With most drafts now in the books and the Week 1 kickoff just a few days away, fantasy owners have now entered the stage of roster infatuation, comparing their newly minted squads to the most recent average draft position (ADP) or the numerous “don’t leave your draft without these five players” videos on Tik Tok.

Some managers are left wondering if Yahoo’s D+ ranking for their team is just an algorithm gone wrong and not loving their selection of Derrick Henry a round before ADP.

Some are considering making a trade for a running back after their Zero RB strategy left them with a less-than-attractive RB corps.

And some are contemplating adding Dalvin Cook to their roster – after all, he was once good and there are no other great options for the Cowboys.

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I doubt many fantasy owners are paying much attention to their kickers. With minimal effort devoted to ranking kickers in the industry and their status as an afterthought in drafts, most fantasy managers will likely stick with their initial selection, often holding onto them for far too long during the season.

Even though a high-scoring kicker’s performance can often be the difference between a win and a loss, fantasy managers don’t put much thought into who to start each week, often sticking with underperforming kickers simply because they play on a high-scoring offense.

I view kickers differently than most writers. After losing more than my fair share of games to a monster kicker performance, I decided to come up with a formula to predict kicker success and identify kickers who are incorrectly ranked by the fantasy community.

If you are looking for an edge over your opponents and are not content with drafting and locking in just one kicker for the long run, this weekly article will hopefully give you some insight on maximizing your return on an otherwise forgotten position and help with fantasy start sit decisions.

Week 1 Kicker Rankings

*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency, giving Justin Tucker an RZ EFF score of 2. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of an opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker fantasy football rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) top 10 who could be excellent in Week 1.

Cairo Santos (K – CHI) vs. Tennessee: 16% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

Cairo Santos finished last season as the No. 9 kicker despite having made the second-most field goals on the season with 35. He did not have an adequate number of extra points compared to the top five scoring kickers last season, limiting Santos to a ninth-place finish. With the addition of Caleb Williams and the other offensive additions for Chicago, I anticipate the Bears will not finish as the 20th-scoring offense this season. In addition, rookie quarterbacks often struggle in the red zone, at least early on in their career, leading to more field goal opportunities for their kicker. Santos is my breakout kicker of the year and a strong play this week at home against the Titans.

Greg Zuerlein (K – NYJ) @ San Francisco: 23% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

I typically do not like recommending kickers on Aaron Rodgers-led teams because the four-time NFL MVP has been historically good in the red zone. It’s why Mason Crosby, despite playing on a perennial top-10 offense, was always a disappointing fantasy kicker.

In the case of Greg Zuerlein, I like him this week on the road against the 49ers. I think this is going to be a low-scoring game and a dud on Monday Night Football, with both offenses struggling to score points against two of the better defenses.

If you are looking for a kicker to play indoors, Matt Gay at home against the Texans is also an interesting option, as he could outperform his ECR ranking.

Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

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Cairo Santos (K – CHI) vs. Tennessee: 16% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

In my seven years of compiling K Score data, I noticed early on a trend that jumped off the page. Young quarterbacks who took the league by storm often struggled in the red zone when windows tightened and defenses stiffened up. It helped me identify Kai’imi Fairbairn in Houston back when Deshaun Watson was a fantasy force. It also proved true with Zane Gonzales in Kyler Murray‘s rookie season, and C.J. Stroud, despite his Rookie of the Year season last year, produced the No. 3 kicker on a points-per-game basis.

If you are looking for a kicker who could be this year’s breakout, Cairo Santos and the Bears fit the mold and should be rostered in far more leagues.

Other Kickers to Consider

• Matt Gay (K – IND) vs. Houston: 25% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
• Cameron Dicker (K – LAC) vs. Las Vegas: 46% Roster Percentage on Yahoo