Welcome back, fellow fantasy football GAMERS! The NFL season is marching steadily toward Week 12, and the fantasy football playoffs are looming large on the horizon. As we step into Week 12, we’re excited to present the latest edition of the 2023 usage report, bringing you the key action items you need as fantasy managers.
- 🏈 Waiver Wire Advice
- 📊 Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- 🤔 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- 🔄 Fantasy Football Trade Tools
This week is more than just football; it’s a tradition, a time to gather with loved ones and cheer for your fantasy teams as you pass the gravy. We’re bringing you a special Thanksgiving edition of our 2023 usage report, “stuffed” with all the insights you need to make smart fantasy moves.
Let’s dive into the action and make this Thanksgiving one for the fantasy football history books! 🦃🏈🌟
Teams off Week 11 bye weeks (No Week 12 bye weeks)
- Atlanta Falcons
- Indianapolis Colts
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints
Week 13 bye weeks
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Chicago Bears
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Minnesota Vikings
- New York Giants
Week 14 bye week
- Arizona Cardinals
- Washington Commanders
Fantasy Football Forecast
Baltimore Ravens
Add Isaiah Likely, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, Hold Keaton Mitchell, Sell Gus Edwards, Drop Justice Hill
In Week 11, the Baltimore Ravens showcased a strong rushing performance coupled with an effective passing game. Gus Edwards led the rushing attack with 12 carries for 62 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring 2 red-zone touchdowns, including a long run of 26 yards. He played 38% of the snaps (25) and caught both of his targets for 8 yards. His red-zone usage remains outstanding. The TDs won’t always be there, so he is more of a sell high – Ravens still have their bye week upcoming along with some less-than-stellar matchups – but no sense moving him if you can’t get any strong return even with the backfield operating more by committee.
Keaton Mitchell contributed 33 yards on 8 carries – by far his largest workload of the season. He also played just one fewer snap than Edwards (36%). An increase from 24% the week before.
Mitchell only saw one target, but he saw only one fewer carry than Edwards in the first half.
Justice Hill was used as a distance third RB, playing just 26% of the snaps, while receiving just one carry. He can be dropped with him falling to RB3 in the pecking order.
Mitchell continues to be put into a position to deliver splash plays and his role is growing in the offense. He is going to see a handful of touches every week based on his explosiveness, but I don’t think it goes more than that while the other RBs remain healthy.
Odell Beckham Jr., who played 33% of the snaps, was a key target in the receiving game, making 4 receptions for 116 yards on a team-high 7 targets (30% Target share, 159 air yards). He’s looked GREAT even though he deals with minor injuries. Needs to be added off waivers.
Zay Flowers, with a 98% snap count, contributed 43 yards on 3 receptions. But as most of us saw on Thursday night, he had a long TD wiped off the board due to a bogus holding penalty. Buy low. The team is going to have to lean on their talented rookie more than ever without Mark Andrews the rest of the way. Back in Week 1, Flowers commanded 10 targets, catching 9 for 78 yards with Andrews out.
Nelson Agholor caught a 37-yard touchdown pass, and Rashod Bateman, playing 79% of the snaps, caught a touchdown as well (2 targets).
Bateman didn’t blow up in the box score aside from the TD – anytime TD cashed – but he operated as the clear-cut WR2. Second in routes run (76%). And as I talked about the last few weeks, I think Bateman is finally healthy. The team needs him now more than ever to step up with the injury to Andrews.
Mark Andrews, Charlie Kolar, and Justice Hill also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Andrews being notably limited on a snap count (11%) after he exited the game early with an injury. Mark Andrews is going to miss the rest of the season with a season-ending ankle injury. Absolute brutal outcome for both the Ravens and fantasy managers alike.
In his absence, Likely only drew two targets. But he caught neither of them as he looked to be out of sync with his quarterback. Likely still should see the biggest workload increase moving forward with Andrews out. He ran a route on 88% of the dropbacks – second most on the team in Week 11.
The Chargers, Bye Week, Rams, Jaguars, 49ers and Dolphins to close out the season.
It’s a top-end schedule for WRs, so they need to be all added as legitimate plug-in-play options. And although Likely bombed back in Week 1, we have seen him produce big games with Andrews before during his rookie season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Sell Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Buy/Sell Ja’Marr Chase
Joe Mixon led the rushing attack with 16 carries for 69 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt, with his longest run being 14 yards. Backup QB Jake Browning added significant yardage with 40 yards on 4 carries, and Trayveon Williams contributed 20 yards on 2 carries. Quarterback Joe Burrow also contributed with a 7-yard run.
In the passing department, Joe Burrow completed 11 of 17 attempts for 101 yards, throwing 1 touchdown without any interceptions. Browning, who played a significant role as well, completed 8 of 14 attempts for 68 yards and a touchdown at the end of the game. The longest pass in the game was for 21 yards.
Tanner Hudson was a key target in the receiving game, making 4 receptions for 49 yards on 4 targets (ran a route on 44% of dropbacks). Trenton Irwin contributed 36 yards on 3 receptions from 5 targets (all from Browning), and Mixon, apart from his rushing contributions, caught 5 passes for 31 yards, including a touchdown from Burrow.
Tyler Boyd, Drew Sample, and Ja’Marr Chase also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Chase catching a touchdown pass.
But now for the long-term fantasy implications. Joe Burrow is going to miss the rest of the season with a wrist injury. Hate selling low, but I think that’s the move that needs to be made before the trade deadline’s close in the majority of fantasy football leagues.
On 17 Browning pass attempts, Irwin was his favorite target followed by Chase. Irwin was Browning’s favorite target, but his role will likely be reduced when Tee Higgins returns.
- Irwin 7 – 41% Target share
- Chase 4 – 24% Target share
- Mixon – 2 targets
- Jackson – 1 target
- Hudson – 2 targets
- Boyd – 2 targets
The rest of the season schedule is also very tough. Entering Thursday night the Bengals had the most difficult schedule based on the opponent’s W-L record.
Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Minnesota, followed by Pittsburgh again and the Chiefs in the fantasy football championships. Woof.
I’m selling Joe Mixon easily on the idea that the Bengals will lean on him more with an inexperienced QB under center. The last thing you want is to overly rely on Mixon after he scored for the fourth time in as many weeks. From Weeks 1-6, Mixon was the RB19 in points per game averaging just north of 10 points per game in half-PPR.
As for Ja’Marr Chase, I want to buy low on the talent and his game-breaking ability. But we saw him struggle out of the gates with an injured Burrow and post a meager 12 yards in a game that saw Browning play a ton.
In the first month of the season, Chase was WR27 in points per game. If I can get a fantasy WR1 for Chase, I’ll likely pivot. But for another copy-past cookie-cutter fantasy WR2, I’d buy.
Still, the schedule is MUCH better for WRs than RBs hence my lean toward buying low on Chase versus Mixon. But it’s risky if this offense just tanks entirely with Browning at QB. Bengals games have gone from potential weekly shootouts to sub-39-point totals and a cloud of dust.
I’d kick the tires on Chase’s price to see where he’s valued heading into Week 12.
Tennessee Titans
Hold/Buy DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, Sell Chigoziem Okonkwo
Derrick Henry led the rushing attack with 10 carries for 38 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. His longest run was 16 yards. Tyjae Spears contributed 14 yards on 4 carries. Spears caught 2 passes for 12 yards. Henry caught a pass for 6 yards on 2 targets (11.8% Target share).
62% snap share for Henry, 45% for Spears. Interesting because in negative game scripts, Henry never out-snaps Spears. By far the most snaps he has played in a big loss this season.
