While we did have a good showing in Week 1, last week was not my best. That’ll happen when you recommend fringe players. It’s hard to believe how many injuries we have in the NFL right now. I’ve never seen so many big-name injuries in the opening two weeks. It’ll surely be a factor in some of these picks.
The premise behind this article is simple: Identify fantasy football smash plays on the fringe of your starting lineup. We rarely recommend a top-10 player at any position, but we want to help you fill those critical Flex spots when making fantasy start sit decisions.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s smash starts.
While we did have a good showing in Week 1, last week was not my best. That’ll happen when you recommend fringe players. It’s hard to believe how many injuries we have in the NFL right now. I’ve never seen so many big-name injuries in the opening two weeks. It’ll surely be a factor in some of these picks.
The premise behind this article is simple: Identify fantasy football smash plays on the fringe of your starting lineup. We rarely recommend a top-10 player at any position, but we want to help you fill those critical Flex spots when making fantasy start sit decisions.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s smash starts.
It’s funny that Cleveland gave up on this guy and gave Deshaun Watson $230 million because Baker Mayfield is undoubtedly the better player. The former Heisman winner is recapturing the form that made him a top pick by Cleveland, scoring 20 and 29 fantasy points in the first two games. That makes him one of the highest-scoring players in fantasy, but it’s less surprising since he scored at least 20 fantasy points in six of the final seven games last season. The production is no surprise with weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, making him an easy option against Denver’s subpar defense. In his last matchup with the Broncos, Mayfield completed 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns.
Tony Pollard was falling in fantasy drafts, and it isn’t easy to understand why. He was brought in to be the starting running back replacement for Derrick Henry. He has scored 15 and 18 fantasy points in his first two games. Most importantly, he’s had at least 16 carries and four targets in both outings, playing in 65% of the team’s snaps. That was the most significant question mark coming into the year, but Pollard is a must-start player if he gets 20 touches per game. That’s great against a Green Bay defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing rushers.
We’re going to use opposing running backs against the Panthers all season. They surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing rushers last year and have surrendered the second-most rushing yards so far this season. It equates to nearly 200 rushing yards a game and could lead to Zamir White’s first upside outing of the season. We’re encouraged by the role of White, playing in 63% of the snaps in Week 2. We saw White score at least 15 fantasy points in the final four games of last season in a similar role, and this could be the start of a breakout since Las Vegas is a 5.5-point home favorite against the worst rush defense in the NFL.
This is another game script we love. Let’s start there because the Bengals enter this favorable home matchup as a 7.5-point favorite. That’s automatically an amazing variable for a running back, especially since he faces a 29th-ranked Washington defense. The most crucial factor is that Zack Moss is establishing himself as the workhorse with Joe Mixon out of town, playing in 80% of the snaps last week. Moss averaged 16 fantasy points per game when he filled in for Jonathan Taylor last season. We expect something similar in Cincy. We also expect a handful of goal-line opportunities for the Bengals as a massive home favorite. Moss isn’t coming off the field for those either.
This San Francisco roster gets more shorthanded every time they step onto the field, losing Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Samuel’s absence is what’s most impactful for Brandon Aiyuk because he should be the go-to pass-catcher in this offense now. In the last six games Samuel missed, Aiyuk is averaging 16 fantasy points per game. Most importantly, he’s flirting with a 30% team target share, seeing 45% of the team’s air yards. That should be easy to reach with Samuel and McCaffrey both out, especially against a team like the Rams. They rank 31st in total defense, allowing Marvin Harrison Jr. to go nuts last weekend.
It’s challenging to get excited about Chris Olave when looking at the stat sheet, but he will get better for one of the best offenses in football. The Saints lead the league in nearly every offensive metric. Olave is the one guy who has yet to get going. That’s a fluke because he averaged 14 fantasy points per game as one of the best receivers in the NFL last season. The main issue is that Derek Carr has only attempted 39 passes through two games, but that’s due to the lopsided game scripts. That shouldn’t be an issue in what’s expected to be a competitive game, especially since Philly allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL last season and is fifth in that statistic this year.
Not much data backs up this play, but Demarcus Robinson should be valuable due to volume. The Rams are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL and they could throw 40-50 times here as a massive underdog against the 49ers. That’s problematic for the Rams because they’ve lost Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to severe injuries. That means Robinson is now the No. 1 WR for the Rams, playing in 92% of the snaps so far this season. If he plays every snap, Robinson should be locked into double-digit targets as one of the only pass-catchers left on this roster. In the four games Robinson played at least 50 snaps last season, he scored at least 14 fantasy points in all of those.
Most fantasy managers have quickly realized this, but Brock Bowers looks like one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Despite going outside the top 10 in most fantasy drafts, Bowers must be started in every lineup going forward. The first-round pick has 15 catches for 156 yards through two games. Tight ends are usually slow to get going in their careers, but Bowers is proving to be a force. That sort of production is hard to overlook with how much of a dumpster fire the tight end position has been. It’s even scarier since Bowers isn’t even fully healthy after dealing with a foot injury during training camp. The matchup with Carolina is sensational, too, with the Panthers surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Bowers makes tight end fantasy start sit decisions easy.
D/ST
Las Vegas Raiders D/ST vs. CAR
Let’s keep exploiting the Panthers. This team was last in points scored and total yardage last season, benching Bryce Young after just two games. Sticking in Andy Dalton won’t improve things because Young was never the problem to begin with. We’d use any D/ST against a team that’ll struggle to reach four wins and Las Vegas has been an underrated one since last season. They were top-10 in fantasy points last year and enter this matchup as a 5.5-point favorite in a game with a 41-point total. That means the Panthers are only projected to score 18 points. That’s still too high.
I've been writing for 10 years and have been playing fantasy for nearly 20 years. I love NFL, MLB, NBA and AFL. I cover mainly DFS for FantasyPros, and don't have any favorite teams!
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