That was a much-needed break, and my batteries are recharged for the second half. It’s always funny that we call it a second half because most teams have played 100 games. That means we only have two months of baseball, with the trade deadline less than two weeks away. That’ll make these next 60 days fascinating, and I can’t wait to discuss it from a DFS perspective.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this Saturday slate. Here are our top MLB DFS picks and player prop bet predictions for Saturday’s slate of baseball games.
That was a much-needed break, and my batteries are recharged for the second half. It’s always funny that we call it a second half because most teams have played 100 games. That means we only have two months of baseball, with the trade deadline less than two weeks away. That’ll make these next 60 days fascinating, and I can’t wait to discuss it from a DFS perspective.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this Saturday slate. Here are our top MLB DFS picks and player prop bet predictions for Saturday’s slate of baseball games.
Saturday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs. SD
It’s shocking to see how cheap Williams is. The sophomore had a 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in a breakout rookie campaign but missed the opening months due to an elbow issue. He’s been sensational since returning, allowing just one run in his last two starts. We love that since he has a home start against a San Diego team missing Fernando Tatis Jr. especially since we’re looking at a 7.5-run total in what could be a pitcher’s duel.
Brady Singer (KC) vs. CWS
Singer has quietly been sensational this season, sporting a 3.20 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He’s also allowed one run or fewer in 12 of his 19 starts and could be in line for another one of those against Chicago. The White Sox rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA, with Singer posting a 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in their two matchups this year.
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs. DET
Kikuchi is a volatile pitcher but always seems to perform well against poor competition. That’s what we have in Detroit, with the Motor City Kitties ranked 20th in K rate, 27th in OBP, and 25th in wOBA. We love that since Kikuchi had a 2.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through his first 10 starts while totaling an 11.8 K/9 rate across his last eight outings. He should be able to balance those two in this beautiful matchup, especially since Kikuchi has much better splits at home.
Luis Severino (NYM) at MIA
Severino is far from exciting, but this is one of the safest bets for a quality start. The Mets pitcher has a 3.78 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, allowing just one run across six innings against Miami last month. That’s no surprise when looking at the Marlins’ statistics, who rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA.
MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks
Hendricks had his best start of the season in his most recent outing, but that makes his season-long numbers even more baffling. The veteran has allowed at least seven runs in four starts, generating a 6.78 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. That’s scary since Arizona has nearly 30 runs over their last four games.
San Francisco Giants (vs. Kyle Freeland)
San Fran has the highest-projected team total on this slate, and it’s easy to understand why. Hitting in Coors Field always makes the opposing team a sexy stack because the Rockies rank last in ERA and WHIP. Freeland hasn’t helped those numbers, amassing a 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs
- It’s hard to believe how absurd Witt has been since his call-up. The shortstop has over 60 homers and 100 steals over the last three years, averaging nearly 11 DraftKings points per game. He’s been even better recently, providing a .471 AVG, .863 SLG, and 1.345 OPS across his last 13 outings. That’s concerning for Jonathan Cannon‘s 4.41 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
- Turner goes on these homer binges where he looks like one of the best power bats in baseball. The shortstop has nine homers over his last 13 games, generating a .459 OBP, .895 SLG, and 1.354 OPS across his last 14 outings!
- Using Arizona is one of the most profitable decisions on this slate, and Marte would have to be the first piece of your stack. The All-Star has an OPS above .900 since the start of last season, providing a .475 OBP and 1.072 OPS over his last 18 games.
- The Giants are the best stack of the day, and Chapman is their most reliable hitter. The third baseman has an OPS above .900 over his last 22 outings. That’s on par with his sensational splits, sporting a .383 OBP and .936 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. We didn’t even mention that he faces one of the worst pitchers in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball!
MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts
- Carroll is having a nightmarish season, but the 2023 MVP candidate is starting to get hot. He’s got an OPS above .800 over the last three weeks, stealing a base in almost every other game. That’s the resume that made him a stud last season, and we have to assume the positive regression is right around the corner against a gas can like Hendricks.
- O’Neill has developed into one of the best sluggers in baseball. He’s up to 16 homers in 69 games but has some of the best splits in the game. In fact, O’Neill has a .438 OBP and 1.053 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That’s rough for a rookie making his third career start, allowing seven runs across 10 innings in an ugly start to his career.
- Burleson has been hitting second for St. Louis, and he might be their best hitter this season. He’s just shy of a .300 average for the year, generating a .303 AVG, .541 SLG, and .875 OPS across his last 55 outings. He’s also got a .362 OBP, .571 SLG, and .933 OPS against righties, which is incredible since Bryce Elder has a 5.71 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
- Refsnyder should always be one of the first players in your build when Boston faces a lefty. We already talked about how they’re opposing a lefty with a 6.30 ERA, but Refsnyder has been remarkable with the platoon advantage in his favor. The outfielder has a .442 OBP and .942 OPS against lefties while batting third or fourth in these circumstances!
Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Brady Singer: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher
Singer has been superb outside of a few starts, and we expect him to recapture that form against the worst lineup in the league.
Yusei Kikuchi: 16.5 Recorded Outs – Higher
Kikuchi has surpassed this total in two of his last three starts and has the best matchup in that stretch.
Pete Alonso: 0.5 Total Bases – Higher
Alonso has a hit in four of his last six outings and faces a pitcher with a 5.47 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