Will Levis completed 13 of 17 attempts for 158 yards, throwing 2 touchdowns without any interceptions. His longest pass was 49 yards.
DeAndre Hopkins was the primary target in the receiving game, making 4 receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets (29.4% Target share). Chris Moore made a significant impact with a 49-yard reception on his only target (5.9% Target share). Moore played the most snaps at WR (75%).
DT Jeffery Simmons had a rare reception for 2 yards and a touchdown on his lone target (5.9% Target share).
I noted Josh Whyle got two red-zone targets last week. This week, he played the same amount of snaps as Chigoziem Okonkwo (40%). It’s over for Chig.
Kyle Philips also could not overcome WR4 usage. Woof.
The Panthers are up next for the Titans. Back at home. 4 of their last 5 games are at home, where they play so much better.
It’s an awesome bounce-back spot for somebody like Derrick Henry and the Tennessee offense. This Week 11 game was bizarre as the Titans ran just 38 offensive plays. The Titans rank last in the NFL in that category this season (58).
Then it’s the Colts, Dolphins, Texans, Seattle and Houston again. Overall it’s a favorable schedule for for the offense to produce fantasy points. It’s a top-5 rest-of-season schedule for RBs.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Travis Etienne, Sell Calvin Ridley, Buy Christian Kirk, Add Zay Jones
Travis Etienne Jr. led with 14 carries for 52 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per attempt. His longest run was 11 yards. Etienne, in addition to his rushing duties, caught 3 passes for 7 yards on 3 targets (9.4% Target share).
Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson added 21 and 20 yards, respectively, on 9 and 7 carries. Mostly garbage time. ETN is still a bell cow. Buy him after back-to-back middling games.
Trevor Lawrence contributed 17 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 carries.
Calvin Ridley was the primary target in the receiving game, catching 7 of his 9 targets (28.1% Target share) for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns. Naturally, Zay Jones was back to Ridley balls out.
I think the splits with a Jones are somewhat noisy – as Ridley has been just more matchup-dependent based on the defense he has faced – but I do want to provide some semblance of why I think Jones being active helps Ridley be more productive. Pointing specifically to Weeks 1, 5 and last week. Jones playing allows the Jaguars to be more versatile with how they deploy Ridley. He’s no longer Pidgeon-held to being stuck on the perimeter running strictly go-routes and curls. He played his most slot snaps of the year in Week 11. Ridley can be used more over the middle/intermediate level of the field as an actual route-runner.
Christian Kirk contributed with 48 yards on 3 receptions from 6 targets (19% Target share). Johnson made a significant impact with a 34-yard reception on his lone target, and Evan Engram caught 4 passes for 29 yards on 6 targets (19% Target share).
Zay Jones also contributed to the receiving efforts, adding 20 yards on 4 receptions (4 targets). Played his normal role, running a route on 77% of dropbacks.
Even with Jones back, I’d still be wary of holding Ridley too close. Prime time to sell high after a big boom game against a horrible defense. And it’s the perfect time to buy Christian Kirk, who has been Lawrence’s go-to guy all season.
Don’t let one game let you forget, Ridley has been nothing more than a boom-or-bust fantasy WR3 this season.
The Texans, Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Buccaneers over the next 5 weeks for Jacksonville.
Chicago Bears
Sell Khalil Herbert, Buy D.J. Moore
Justin Fields led with 18 carries for 104 yards, averaging an impressive 5.8 yards per carry with his longest run being 29 yards. Khalil Herbert contributed 35 yards on 16 carries, and Roschon Johnson added 30 yards on 6 carries. D’Onta Foreman scored a rushing touchdown, contributing 14 yards on 6 carries (3 red-zone carries). He left the game with an injury.
Herbert, apart from his rushing duties, caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 3 targets (13.6% Target share).
In the first half… Foreman had 5 carries for 1 yard (TD), while Herbert had 4 carries for 5 yards (2 targets). Herbert also ran the most routes.
Total Bears RB snap counts:
- Khalil Herbert: 43%
- Roschon Johnson: 33%
- D’Onta Foreman: 24%
Herbert looks like the RB1 going forward, but again, you do not want to invest long-term in this backfield. Bottom schedule ranking for the rest of the season for fantasy RBs. They still have their bye week. With Foreman still seeing goal-line work and RJ looking good, this backfield is a mess.
D.J. Moore was the primary target in the receiving game, making 7 receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets (40.9% Target share). Moore’s 39-yard reception was the highlight of the passing game. He led all WRs in weighted opportunity in Week 11.
Cole Kmet also contributed with 20 yards on 3 receptions from 4 targets (18.2% Target share). Equanimeous St. Brown added 19 yards on 2 receptions. Darnell Mooney was held to just one catch for 24 yards. Fields targeted him twice deep but to no avail (plays erased by penalties).
The Vikings are the next matchup for Chicago before a Week 13 bye week. Then it’s the Lions (again), Browns, Cardinals and Falcons.
Detroit Lions
Add Jameson Williams, Buy David Montgomery, Hold Jahmyr Gibbs,
David Montgomery led the rushing attack with 12 carries for 76 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown. His longest run was 20 yards and he also had 2 targets. Jahmyr Gibbs added 36 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries. Another week he saw red-zone work (3 red-zone carries).
Gibbs, apart from his rushing contributions, caught 6 passes for 59 yards on 6 targets (17.1% Target share).
In the first half:
David Montgomery
6 carries
Jahmyr Gibbs
4 carries and 3 targets. Rushing TD.
Sun God – 8 targets 6-53-1
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 19, 2023
Gibbs out-snapped Montgomery 56% to 40%. Second straight game Gibbs played more than Monty. Same snap usage.
Jared Goff completed 23 of 35 attempts for 236 yards, throwing 2 touchdowns but also 3 interceptions.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the primary target in the receiving game, making 8 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets (31.4% Target share). Jameson Williams contributed with 44 yards and a touchdown on 2 receptions from 3 targets.
Jamo played 65% of the snaps, and commanded 83 air yards. He is starting to push Josh Reynolds as the WR2 in the offense, and it’s coming at the perfect time. Add him. He ran a route on 66% of dropbacks. Season-highs in snaps and routes again. And he caught a key TD that helped the Lions win. Buy the second year WR who is starting to turn the corner.
FWIW, I’d much rather play Jamo than any Dallas WR sub-4K on DraftKings on the Thursday-only slate. He’s $3,400.
Sam LaPorta and Reynolds also contributed to the receiving efforts, with LaPorta catching 3 passes for 18 yards (5 targets).
The Packers (Thanksgiving), Saints, Bears, Broncos, Vikings and Cowboys are following up for the Lions.
It’s a great schedule overall for the Lions offense.
Los Angeles Chargers
Drop Quentin Johnston, Add Jalen Guyton, Donald Parham Jr., Buy Austin Ekeler
Justin Herbert led the Chargers with 73 rushing yards on 8 carries. Austin Ekeler added 64 yards on 10 carries, while Joshua Kelley contributed 13 yards on 6 carries. Ekeler caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 3 targets (8.3% Target share). Ekeler still also saw a strong snap share at 71%. He also has a top-5 rest-of-season schedule for RBs.
Keenan Allen was the primary target in the receiving game, making 10 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets (44.4% Target share). Donald Parham Jr. contributed with 57 yards on 4 receptions from 6 targets (16.7% Target share). Played 72% of the snaps and ran a route on 70% of dropbacks. Desperation add if Gerald Everett misses practices this week.
Stone Smartt had a notable 51-yard touchdown reception on his lone target (35% snap share).
Quentin Johnston and Alex Erickson also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Johnston catching 2 passes for 21 yards (6 Targets) and Erickson adding 12 yards on a single reception. Erickson MY GUY. 100% catch rate. YLTSI. Off the practice squad, Erickson played 78% of the snaps.
