The Week 9 Sunday Night Football game has a heavyweight fight feel, with two superstar quarterbacks carrying their offenses. Both stud quarterbacks have elite No. 1 wide receivers and stellar ancillary weapons. The quarterbacks and top pass-catching options are suggested picks, but a few value-salary players are also intriguing sources of salary relief.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -2.5
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Bills Analysis: Josh Allen is the catalyst of Buffalo's offense and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey puts a lot on his plate. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Bills have passed on 59% of their 155 plays in a neutral game script since Week 5, and Cincinnati's opponents have passed on 58% of their 165 plays in a neutral game script since Week 4.
Allen is having an excellent season in Buffalo's pass-happy attack. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Allen is fifth in passing yards per game (270.6), fifth in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.01 ANY/A) and third in passing touchdowns (17). The dual-threat quarterback has rushed for a career-low 23.6 yards per game through eight games. However, he has five rushing touchdowns. Allen also ran seven times for 41 yards and a touchdown last week, tying his season high for rushes and reaching his second-highest yardage output this season.
Allen's favorite option in the passing game is Stefon Diggs. The club's No. 1 wideout averages 8.0 receptions per game and 93.5 receiving yards per game with six receiving touchdowns this season. In addition to having a high ceiling, Diggs is a model of consistency. Diggs had at least six receptions and over 65 receiving yards or a touchdown in every game this season.
Gabe Davis is Buffalo's No. 2 wideout and a big-play threat. He might not be only a vertical-usage player, though. The Bills have traditionally used him to stretch the field, evidenced by his 13.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in 2023, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). However, Davis had a season-low 6.9-yard aDOT in Week 8 and turned 12 targets into nine receptions, 87 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Diggs and Davis should have the best matchups among Buffalo's wide receivers since, according to The 33rd Team, Diggs has played wide 54.0% of the time, and Davis has 60.6%. The Bengals have allowed more DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (17.0 and 13.0) to perimeter wideouts since Week 5 than to slots (12.5 and 10.0). Interestingly, Davis was also used as a pseudo tight end semi-frequently in Week 6 and Week 8, with tight alignment percentages of 32.7% and 23.9%, respectively. Buffalo's rookie tight end was out in Week 6, and Dawson Knox was out in Week 8. Knox is on Injured Reserve (IR). Therefore, Davis could see more faux tight end usage this week.
Still, Dalton Kincaid is the club's top tight end and an ascending talent after his two most productive games in the last two games. Since Week 7, Kincaid was tied for second on the team in targets (15), second in receptions (13) and first in receiving yards (140). He also scored his first professional touchdown last week. Kincaid has a tasty matchup this week. The Bengals have coughed up 6.25 receptions per game, 70.5 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns to tight ends in their previous four contests.
Khalil Shakir has also popped up lately. After setting season highs for routes (20), targets (four), receptions (four) and receiving yards (35) in Week 7, Shakir ran 33 routes and had six targets, six receptions and 92 receiving yards in Week 8. The second-year wideout has a 50.9% slot rate this season, and he had a 62.2% slot rate in Week 8. Unfortunately, Shakir's slot usage means he has the most challenging matchup among the Bills' wide receivers. Nevertheless, Shakir's role is substantial relative to his bargain salary.
Deonte Harty is a gadget player for the Bills, rendering him unexciting at FD. Still, the salary relief he provides at DK is useful on a star-studded slate. According to PFF, Harty has seven targets and seven receptions behind the line of scrimmage, five and four short (zero to nine yards downfield), one and one medium (10 to 19 yards downfield) and two and one deep (20-plus yards downfield) this season. Despite Harty's gimmicky usage behind the line of scrimmage this year, he's previously demonstrated the ability to burn teams deep.
Bengals Analysis: Gamers should throw out Joe Burrow's underwhelming numbers early in the season. His calf injury clearly impacted him. Burrow has found his groove lately, averaging 261.7 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games and had his best effort of the season against the 49ers last week.
Additionally, Cincinnati's play calling in their only game after their bye in Week 7 was encouraging for Burrow's passing outlook. The Bengals passed on 57% of their 51 plays in a neutral game script against San Francisco last week. Burrow can stay hot against a defense that's allowed 256.0 passing yards per game, five touchdown passes and 21.25 rushing yards per game with zero interceptions since Week 5.
Ja'Marr Chase is the passing game's top dog. He averages 8.6 receptions per game and 93.7 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns this season. The third-year pro started slowly, falling short of 40 yards in his first two contests. He's averaged 10.0 receptions per game and 117.2 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns since Week 3.
Tee Higgins is having a down year. Yet, his lackluster production is understandable since he's dealt with cracked ribs. Higgins looked more like himself last week when he had five receptions for 69 receiving yards. The lousy start to his season has depressed his salary, making him an attractive bargain with a scoring upside beyond his salary.
Chase and Higgins are clearly the best options in Cincinnati's passing attack, and they have the best matchups among the wideouts this week, albeit with the possibility of Rasul Douglas debuting for the Bills and improving their secondary. Since Week 5, the Bills have allowed 17.0 DK and 13.0 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts versus 12.5 and 10.0 to slots.
Thus, Tyler Boyd's matchup is trickier than Chase's and Higgins'. Even though the matchup isn't ideal, Boyd is a mainstay on the field and a rock-solid player. According to Sumer Sports, the Bengals have the fourth-highest rate (80.2%) for using 11 personnel (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) this season. As a result, Boyd ran 35 routes last week, one less than Chase and four more than Higgins. No one else ran 30-plus routes in Week 8 for the Bengals.
Boyd's ceiling isn't in the same tier as Chase's or Higgins'. Still, Boyd has reached paydirt in the previous two games, had at least three receptions in his past six, catching at least four passes in five of those games and reached at least 38 receiving yards five times this season.
The Irv Smith experiment has gone poorly for the Bengals. They might be ready to pull the plug on him as their starting tight end after signing Tanner Hudson from the practice squad earlier this week. Head coach Zac Taylor and Burrow had flattering words about Hudson when they announced adding him to the active roster.
In two games this year, Hudson averaged 2.0 receptions per game and 24.0 receiving yards per game. The matchup is stellar for him and Cincinnati's tight ends this week. The Bills have allowed 5.0 receptions per game, 49.25 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends since Week 5. If Hudson ices Smith out of the offense and claims the top spot on the depth chart this week, his value can vastly exceed his salary on DK.
Final Thoughts: Joe Mixon wasn't included as a suggested pick. He's not a terrible selection. Yet, I expect him to be overused relative to his talent level because of his outstanding showing against the Bills in the snowy playoff game last season. As a result, I prefer to fade him, especially in GPPs.
Allen and Burrow are narrowly above Diggs and Chase at the upper-tier Captain/MVP picks. Diggs and Chase are in the second tier. Higgins, Kincaid and Davis are viable Captain choices at DK, too.
Balanced lineups are my favorite choice. However, lineups leaning toward either team are also excellent lineup constructions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
