In the blink of an eye, it’s Week 3 in the NFL. With injuries running rampant across the league, fantasy managers are looking to replace unavailable players with formidable spot starters. Efficient offenses are the best place to look in this scenario.
Below is the Week 3 preview of NFL offensive pace and efficiency, including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 3
*For more details on EPA, click here. The table below is sorted by EPA/play.
Offenses Trending Up
New Orleans Saints
After beating the Panthers in Week 1, the Saints’ legitimacy was questionable considering their opponent. After doing the same to the Cowboys in Week 2, OC Klint Kubiak and the Saints have put the NFL on notice.
The Saints lead the NFL in points per game (45.5), EPA/play (0.31) and EPA/pass (0.49). They are second in EPA/run (0.27). This can be attributed to the protection of Derek Carr, as he has seen a league-low 11 QB pressures and been sacked only twice. The aerial attack in New Orleans is also very efficient; Carr is tied for the NFL lead with five touchdown throws, but the Saints are 32nd in passing plays run (42).
Despite the efficiency through the air, New Orleans is leaning on the run, with 64.4% of their plays coming on the ground. New Orleans has managed an NFL-leading 16.4 EPA on rushing plays, with Alvin Kamara‘s managers being the main beneficiaries. He has found the end zone four times in two weeks.
Chris Olave managers do not need to panic. While most of the WR production has come from Rashid Shaheed, Olave is pacing with him in targets. Carr is looking his way, and the Saints host the Eagles in Week 3, a defense allowing the fifth-most passing yardage per game thus far. Shaheed is a must-add from the waiver wire if available.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals improved significantly in overall efficiency after lighting up the Rams 41-10 last week. They moved from 15th overall in EPA/play to third.
Kyler Murray and this offense are finding ways to move the sticks. Arizona is 14-for-24 on third down for a conversion rate of 58.3%, the best in the NFL. More opportunity equates to more fantasy production. The Cardinals are positive across all EPA categories through two games and are second in the NFL in points per game. Kyler Murray is currently the fantasy QB3 with a completion percentage of 73.1%.
Outside of the spike performance from Marvin Harrison Jr.in Week 2, the receiving production has been balanced for the Cardinals. Trey McBride leads the team with 15 targets followed by Harrison Jr. and Greg Dortch with 11 and 10 targets, respectively. Harrison Jr. is likely to emerge as the alpha of this group, but McBride is carrying a catch rate of 73.3% and showing promise as a productive fantasy TE. Dortch is a slot specialist and will not be targeted as deep down the field as his teammates, but slot WRs on efficient offenses tend to earn significant roles. He is rostered in just 6.8% of ESPN leagues.
James Conner continues to carry the load for this Arizona backfield. He is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt and scored a pair of touchdowns. While he is the only Cardinals RB worth a fantasy roster spot, he is a surefire starter each week, as the Cardinals are fifth overall in total EPA on rushing plays (6.4).
Green Bay Packers
With Jordan Love out in Week 2, the Packers remained efficient with a new game plan. This consistency and versatility are signs of offensive health, especially if their franchise QB is available. Love was seen at practice on Wednesday.
While Green Bay is 13th in points per game, they are fifth in yards per game, showing their ability to out-gain opponents. The Packers have the sixth-best third-down conversion percentage at 46.4% and the extended drives have propelled them to 797 total yards through two weeks. They are elite in EPA/play and EPA/pass. Their protection has also been strong. Green Bay has allowed only two sacks on a QB pressure rate of 25.5%, which is the sixth-best in the NFL.
This offense needs to improve with run game efficiency and red zone conversions, both of which are manageable given this coaching staff and personnel. Green Bay’s EPA/rush of -0.04 is slightly skewed due to the 53 rushing attempts they had as a team last week in contrast to 14 throwing attempts from Malik Willis. The return of Jordan Love will take pressure off Josh Jacobs and give the Packers much better looks at the end zone throwing inside their opponents’ 20-yard line.
Jacobs will continue to anchor this backfield; his 235 rushing yards rank third in the NFL, and it is only a matter of time before he finds the end zone. Fantasy managers should consider him a staple in their lineup weekly. Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have received nine, eight and seven targets, respectively. This receiving corps will yield fantasy production in 2024 and Reed appears to be the early WR1 with 174 receiving yards on 24.5 yards per reception.
Offenses Trending Down
Los Angeles Rams
Week 2 was a mess for the Rams. They lost to a divisional opponent and Cooper Kupp was injured, making both of their top pass-catchers unavailable for the foreseeable future. The Rams retreated noticeably in EPA/play, EPA/pass and EPA/run last week. They are now averaging only 15 points per game and Matthew Stafford has been sacked seven times, tied for the third-most in the NFL. The Rams rank 14th in time to throw, so the sacks are coming by way of opponents’ coverage – a big problem with their top WRs going down.
Los Angeles’s offense will be limited until its WRs can consistently get open and move the chains. They are now seven-for-23 on third down and have converted only three of eight red zone trips for touchdowns. They will lean on Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson to right the ship in a Week 3 matchup with the 49ers.
Kyren Williams is due for a larger workload with the injuries in the WR room. He may be the only secure starter in fantasy lineups until Stafford builds rapport with one of his other options on the outside.
Tennessee Titans
There is not much for the Titans’ offense to hang their hat on through two games. They remain in the bottom-five across the NFL in EPA/play and have not protected Will Levis or taken care of the football.