And QJ dropped a perfectly thrown pass by Herbert in the 4th quarter. It was BAD. YHTSI. It’s not happening for Johnston. All the usage and the QB play you could want. Not firing. Rather stash Jaylen Guyton – who missed this game. Bad matchup in Week 12 anyway.
BAL is the next game for the Bolts, followed by the Broncos, Raiders, Bills and Broncos (again). It’s the No. 1-most difficult schedule for WRs. Permission to sell high on Keenan Allen granted.
Green Bay Packers
Add Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Add/Sell A.J. Dillon, Sell Christian Watson, Stash GB DST
Jayden Reed led the team with 46 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 3 carries, averaging an impressive 15.3 yards per carry with his longest run being 32 yards for a TD. A.J. Dillon added 29 yards on 14 carries, and Aaron Jones contributed 14 yards on 4 carries (21% snap share). Both Jones and Emmanuel Wilson left with injuries and did not return. Dillon also caught 4 passes for 32 yards.
Jordan Love completed 27 of 40 attempts for 322 yards, throwing 2 touchdowns without any interceptions.
Dontayvion Wicks was a significant target in the receiving game, making 3 receptions for 91 yards on 5 targets (13.2% Target share). Did suffer a head injury in the contest.
Romeo Doubs contributed with 53 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions from 6 targets (15.8% Target share). Reed, apart from his rushing contributions, caught 4 passes for 46 yards on 6 targets (15.8% Target share). He led the team in targets in the first half and finished with just one fewer route than Watson (77%). He’s breaking out folks. And better yet, just $4,200 on DraftKings. 39.5 receiving yards is his Week 12 line on Prizepicks. Put respect on this man. OVER.
Christian Watson scored a touchdown on one of his 2 receptions. His first target came at the end of the first half. He also played the most snaps (72%) and ran the most routes. He’s not the alpha in the offense he was drafted in fantasy football leagues to be. Sell high after the TD score.
Luke Musgrave caught 4 of his 6 targets for 28 yards. Only played 64% of the snaps as the team has been featuring more of fellow rookie tight end, Tucker Kraft (42% snap share). Still, Musgrave is getting the route usage we need. Good matchup this week.
The Lions (Thursday), Chiefs, Giants, Buccaneers Panthers and Vikings are next for the GB Packers. Weeks 15-17 are the Buccaneers, Panthers and Minnesota. Note the easy schedule. Stash the DST down the line.
And the short turnaround suggests an RB1 week for A.J. Dillon that he will undoubtedly disappoint us in. He played 72% of the snaps with both other RBs going down. He’s $5,400 and will be super chalky. If you can sell high on the “idea” he can be a fantasy RB1, I think I would do so.
Arizona Cardinals
Avoid Greg Dortch, Buy Marquise Brown, Add Michael Wilson, Buy James Conner
James Conner led with 14 carries for 62 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per attempt. His longest run was 14 yards. Conner caught 2 passes for just 1 yard on 3 targets (10.3% Target share). Also played 69% of the snaps as the bell cow. Buy low after he failed to find the end zone.
Kyler Murray added significant yardage with 51 yards and a touchdown on 7 carries, including a long run of 22 yards. Tony Jones had one carry (26% snap share).
Greg Dortch was the most targeted receiver, making 6 receptions for 76 yards on 8 targets (27.6% Target share). Dortch played 75% of the snaps with Michael Wilson out. Unfortunately, we have seen this story before where the team does not go back to Dortch after the big game. Expect Wilson to get his job back if he is healthy. Note the Zach Pascal was also inactive, which thrust Dortch into a larger role.
Rondale Moore had a notable 48-yard touchdown reception on his only target (3.4% Target share). Trey McBride contributed with 43 yards on 5 receptions from 7 targets (24.1% Target share). He played 100% of the snaps. YLTSI.
Marquise Brown and Geoff Swaim also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Brown catching 2 passes for 18 yards (5 targets, 91 air yards) and Swaim adding 15 yards on 2 receptions. Brown only had two targets in the first half.
Still, the downfield looks are there, and the matchups are sublime. Buy Hollywood Brown for dirt cheap ahead of the fantasy playoffs. Ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
The Cardinals face the Rams and Steelers over the next 2 games, followed by the bye week. Then it’s SF, CHI and PHI. Top-7 schedule ROS for WRs.
Houston Texans
Buy Nico Collins, Add Noah Brown, Sell Devin Singletary,
Devin Singletary led Houston with 22 carries for 112 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown. Also caught two passes. 85% snap share. RB1 until Dameon Pierce returns. Sell high if you can after Pierce practiced last week. Not like Singletary has a long track record of maintaining workhorse status as a team’s RB1.
C.J. Stroud completed 27 of 37 attempts for 336 yards, throwing 2 touchdowns but also 3 interceptions. Threw for 259 and two in the first half.
Tank Dell was the primary target in the receiving game (again), making 8 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets (26.3% Target share). He has 120 yards before halftime on six grabs. Led the team in routes run.
Nico Collins contributed 65 yards on 7 receptions from 11 targets (29% Target share, 88 air yards). He didn’t score, but Stroud was looking at him near paydirt as he commanded 4 red-zone targets.
Talked about Nico Collins as a buy-low last week, coming off his injury. With him far from the top of minds of fantasy gamers with Dell exploding, he’s probably a sharp buy high target as a access point to the Texans’ passing game. Left production on the table this past week and was the Target share leader in the passing game.
Robert Woods caught 5 passes for 44 yards on 8 targets (21.1% Target share).
Dalton Schultz and Steven Sims Jr. also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Schultz catching 2 passes for 32 yards and a touchdown (3 targets) and Sims adding 25 yards on 2 receptions.
Noah Brown missed this game, so he might get dropped. Add him to get access to the Texans offense.
Jacksonville is next followed by Denver, the Jets and the Titans.
Las Vegas Raiders
Sell Davante Adams, Add Michael Mayer, Sell Josh Jacobs, Jakobi Meyers
Josh Jacobs totaled 14 carries for 39 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry with his longest run being 9 yards. He caught one pass for 12 yards. 77% snap share. Ameer Abdullah was used curiously more as a receiver in this contest. With the schedule coming up, I’d just move away from Jacobs. The Chiefs, a bye week and Vikings are up next for LV in their next 3 weeks.
In the passing department, Aidan O’Connell completed 24 of 41 attempts for 271 yards, throwing 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. His longest pass was 46 yards.
Davante Adams was the primary target in the receiving game, making 7 receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets (34% Target share, 195 air yards). Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer each contributed significantly, with Meyers catching 4 passes for 49 yards from 5 targets (13% Target share) and Mayer adding 46 yards on 4 receptions, also from 5 targets (13% Target share). The rookie tight end played 80% of the snaps.
Adams was great in this contest, but the schedule and potential roller coaster ride that is O’Connell make him a player worth moving away from as we enter the fantasy football postseason.
Hunter Renfrow caught all 5 of his targets for 42 yards, and Tre Tucker managed 36 yards on 2 receptions from 7 targets (18% Target share, 114 air yards).
The Chiefs, a bye week and the Vikings are up next for LV in their next 3 weeks.
Miami Dolphins
Sell/Hold Raheem Mostert, Add Salvon Ahmed, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Raheem Mostert led Miami with 22 carries for 86 yards, averaging 3.9 yards per carry with his longest run being 10 yards. Salvon Ahmed added minimal yardage, rushing for 6 yards on 3 carries. Ahmed caught a touchdown pass on 1 of his 3 targets. Mostert earned 2 targets and ran a route on 71% of dropbacks.
