Welcome in, fellow DFS degenerates. Week 11 is upon us, and with it, so is a new 11-game main slate.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 11 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Howell hasn’t always been pretty to behold but has been slinging the ball all over the yard. The first-year starter is currently third overall in fantasy points, first overall in passing yards, and tied for third in passing touchdowns. His 20.6 DK points per game is sixth overall on this slate, while his salary is ninth among the position. The value is already baked into the cost. There is a wart that should be mentioned, he is also the unquestioned sacks-taken (47) leader among all quarterbacks.
Welcome in, fellow DFS degenerates. Week 11 is upon us, and with it, so is a new 11-game main slate.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 11 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Howell hasn’t always been pretty to behold but has been slinging the ball all over the yard. The first-year starter is currently third overall in fantasy points, first overall in passing yards, and tied for third in passing touchdowns. His 20.6 DK points per game is sixth overall on this slate, while his salary is ninth among the position. The value is already baked into the cost. There is a wart that should be mentioned, he is also the unquestioned sacks-taken (47) leader among all quarterbacks.
Howell and the Commanders are taking on the New York Giants defense that is middle of the road against quarterbacks in fantasy points allowed. They also allow the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Howell is averaging 39.7 passing attempts per game and has a defense that has become a little more generous since dealing two of their key defensive pieces. While far from insinuating that the Giants will put up significant points, it is still an offense with some weapons.
Howell is priced in a good spot for GPP contests and offers the ability to spend up at some key positional players. He has middling QB1 appeal this week.
Despite Lawrence’s struggles this season, he only has two games with less than 15 FD points, one of which came last week against a formidable 49ers defense. Lawrence’s overall numbers are not bad, it is primarily the lack of touchdowns. He is 17th in passing yards (2,120) but only has nine passing touchdowns and zero on the ground. Last season, he finished with 25 passing touchdowns and five rushing scores. While a return to the mean is statistically improbable, improvement in that direction is still well within the range of outcomes.
The Titans are a favorable matchup for quarterbacks and have allowed four passing touchdowns over the last three weeks and five quarterbacks to surpass 20 fantasy points.
Lawrence is far from a smash play, which is a positive as far as roster percentage goes. He is best used in GPP contests, allowing additional salary to be allocated to higher ceiling skill position players. Consider stacking him with a cost-effective option like Christian Kirk ($6900) or Travis Etienne ($8300) to maximize any potential passing scores he could have. He has a QB2 floor with low-end QB1 upside in a decent matchup.
Running Backs
Over the last five weeks, Ford has accrued double-digit carries and double-digit fantasy points. Over that span, he is averaging 15.2 fantasy points despite only notching one rushing touchdown.
The Steelers defense is far more vicious against quarterbacks, a point that will be expanded upon momentarily. They’re allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the position, including two touchdowns over their last four games.
Deshaun Watson is done for the season after requiring shoulder surgery. The Browns are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson in an effort to see what they have in the rookie. The probability of the Browns dialing up the run game against a division rival that is more susceptible in that facet of their defense is relatively high. Expect Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Thompson-Robinson to have plenty of work on the ground in this matchup, with Ford leading the charge.
Between salary and expected workload, Ford is intriguing for GPP contests, especially for those who set multiple lineups.
Fun fact, Robinson is the RB4 in .5 PPR scoring this season. He has a combined eight touchdowns, and his 13.21 FD points per game is higher than Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. Robinson has carved out a consistent volume role and only has three games in which he has less than double-digit carries. He has also been more involved in the passing game than initially expected, including a gaudy 119 receiving yards in week ten.
The Giants are struggling on both sides of the ball. They are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. In 11 weeks of play, the Giants have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and nine running backs to exceed double-digit points.
Antonio Gibson is listed as doubtful while battling a toe injury, which could allow a few more opportunities for Robinson. The role is good, the matchup is great, and the salary is manageable. Robinson is a value play in both cash and GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Hopefully, the Packers are seeing what the fantasy managers who consume football the way we do are seeing in Jayden Reed. The talented rookie is coming on stronger over the last few games. He has cleared 80 receiving yards twice in the last three weeks and scored once. Through his first nine games, he has finished as a WR3 or better in five of them, including a WR11 finish last week.
The Chargers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They have allowed nine different receivers to score touchdowns this season, including names like River Cracraft, Nick Westbrook-Ikine, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
The Packers offense has struggled with consistent play, adding some risk to trusting Reed in lineups. However, between the excellent matchup and the low salary, it is worth working him into a few GPP lineups.
Smith-Njigba has yet to have that big breakout type of game this season. While some other rookies are well on their way to flourishing, he is still settling into an offense that likes to run and has two solid wide receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett playing ahead of him. However, over the last five games, he is averaging 5.6 targets for 52.6 receiving yards, and he has two touchdowns. JSN is steadily working himself into a consistent role in the offense.
The Rams are allowing the 12th-fewest points to wide receivers, so it is not the sexiest of matchups available, but far from being a shutdown opponent. JSN will not be facing the premiere coverage working primarily from the slot.
Tyler Lockett has been riding a questionable tag all week, which is also worth monitoring. Without having a truly big game under his belt, JSN will be less rostered for this slate, making him an ideal GPP shot to take.
Tight Ends
From week six on, Trey McBride is the TE5 in PPR scoring formats. During that span, he has cleared 60 or more receiving yards three times and scored once. He is averaging 14.1 DK points over that stretch of games. In his first game with Kyler Murray, he set a career-high 131 receiving yards. The arrow is pointing up for the rookie tight end and he draws another favorable matchup this week.
The Texans allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. They have allowed 60 or more receiving yards four times this season and four touchdowns to the position. This matchup is tied with the Bears/Lions game for the highest over/under on the slate. There could be some back-and-forth scoring and McBride is going to remain involved. He is an excellent value in both cash and GPP contests.
Kmet emerged as backup quarterback Tyson Bagent‘s favorite target through his three starts. During that stretch, Kmet averaged seven receptions, 59.7 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns. With Justin Fields under center, Kmet was still putting up respectable numbers, averaging 40 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. It is worth mentioning that Kmet has two games in which he has had two touchdowns this season-one with Justin Fields and the other with Tyson Bagent. Kmet leads all Bears pass catchers in red zone targets with 11 on the season.
The Lions have a very capable defense but struggle to cover tight ends. They’re allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. Between occupying the soft spot in the Lions’ secondary and Kmet’s prominent role in the red zone, he is a value play in a game tied for the highest over/under on the slate. He feels better utilized in GPP contests for this slate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
