootout. You then throw in that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can’t stop the pass either, and you know that Evans is in a prime situation this week.

Another few players of note are DeAndre Hopkins and George Pickens. Right now, investing in them is like investing in penny stocks, but they demand a substantial percentage of their teams’ touchdown market shares. You must consider them for a flex role this week.

Touchdowns Make The Fantasy World Go Round

We all know that receptions and yards are tremendous, but touchdowns are the most crucial part of the stat line. Yesterday, I told people on Twitter to lean into Christian Watson because he has the ninth-most endzone targets. It paid off.

Let’s look into some other wide receivers inside the top 10 for endzone targets. We start with Evans, who is second overall with 12 targets. Combining this stat with the above, Evans is a must-play in Week 12.

Courtland Sutton is another player who made the market share list and returns here. Sutton is fifth with 11 endzone targets this season. He must be considered for your lineup, even against a strong Cleveland Browns defense. Sutton has been a touchdown machine, and with these advanced stats backing up his case, he can do it again in Week 12.

Finally, Calvin Ridley is necessary for your lineup in a potential shootout with the Houston Texans. Ridley is sixth in the NFL with 10 targets in the endzone. If you have pieces within this game, you will want to play them.

Arm-Slingers Are Our Favorites

Who doesn’t love a good deep ball? It’s one of the most exciting plays in the game l. Looking at deep ball percentage, we notice rookie Will Levis sits fourth overall in the NFL. If you break the stat down more, he is first overall in current NFL starters with 21%. Levis is live to provide us with the exciting play that could quickly put fantasy points on the board. The Titans play the Panthers, which fits into their run-heavy offensive plans. Still, don’t be shocked if you see Levis uncork multiple deep balls in this game.

Bonus Stats

Today, we are introducing another stat to help build into a few narratives of players such as Ridley, Pickens and Jaylen Waddle. We will break down COV GRADE and EXP FP/RTE. First, look at COV GRADE, aka “coverage grade.” This stat tells you how much this matchup is worth over their typical fantasy point-per-route run average.

Here are the leaders:

  1. Calvin Ridley: +33.2%
  2. George Pickens: +30.5%
  3. Jaylen Waddle: +30.3%

Now, we discuss “EXP FP/RTE,” or expected fantasy points per route run, which tells you what sort of efficiency we should expect this week.

  1. Tyreek Hill: .79
  2. Brandon Aiyuk: .67
  3. A.J. Brown: .65
  4. Jaylen Waddle: .62
  5. Rashee Rice: .62

As you can see, Brandon Aiyuk paid off last night. You also see George Pickens’ name again in these stats to help build on the market share stat. The Steelers, with the new offensive coordinator narrative, face a Bengals defense allowing multiple big plays a game. Expect Pickens to reach his potential in Week 12.

Hopefully, these stats will help you decide who should start in your lineups and help you win in Week 12. Good luck, and enjoy your Thanksgiving leftovers!

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