Devon Achane also had a single carry before exiting with a knee injury ☹. 1 target. He was trying to get back in the game, but the coaches kept him on the sideline.
Mostert was a straight-up bellcow as a rusher, earning 79% of the snaps. Ahmed played 29% of the snaps with Jeff Wilson Jr. a healthy scratch. Ahmed did get banged up toward the end of the game.
But again, Achane started the game. And I think if he get relatively positive injury news, he should be okay. I’d sell high on Mostert as a result. But with Achane being labeled day-to-day, it might be worth it just to hold Mostert at this point. Wouldn’t bet he plays on a short week (Black Friday).
Tyreek Hill was the primary target in the receiving game, making 10 receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets (28.2% Target share). And he left the game for a brief moment.
Jaylen Waddle contributed with 55 yards on 4 receptions from 8 targets (20.5% Target share). River Cracraft caught 2 passes for 39 yards on 2 targets (5.1% Target share).
Cedrick Wilson Jr. (4 targets) and Alec Ingold (4 targets) and Julian Hill also contributed to the receiving efforts. Wilson played the second-most WR snaps (64%). He’s a rare WR handcuff for Waddle/Hill.
Hill stepped in as the TE1 with Durham Smythe out.
Miami has a New York (Jets) on Black Friday, then the Commanders, Titans, Jets (again) and Cowboys in the next 5 weeks.
New York Giants
Sell Saquon Barkley, Add Giants WRs
Saquon Barkley tallied 14 carries for 83 yards. In the first half, he was at 6 carries for -2 yards. Barkley also caught 4 passes for 57 yards and scored 2 touchdowns on 5 targets (19.2% Target share). 91% snap share. He is the Giants’ entire offense. And he probably just had his best game against the weakest opponent on the schedule with NE, GB, NO, PHI and the Rams rounding out their remaining schedule. Bottom-8 schedule over the rest of the season.
In the passing department, Tommy DeVito completed 18 of 26 attempts for 246 yards, throwing 3 touchdowns without any interceptions. Still, he was sacked nine times for a loss of 45 yards. Do not overlook that he took 9 sacks.
Darius Slayton was the primary target in the receiving game, making 4 receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets (19.2% Target share). All the production came in the first half as he left with an injury.
Daniel Bellinger contributed 38 yards on 3 receptions from 3 targets (11.5% Target share).
Wan’Dale Robinson (4 targets) Isaiah Hodgins (3 targets) and Jalen Hyatt also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Robinson catching 3 passes for 35 yards and Hodgins adding 22 yards on 2 receptions. Robinson was the snap/route runs leader (67%), while Hyatt had another target wiped away due to a penalty. He finished second in routes run.
Both guys are potential adds in a plus matchup versus the Patriots. But with all 16 teams in action, you probably don’t have to go that deep. Also, would need Slayton to miss.
The Patriots are next before a bye week.
Washington Commanders
Add Logan Thomas, Hold Brian Robinson, Drop Jahan Dotson
Brian Robinson Jr. led the Commanders’ ground attack with 17 carries for 73 yards (10 carries in the first half) averaging 4.3 yards per attempt. His longest run was 18 yards. Chris Rodriguez added significant yardage with 43 yards on 6 carries (20% snap share), and Sam Howell contributed 35 yards and a touchdown on 3 carries. C-Rod also lost a fumble. Woof. Derrick Gore also made a notable 23-yard run on his two carries and got a random red-zone carry.
Robinson was the most targeted receiver, making 7 receptions for 58 yards on 9 targets (20.5% Target share). He also saw a massive snap share, at 78%.
Antonio Gibson did not play in this game. If AG misses more time – as he is known to do with a toe that seemingly is never healthy – B-Rob is going to be a top-10 fantasy RB the rest of the way even with a tougher schedule. A three-down workload will likely help him overcome the tougher schedule.
Tight end Logan Thomas also contributed with 58 yards on 5 receptions from 8 targets (18.2% Target share). Add him if you need a tight end streamer or Mark Andrews replacement.
Terry McLaurin caught 5 passes for 43 yards on 7 targets (15.9% Target share).
Jahan Dotson, Byron Pringle, and John Bates were also involved in the receiving game, with Dotson catching a touchdown pass (3 for 23 on 4 targets). Dotson’s usage remains completely focused on whether or not Curtis Samuel is active. Dotson had 1 target in the 1st half. Also did not start the game.
He wasn’t targeted at all until Samuel was ejected. Woof.
The Cowboys are up next on Thanksgiving, followed by Miami, bye week, the Rams, Jets and 49ers.
Note that the Commanders are playing a TON of different WRs in their pass-heavy offense. With Samuel missing the second half, Jamison Crowder played a larger role – as he did when Samuel missed time early this season.
But note that both Dyami Brown and Byron Pringle play roles as WR4s in the offense. I’d gravitate toward Brown at $3K on DraftKings for the Thanksgiving slate for a cheap punt play. 3-plus targets in 2 of the last 3 games. He’s a former UNC teammate of Sam Howell, and often used deep downfield.
Cleveland Browns
Add David Njoku, Buy Jerome Ford, Sell Elijah Moore, Sell Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt rumbled for 12 carries for 36 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per attempt. His longest run was 16 yards but he only had four carries in the first half. Jerome Ford also had 12 carries, gaining 31 yards and scoring a touchdown from the 1-yard line. 10 carries in the first half. Ford also caught 2 passes for 8 yards. Hunt caught all three of his targets for 1 yard.
Ford played 49% of the snaps to Hunt’s 44% snap rate. He was also the preferred red-zone back, earning two carries inside the 6-yard line while leading the backfield in routes run.
Even though the yardage totals were similar, Ford is doing more in this backfield than Hunt. Buy him ahead of a SMASH spot against the Broncos’ atrocious run defense.
Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson contributed 20 yards on 3 carries. Thompson-Robinson completed 24 of 43 attempts for 165 yards, but he didn’t throw any touchdown passes and was intercepted once.
Elijah Moore was the primary target in the receiving game, making 6 receptions for 60 yards on 7 targets (17.1% Target share).
David Njoku was heavily targeted, catching 7 passes for 56 yards on 15 targets! (37% Target share).
Amari Cooper contributed 34 yards on 4 receptions from 8 targets (19.5% Target share, 42% air yards share).
Schedule: DEN, LAR and JAC.
Njoku is a MUST-START next week against Denver, a team that is BLEEDING production to tight ends this season. And he has been DTR’s favorite target in both the rookie’s starts. Not to mention, Njoku has the No. 1 SOS for fantasy tight ends in 2023.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Buy Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Sell Najee Harris, George Pickens, Add Pat Freiermuth
Jaylen Warren led the rushing attack with an impressive 129 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, averaging a remarkable 14.3 yards per carry. His longest run was a notable 74-yarder and he caught all 3 passes for 16 yards on 3 targets (12% Target share). Najee Harris contributed 35 yards on 12 carries. 2 targets. Woof. 5 carries in the first half.
Harris saw his snaps bounce back to 57% versus Warren’s 45%. But I’d pay less attention to the snaps when Warren would have played MORE had he not been ripping off chunk gains left and right.
As always, buy Warren and sell Harris. The Steelers can only keep their best offensive playmaker behind Harris for so long. And the matchups the next 2 weeks are divine for the ground attack to be productive. It’s a top-5 rest-of-season schedule for RBs.
Kenny Pickett completed 15 of 28 attempts for 106 yards. He didn’t throw any touchdown passes or interceptions, and his longest pass was for 14 yards. Double woof.
George Pickens was the most productive receiver, making 4 receptions for 38 yards on 6 targets (24% Target share). Allen Robinson contributed 20 yards on 3 receptions from 4 targets (16% Target share).
Diontae Johnson, targeted 8 times (32% Target share, 100-plus air yards), had 16 yards on 2 receptions. Triple Woof. Still want to buy low based on the overall usage he is seeing with plus-matchups approaching.
Pat Freiermuth added 7 yards on his sole reception. He played 53% of the snaps in his return from IR. Expect his snaps to grow. And he was a bust in a horrible matchup. Better matchups are coming up.
Steelers also got out-gained…again. But this time they lost.
The Steelers’ upcoming schedule: Bengals (bet the under), Cardinals, Patriots and Colts.
Dallas Cowboys
Add Rico Dowdle, Buy Tony Pollard, Add Brandin Cooks, Hold CeeDee Lamb, Buy Jalen Tolbert, Michael Gallup
Tony Pollard led with 12 carries for 61 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt and scoring a touchdown!!! Added 4 catches on 5 targets while playing his usual 62% snap share. His longest run was 22 yards. Rico Dowdle added 23 yards on 8 carries – mixed in some at the beginning of the game while playing 29% of the snaps. Still don’t think Dowdle has a ton of standalone value. But at worst, he is a high-end handcuff for Pollard managers.
Brandin Cooks was a notable target in the receiving game, making 3 receptions for 42 yards on 4 targets (10% Target share). Cooks is by far and away the WR2 in this offense and the only guy you can confidently play on Thanksgiving besides the normal guys. Add Cooks if you need a WR with the schedule favoring DAL WRs for the rest of the season.
Lamb contributed with 38 yards and a touchdown on 6 receptions from 9 targets (22.5% Target share). Jake Ferguson and Michael Gallup each added to the receiving efforts, with Ferguson catching 3 passes for 32 yards and Gallup adding 31 yards on 3 receptions.
Gallup saw all his targets in the first half (5) including a red-zone opportunity. He only played 35% of the snaps overall.
Jalen Tolbert ended with 5 targets, four came in the first half. 42% snap share.
Michael Gallup tied with Lamb for team lead with 5 targets.
4 targets for Jalen Tolbert
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 19, 2023
Overall, the usage has been trending more in favor of Tolbert against Gallup in the last 3 weeks. In traditional season-long leagues, you are not playing either guy with all teams in action. But with the Thanksgiving DFS slate coming up, selecting the right Cowboys WR against Washington could pay dividends.
Tolbert is probably a “safer” floor play given the usage floor he is providing. He is also cheaper at $3,000 versus Gallup at $3,700. From a points-per-dollar play, Tolbert makes the most sense as we have seen him get to second on the team in routes run in the last few weeks.
But again, this is all usage-based because Tolbert didn’t play well in this game. Or the week before. Ten targets in the last 2 games as turned into 4 catches for 14 yards. Woof.
Meanwhile, Gallup’s dip in snaps can be somewhat related to the blow-out victory as he didn’t play at all in the fourth quarter, while Tolbert did.
The Commanders (Thanksgiving) and Seahawks are the next 2 games for Dallas. Then it’s Philly, the Bills and Dolphins.
It’s a top-3 rest-of-season schedule for QBs.
Carolina Panthers
Sell Chuba Hubbard, Drop Jonathan Mingo, Hold Adam Thielen
Chuba Hubbard led the Panthers with 10 carries for 57 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt with his longest run being 14 yards. Miles Sanders added 50 yards on 11 carries (3 red-zone carries), and quarterback Bryce Young contributed 3 yards on 2 carries.
Hubbard and Sanders were involved in the passing game as well, with Hubbard catching 2 passes for 8 yards and Sanders adding 2 yards on a single reception. Spilt routes.
Panthers split backfield
7 carries for Chuba Hubbard
6 carries for Miles Sanders
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 19, 2023
The first half was a split in carries, with Sanders getting more work in the second half for the second straight week. Overall snaps were 49% for Hubbard and 46% for Miles Sanders.
Sanders is starting to get more involved in recent weeks, making this a tough 50/50 split on a bad offense. Not ideal, especially with the BRUTAL schedule coming up. Get out of this backfield.
Adam Thielen was the No. 1 target, making 8 receptions for 74 yards on 11 targets (42.3% Target share). Dallas plays a ton of man coverage, which Thielen has been better in. Also, Frank Reich taking back play-calling duties was a major boost for Thielen. Should see plenty of volume in the next 2 weeks giving him a nice floor.
Stephen Sullivan had a notable 20-yard reception on his only target (3.8% Target share).
Tight end Tommy Tremble also contributed to the receiving efforts catching a 4-yard touchdown pass. He dominated the snaps (76%) with Hayden Hurst out due to a concussion.
Tennessee is next, followed by Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta and Green Bay.
San Francisco 49ers
Sell/Hold George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Buy Brandon Aiyuk
Christian McCaffrey led with 21 carries for 78 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with his longest run being 12 yards. Elijah Mitchell added 24 yards on 4 carries. McCaffrey, apart from his rushing contributions, caught 5 passes for 25 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets (20% Target share). Jauan Jennings was targeted once but did not make a reception.
Brock Purdy completed an efficient 21 of 25 attempts for 333 yards, throwing 3 touchdowns without any interceptions.
Brandon Aiyuk was a significant target in the receiving game, making 5 receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown on 6 targets (24% Target share, 45% air yards share). Straight alpha that would be posting Justin Jefferson-esque numbers if he got the same volume.
George Kittle contributed with 89 yards and a touchdown on 8 receptions from 9 targets (36% Target share). Rinse and repeat folks. After Kittle BOOMs, you sell high. However, I will add the caveat that his BOOM upside could be a complete game-changer in the fantasy playoffs.
Deebo Samuel added 63 yards on 3 receptions (4 targets). Most of it came on one catch. When everybody is healthy, Samuel is the most likely odd man out in the offense.
The Seahawks take on the 49ers on Thursday night in Week 12, followed by the Eagles, Seahawks (again) and Cardinals.
It’s a top-3 rest-of-season schedule for WRs for the rest of the season per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Add Cade Otton, Hold Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Add Trey Palmer
Rachaad White totaled 9 carries for 30 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt and scoring a touchdown. His longest run was 7 yards. Chase Edmonds added 8 yards on 4 carries. White played 80% of the snaps. No committee here, but Edmonds looks like the handcuff to White at this point.
Cade Otton was a notable target in the receiving game, making 4 receptions for 49 yards on 5 targets (12% Target share). He was more involved than the box score suggests, as he was targeted 2 more times on plays with penalties. Add him if you need a tight end. He plays all the snaps.
Mike Evans contributed with 43 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions from 12 targets (28% Target share, 174 air yards). Rakim Jarrett had a notable 41-yard reception on one of his 2 targets.
Chris Godwin, White, and Trey Palmer also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Godwin catching 6 passes for 39 yards (7 targets) and White adding 28 yards on 6 receptions (7 targets). Trey Palmer earned 6 targets catching 4 for 22 yards. Palmer maintained the WR3 role
$3,100 on DraftKings in Week 12 after running a route on 78% of dropbacks.
The Colts are the next for Tampa Bay followed by the Panthers, Falcons, Packers, and Jaguars.
Solid schedule upcoming for the WRs. Again, another lackluster game from Godwin, but he still is seeing plenty of volume. Benefits from an easy schedule.
New York Jets
Buy Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall
The New York Jets had a horrible rushing output, led by Breece Hall who accumulated 23 yards on 10 carries, averaging 2.3 yards per attempt. Woof. His longest run was 14 yards.
Dalvin Cook contributed 13 yards on 2 carries. Rookie Israel Abanikanda had a notable 11-yard run on his only carry. Cook only played 25% of the snaps to Hall’s 63%.
The Jets’ passing game was less effective. Zach Wilson completed 7 of 15 passes for 81 yards, including a touchdown and an interception, while taking five sacks. Tim Boyle, who also saw action after the game was out of reach, completed 7 of 14 attempts for 33 yards and an interception, and was sacked once. The Wilson era is over. Garrett Wilson managers can rejoice.
In the receiving department, running back Breece Hall was the top target, making 5 receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown on 6 targets (21.4% Target share). Jeremy Ruckert contributed with 25 yards on 3 receptions from 4 targets (14.3% Target share). Tyler Conklin and Brandin Echols each added to the receiving efforts, with Conklin catching 2 passes for 18 yards (3 targets) and Echols securing a single catch for 18 yards.
Garrett Wilson and Xavier Gipson also “contributed” to the receiving game, though with limited success. Wilson caught just 2 passes (both from Tim Boyle) for 9 yards from 8 targets (28.6% Target share, 100-plus air yards), and Gipson made a 7-yard reception. Good lord. Allen Lazard also looks to have been leap-frogged by Gipson based on the prior’s superior snap share (79% vs. 65%).
The Jets’ schedule over the remainder of the season is still favorable. Dolphins are up next followed by Falcons, Texans and Dolphins (again). It’s a top-3 rest-of-season schedule for QBs.
But not sure that matters with the current state of QB affairs…
But with the team officially going away from Zach Wilson, then Garrett Wilson becomes a screaming buy target. This was the one really bad game Wilson has had with the former BYU QB under center. He’s stayed afloat most of the season because he’s just that good. In Boyle we trust.
Buy low on Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Note that Hall’s schedule as a fantasy RB is a bit tougher over the ROS.
Buffalo Bills
Add Khalil Shakir, Sell James Cook, Gabe Davis
The Buffalo Bills’ ground game was paced by James Cook, who amassed 73 yards on 17 carries, averaging 4.3 yards per carry with his longest run being 12 yards. He played 46% of the snaps – same as last week.
Latavius Murray contributed 35 yards on 10 carries, while quarterback Josh Allen added 15 yards on 5 carries. 32% snap share.
Murray and Cook split routes, while neither scored on the ground. Cook showcased his versatility with 29 receiving yards and a touchdown on 3 catches with 4 targets.
Scatback and long-time truther Ty Johnson had a productive outing with 47 yards and a touchdown on 3 receptions from 3 targets (10.3% Target share). Also tallied 3 carries while tallying a 21% snap share.
With more and more RBs being used in this backfield, I’ll try to sell high on Cook after the receiving TD. The schedule is rough for RBs: Eagles, Bye Week, Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers.
Khalil Shakir emerged as a significant contributor, securing 3 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets (14% Target share, 74% snap share). Dalton Kincaid also was a key target, catching 6 passes for 46 yards on 7 targets (24.1% Target share).
Stefon Diggs added 27 yards on 4 receptions with a team-high 8 targets.
Gabe Davis did not have a single target…despite playing 88% of the snaps. Technically, he did have one target, but it was erased by a holding call.
Even so, Davis’ role in this offense has been erased by the emergence of both Skair and Kincaid.
The Bills’ next matchups are the Eagles, Bye Week, Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers.
Buffalo’s defense might be in even more trouble in Week 12 after they lost both Taron Johnson and Taylor Rapp on a scary collision versus the Jets.
Seattle Seahawks
Sell Zach Charbonnet, Buy DK Metcalf, Hold Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell Tyler Lockett
Zach Charbonnet led the rushing attack with 15 carries for 47 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. His longest run was 11 yards. Kenneth Walker III added 18 yards on 4 carries, but left this game early with an oblique injury and did not return. Charbs was a full-blown workhorse after Walker left the game. He played 85% of the snaps.
DeeJay Dallas contributed 4 yards on his single carry.
However, the Seahawks have one of the tougher schedules rest of the season for RBs. If you can flip Charbonnet solely based on the bell cow usage to the Walker manager…I’d pull the trigger.
Geno Smith completed 22 of 34 attempts for 233 yards, throwing 1 touchdown without any interceptions. Smith left right at the end of the third quarter, replaced by Drew Lock. He re-entered on the final drive, so less concerns about his availability next week.
DK Metcalf was the primary target in the receiving game, making 5 receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets (23.7% Target share, 130 air yards).
Tyler Lockett contributed with 51 yards on 5 receptions from 7 targets (18.4% Target share). Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Charbonnet also contributed to the receiving efforts, with Smith-Njigba catching 3 passes for 40 yards (6 targets, 119 air yards) and Charbonnet adding 22 yards on 6 receptions. Caught all 6 of his targets.
Smith-Njigba was used more downfield than ever – 19.8 Adot – and one would assume they need to lean heavily on him up against the 49ers offense that seemingly cannot be stopped when healthy.
JSN also played more snaps and ran more routes than Lockett, as I think the Seahawks are monitoring the veteran’s workload. He has been on the injury report every week with a hamstring issue. As an older player, it is better to get out sooner rather than later as these injuries tend to not get better, especially on a short week.
The rookie is only $4,100 on DraftKings in Week 12.
The 49ers (Thanksgiving), Cowboys and 49ers again are on deck for Seattle over the next 3 weeks, followed by the Eagles and Titans.
Los Angeles Rams
Add TuTu Atwell, Add/Hold Royce Freeman
Royce Freeman led the Rams with 17 carries for 73 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt with his longest run being 15 yards. Led the backfield with a 63% snap share.
Puka Nacua added 7 yards on a single carry, while Darrell Henderson Jr. scored a touchdown, contributing only 1 yard on 6 carries. The 40.5 rushing yards prop under was never in doubt. Only played 36% of the snaps.
Still, the fact that Henderson scored despite Freeman out-touching him 6 to 2 in the red zone did not seem justified.
Kyren William can return as early as Week 12 versus the Cardinals. Therefore, you can safely drop Henderson. Sean McVay expects him [Williams] to be on track for Week 12. Freeman looks the next man up based on the recent usage trends. He’s a hold/add in case Williams does not return.
Nacua was the primary target in the receiving game, making 5 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets (24.1% Target share). 3 red-zone targets.
Cooper Kupp left the game in the first half and did not return.
Henderson mostly contributed in the passing game with 28 yards on 4 receptions from 7 targets (24.1% Target share). Demarcus Robinson and Austin Trammell each added to the receiving efforts, with Robinson catching 2 passes for 24 yards (2 targets) and Trammell adding 23 yards on 3 receptions (21% Target share, 6 targets).
Tyler Higbee and Tutu Atwell also contributed to the receiving game, each making a 17-yard catch on 3 targets. Kupp, usually a significant contributor, was limited to just 1 reception for 11 yards before leaving due to injury.
The lack of involvement for Atwell was bizarre, considering he has been heavily involved/productive when Kupp missed time to start the year. Still, he played 88% of the snaps and tied for the team lead in routes run. Add him off waivers in a GREAT matchup in Week 12.
He saw two deep targets from Matthew Stafford that drew two defensive PIs.
The Rams play Arizona, Browns, Baltimore and Washington in their next four games.
Minnesota Vikings
Add Ty Chandler, Jordan Addison, Sell Alexander Mattison
In Week 11, the Minnesota Vikings showcased an effective running game, with Alexander Mattison at the forefront against a suspect Broncos run defense. Mattison carried the ball 18 times, gaining 81 yards and averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 15 yards. He also lost a fumble.
Ty Chandler also made a significant impact, rushing for 73 yards on 10 carries, including a long run of 31 yards. He had a massive rush on a fake punt in the 4th quarter.
Snaps were 65% for Mattison and 31% for Chandler. First-half carries were 6 for Chandler and 10 for Mattison.
Chandler caught 4 passes for 37 yards, Mattison was targeted twice but ended with negative yardage on his one reception. Mattison ran the most routes, but Chandler drew more targets (4 vs. 2). Mattison also dominated the red-zone carries with 5 attempts to Chandler’s 1.
The team’s obsession with the plodding Mattison is beyond me. But I still want to sell after a prime-time game against one of the league’s worst run defenses. Detriot is a much better run defense and then the Vikings go on bye.
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs added 21 yards on 8 carries and scored a touchdown.
Dobbs also led the passing offense, completing 20 of 32 attempts for 221 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He was sacked twice for a loss of 11 yards, and his longest pass was 29 yards.
In the receiving department, T.J. Hockenson was a key target, making 4 receptions for 55 yards on 7 targets (23% Target share). Josh Oliver caught 4 passes for 47 yards and scored a touchdown on 4 targets (12.9% Target share). Jordan Addison contributed with 44 yards on 3 receptions from 6 targets (19.4% Target share). This rookie is just flat-out good. Maybe some will be gun-shy on him with Justin Jefferson returning soon, but I’d just buy the talent in that aspect. No guarantee either that JJ will come back with the team slated for a Week 13 bye week. Great WR matchup versus the Bears in Week 12.
Brandon Powell and K.J. Osborn also contributed to the receiving efforts.
Powell added 32 yards on 3 receptions, and Osborn made a single catch for 7 yards. Osborn led the team in routes run.
Minnesota takes on the Bears, Bye Week, Raiders, and Bengals over the next three matchups followed by the Lions/Packers.
It’s a great matchup through the air for the RBs, which makes Chandler an interesting FLEX option with his pass-game role and explosive skill set.
Denver Broncos
Sell Javonte Williams, Buy Jerry Jeudy, Hold Courtland Sutton, Add Greg Dulcich, Drop Marvin Mims
In Week 11, the Denver Broncos had a limited impact on the ground, with Javonte Williams being the primary rusher. Williams gained only 37 yards on 11 carries, averaging 3.4 yards per attempt, with his longest run being 15 yards. He played 49% of the snaps.
The Vikings run defense is no joke. And the schedule gets tougher for Williams.
Samaje Perine (36% snap share) and Jaleel McLaughlin (15% snap share) also had rushing attempts, but their contributions were minimal. 1 for 7 yards and 1 for 1 yard, respectively. Williams is the favored early-down rusher, but if the constant involvement of the other guys limits his upside in less favorable matchups.
The Broncos found more success through the air. Russell Wilson completed 27 of 35 passes for 259 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked twice for a loss of 10 yards.
Courtland Sutton was a key target in the passing game, making 4 receptions for 66 yards and scoring a touchdown on 5 targets (15.6% Target share). Will he ever stop scoring? Eventually. But his 8 TDs and unreal red-zone usage are impossible to argue with.
Perine showed his versatility, catching 7 passes for 60 yards on 7 targets (22% Target share). Jerry Jeudy also had a notable contribution with 58 yards on 5 receptions while tying for the team lead in targets (7, 22%). Jeudy also led the team in routes run but dropped a TD. Next’s week matchup is tough but after that, it’s strong for the Denver WRs. Jeudy is dirt cheap to acquire and could see a boost when Sutton inevitably sustains negative TD regression (he said cowering in fear).
Adam Trautman, Williams, and McLaughlin were also involved in the receiving game, with Trautman making 2 catches for 33 yards, and Williams adding 16 yards on 2 receptions. McLaughlin caught 5 passes for 14 yards on 5 targets. Wilson continues to pepper his RBs with targets.
Marvin Mims saw three targets, catching 2 for 12 yards. He ran a route on 68% of dropbacks. Also caught a nice short pass for a solid gain that was nullified due to a holding penalty. He’s the clear WR3 in the offense that has a game manager at QB. Not enough juice to squeeze here.
Denver plays Cleveland, Houston, Los Angeles Chargers and the Lions over the next month. Generally, a favorable schedule for the passing game for Wilson and his top pass-catchers aside from the Browns matchup.
Greg Dulcich could return from IR soon, so add him in TE premium formats. The Broncos have a good schedule for fantasy TEs for the rest of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Hold Rashee Rice, Buy Isiah Pacheco, Add Justin Watson
Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing with 19 carries for 89 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, with his longest run being 24 yards. Patrick Mahomes also contributed significantly with 6 carries for 38 yards (6.3 avg), his longest being a 14-yard dash. He also caught 1 pass on his lone target for 2 yards while tying Jerick McKinnon in routes run. It was an efficient night for Pacheco as a rusher, despite the tougher matchup.
As always, buy Pacheco. No. 1 SOS for RBs.
Next 6 Weeks: LV, GB, BUF, NE and LV (again).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire also had 2 carries for 20 yards, averaging 10 yards per carry. Kadarius Toney (2 carries) and Jerick McKinnon also contributed with 14 and 7 yards respectively. McKinnon also drew three targets.
Justin Watson was the top receiver, catching 5 passes for 53 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 11 targets (142 air yards, 28% Target share). Not ideal for KC’s offense that this guy is your WR1. Still, if you are going to see top targets from Mahomes and score TDs – even with some drops mixed in – you have a place in fantasy football lineups. Watson led all Chiefs WRs in routes run.
Travis Kelce contributed with 7 receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets (23% Target share).
Rashee Rice and Mecole Hardman had notable contributions as well, with Rice hauling in 4 passes for 42 yards (5 targets, 13% Target share) and Hardman catching 2 for 12 yards (2 targets). Rice ran a route on 52% of the dropbacks, slightly below what he ran before the bye week.
On another note, the Chiefs have the league’s worst second-half scoring offense. Woof. Scoreless in the second half over their last two games. Defenses are making adjustments. Although they had NUMEROUS opportunities to score in the second half against the Eagles. Kelce fumbled and Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped an EASY go-ahead TD on a deep pass.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift led with 12 carries for 76 yards (6.3 avg), 1 TD, long of 35 yards. Snap Count: 36 (64%). Swift also caught 3 receptions for 31 yards, with a long of 20 yards.
The other Eagles RBs were hardly used. Boston Scott: 2 attempts for 8 yards. Snap Count: 7 (12%). Kenneth Gainwell: 1 carry for 1 yard and 0ne catch for 4 yards. Snap Count: 17 (30%).
DeVonta Smith led the Eagles receivers with 6 receptions on 8 targets (38% Target share), 99 yards, with a long catch of 41 yards that landed the offense at the 1-yard line. Snap Count: 53 (95%). As I projected, Smith saw the biggest increase in usage with Dallas Goedert out of the lineup.
A.J. Brown was quiet, being held to just 1 reception for 8 yards. Snap Count: 53 (95%). Only 4 targets.
Julio Jones: 2 receptions, 5 yards. Snap Count: 32 (57%). 2 targets. Philadelphia played more 3WRs sets without Goedert, which increased the playing time for Jones.
Jack Stoll: 1 reception, 3 yards. Snap Count: 31 (55%). 2 targets. Stoll saw the vast majority of tight end snaps without Goedert.
Philly has Buffalo, SF and Dallas in their next three weeks. Shootouts as far as the eyes can see. Buy Eagles after so-so Monday Night Showing.
Week 11 Bye Week Teams
Atlanta Falcons
Buy/Hold Bijan Robinson, Hold/Buy Drake London
Bijan Robinson led the rushing attack with 22 carries for 95 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown. Robinson was involved in the passing game with an 11-yard reception (2 targets). Elite 75% snap share. But better yet, 4 red zone carries! The buy-low sentiment came through from weeks ago!
Tyler Allgeier contributed 31 yards on 9 carries, while also seeing four red-zone carries. But he also played a lower snap share of the season at just 27%. Cordarrelle Patterson out-snapped him (31%) for the first time all season.
Patterson and Desmond Ridder also added to the rushing totals, with Ridder scoring a touchdown. Came in for an injured Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke completed just 8 of 15 attempts for 55 yards and a touchdown, while Ridder completed 4 of 6 attempts for 39 yards.
Drake London was the primary target in the receiving corps, catching 3 of his 4 targets (22.2% Target share) for 36 yards. Kyle Pitts also made a significant contribution with 30 yards on 3 receptions from a team-high 5 targets (28% Target share).
Patterson and Allgeier were also active in the receiving game, with Patterson catching 2 passes for 7 yards and Allgeier adding 7 yards on his lone reception. Scotty Miller caught a touchdown pass.
After a bye week, it’s the Saints, Jets and Buccaneers. The playoff schedule remains JUICY with Carolina, Indianapolis and the Bears Weeks 15-17. The Atlanta DST is stash-worthy.
The buy-low window is probably closed on Robinson, so I’d try to go after London instead.
Still the clear alpha in the passing game. And better yet, Desmond Ridder is the starting QB moving forward. Heinicke targeted London once in Week 10. Ridder targeted London 5 times (including penalties and 2-point attempts) for a 63% Target share (8 total pass attempts) in his limited playing time in Week 10.
London is Ridder’s binky. Trade for the binky. No Marshon Lattimore this week for the Saints.
Indianapolis Colts
Buy Jonathan Taylor, Buy Michael Pittman Jr., Hold Josh Downs
Jonathan Taylor carried the ball 23 times for 69 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry, and scored the only rushing touchdown on one of his 4 red-zone rushing attempts in Week 10. His longest run was 10 yards. Zack Moss had a minor role in the rushing game with just one carry for 2 yards. Taylor was targeted once in the passing game and made one reception for 6 yards.
It was a full-on takeover by JT. 88% snap share. Taylor is a top-5 running back rest of the season. Buy him off the bye week.
The receiving corps was led by Michael Pittman Jr., who was targeted 12 times (46% Target share) and made 8 receptions for 84 yards. No. 3 in weighted opportunity in Week 10. Straight alpha. Excellent schedule for the rest of the season for WRs. Buy high while he is not top of mind off the bye week.
Josh Downs saw only 3 targets in Week 10, turning them into 2 receptions for 40 yards. Played limited snaps as he was dealing with a knee injury. Should get healthy after the bye week. No need to hold him through the bye week in shallower leagues, but hold him/add him in deeper formats if he got dropped.
Isaiah McKenzie was efficient with his opportunities, catching all 4 of his targets for 31 yards. Alec Pierce, Will Mallory, Kylen Granson, and Mo Alie-Cox were also involved in the passing game, though to a lesser extent. 1 catch for each guy versus the Patriots in Week 10.
Following their Week 11 bye week, the Colts will play the Buccaneers, Titans, Bengals and Steelers. The Colts have a top WR strength of schedule for the rest of the season.
New England Patriots
Hold/Buy Rhamondre Stevenson, Add Demario Douglas
Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 20 times for 88 yards – 3 inside the 20-yard line – averaging 4.4 yards per carry, while Ezekiel Elliott added 54 yards on 13 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt in Week 10. Elliott, apart from his rushing duties, also caught 2 passes on 2 targets for 34 yards with 4 red-zone carries. Stevenson was involved in the passing game as well, with 5 targets and 3 receptions (19% Target share). His receiving role is keeping him upright and there’s a chance it continues to be fruitful.
67% snap share for Stevenson versus 33% snap share for Elliott. It was also the first game that Mondre reached 20 carries all season. Buy after the bye week with the Giants smash spot coming up in Week 12. Overall, it’s a top-5 rest-of-season schedule for RBs.
In the passing game, Mac Jones completed 15 out of 20 attempts for 170 yards, with a back-breaking red zone INT. Got benched for Bailey Zappe in the final drive. Zappe was intercepted at the end of the game.
If the Patriots make a QB change to Zappe, that could be a boom for Stevenson’s fantasy value. Last year in two starts with Zappe at QB, Stevenson averaged 3.5 targets and over 20 fantasy points per game.
Wide receiver Demario Douglas was the most targeted player in Week 10, receiving 9 targets and catching 6 passes for 84 yards (52% air yards share). Douglas led with a 35% Target share. Note that a lot of his yardage (30 yards) came on a last-second catch at the end of the first half.
Add him if he got dropped during the bye week.
Tight end Mike Gesicki was targeted 3 times, making 2 receptions for 22 yards. Hunter Henry also had 5 targets, converting them into 3 receptions for 21 yards. Other contributors included Kayshon Boutte and JuJu Smith-Schuster, each with one reception. Smith-Schuster played the most snaps and ran the most routes among the WRs.
Goose egg for Jalen Reagor. 1 snap on offense. The under on his receiving yardage prop was a stone-cold lock. A reminder that when a player BOMBS after seeing volume, the chances of the volume continuing is no guarantee. Boutte was active for the first time since Week 1 and played ahead of Reagor in Germany.
Coming out of their bye week, it’s the Giants, Chargers, Steelers and Chiefs.
Caleb Williams bowl coming up soon…
New Orleans Saints
Sell Alvin Kamara, Sell Chris Olave, Hold Taysom Hill, Drop Michael Thomas, Add Saints DST, Add Rashid Shaheed
Alvin Kamara led the rushing attack with 9 carries for 42 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt with his longest run being 9 yards back in Week 10. Jamaal Williams (4 carries) and Taysom Hill (one carry) also contributed but with limited yardage. Kamara was heavily involved in the passing game with 7 receptions on 7 targets for 33 yards.
In the passing department, Jameis Winston completed 13 of 25 attempts for 122 yards, throwing 2 touchdown passes but also 2 interceptions. Derek Carr left the game with a concussion.
Chris Olave was a significant target in the receiving game, catching 6 of his 9 targets (23% Target share) for 94 yards, including a 26-yard touchdown reception (2 red-zone targets). 182 total air yards (45%). He had another big catch nullified due to an offensive offsides penalty.
All of his production came in the second half. He had zero first-half targets. Carr got hurt on his first throw to Olave. Sell high on Olave after his big game with Winston at QB. Because that is not going to be the case after the bye week, under the assumption Carr clears the concussion protocol.
A.T. Perry saw fewer targets but made a notable impact with 38 yards and a touchdown on 2 receptions. Came down with a jump ball in the end zone and played a TON with Michael Thomas out with an injury (3% snap share).
Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill were also active in the passing game, with Shaheed catching 5 passes for 24 yards (9 targets, 23%, 94 air yards) and Hill adding 17 yards on 2 receptions (4 targets). Michael Thomas left the game with a knee injury. Perry led all Saints WRs in snaps (84%).
I was all over the Shaheed over receiving yardage props back in Week 10, so to see him lay such a poor game with MT on the shelf, was difficult to watch. Second-worst receiving EPA in Week 10. Shaheed had to be checked for an injury in the fourth quarter. Monitor his status after the bye week. Still he needs to be added if he was dropped based on the MT injury.
The Falcons and Lions over the next 2 weeks. Would expect Carr to clear protocol with the extra week.
Then it’s Carolina, New York Giants, LA Rams and Tampa Bay to round out the fantasy playoffs. Stash/Add the Saints DST.
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