Tennessee has been painfully inefficient through the air with an EPA/pass of -0.22. They lead the NFL in QB pressures allowed with 39, which has yielded seven sacks and three interceptions from Levis. With Levis seeing pressure on 53.4% of his dropbacks, the Titans must get the protection under control, or this passing attack will continue the mediocre production. Calvin Ridley has been the sole bright spot for fantasy managers after a 40-yard touchdown reception and a rushing touchdown last week against the Jets.
The Titans have been more effective on the ground, with Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears both averaging over four yards per carry. Based on what we’ve seen, these two are the most viable fantasy assets. The Titans are fourth in the NFL in rushes over 10 yards (10).
Chicago Bears
After plenty of preseason hype, the Bears’ offense has face-planted out of the gate. Chicago is gaining 176.5 total yards per game, just a half-yard ahead of the Panthers for the NFL’s worst.
The headwinds blowing through Chicago are QB protection and third-down efficiency. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has been sacked nine times and seen pressure on 35-of-80 total dropbacks. Any rookie QB needs time to adjust to the NFL, but consistent pressure will prolong the process. Williams has thrown two interceptions on a 56.1% completion percentage, and the Bears have an EPA/pass of -0.52. Additionally, Chicago is only eight-for-30 on third downs this season, with two trips to the red zone. The Bears will not have a chance to score for themselves or fantasy managers all year at this rate.
DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze‘s managers must be patient with their production until this offensive line and Williams get on the same page. Spot starts with bench players must be considered if these Bears’ WRs are in starting fantasy lineups.
Week 3 Matchups to Watch
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints
The red-hot New Orleans offense will square off with an Eagles defense that is in the top-five in both passing yardage allowed per game and throwing touchdowns allowed. This will make for a big day for Olave, Shaheed and Kamara catching the ball.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
After an electric game-winning drive Monday night, the Falcons will host the Chiefs on Sunday night in Week 3. Atlanta will have an advantage throwing against this Kansas City defense. Look out for solid performances from Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts.
2024 Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-2)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | QB Pressure % | Sacks | Turnovers |
| New Orleans Saints | 45.5 | 405.5 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 88.9% | 11.81 | 25.6% | 2 | 2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 32.5 | 299.5 | 0.18 | -0.16 | 0 | 75.0% | 9.57 | 24.0% | 2 | 1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 34.5 | 379.5 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.1 | 62.5% | 8.49 | 32.8% | 5 | 2 |
| Washington Commanders | 20.5 | 362 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 33.3% | 6.18 | 34.7% | 7 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28.5 | 304 | 0.08 | -0.13 | -0.14 | 57.1% | 8.75 | 30.6% | 6 | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 26.5 | 319.5 | 0.04 | -0.07 | 0.06 | 40.0% | 6.02 | 21.3% | 4 | 4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 22.5 | 398.5 | 0.03 | 0.14 | -0.04 | 28.6% | 7.61 | 25.5% | 2 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 27.5 | 387.5 | 0.03 | 0.1 | -0.03 | 45.5% | 5.52 | 26.3% | 3 | 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 21 | 413 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 27.3% | 4.76 | 32.6% | 2 | 3 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 24.5 | 400 | 0.01 | 0.25 | -0.05 | 25.0% | 6.66 | 32.5% | 9 | 2 |
| Houston Texans | 24 | 363.5 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 80.0% | 6.65 | 33.8% | 7 | 1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 25.5 | 357.5 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 60.0% | 8.15 | 34.5% | 5 | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 21.5 | 417.5 | -0.02 | 0.49 | 0.06 | 42.9% | 6.33 | 25.3% | 3 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 18 | 300 | -0.03 | -0.16 | 0.05 | 37.5% | 4.82 | 44.3% | 4 | 0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 24.5 | 331 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.13 | 44.4% | 6.28 | 31.6% | 5 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 24 | 332.5 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.03 | 50.0% | 5.94 | 39.2% | 2 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 18.5 | 320.5 | -0.07 | -0.07 | 0.22 | 60.0% | 4.95 | 32.8% | 3 | 4 |
| New York Jets | 21.5 | 265.5 | -0.09 | -0.29 | -0.14 | 75.0% | 6.4 | 25.0% | 3 | 2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 16 | 305.5 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.15 | 40.0% | 5.86 | 35.6% | 3 | 3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 17.5 | 272 | -0.13 | -0.21 | -0.05 | 50.0% | 6.2 | 21.1% | 6 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 15 | 316 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.12 | 37.5% | 5.67 | 31.3% | 7 | 2 |
| Cleveland Browns | 17.5 | 263.6 | -0.16 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 100.0% | 2.75 | 40.4% | 8 | 2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 295 | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.16 | 42.9% | 6.12 | 37.7% | 7 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 15.5 | 260.5 | -0.17 | -0.52 | -0.24 | 25.0% | 5.6 | 41.1% | 4 | 0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 15 | 375.5 | -0.19 | 0.06 | -0.15 | 33.3% | 5.38 | 22.9% | 5 | 3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 26 | 309 | -0.19 | -0.12 | -0.03 | 25.0% | 4.98 | 27.2% | 6 | 2 |
| New York Giants | 12 | 272 | -0.19 | -0.28 | -0.15 | 50.0% | 3.83 | 32.9% | 6 | 3 |
| Tennessee Titans | 17 | 272 | -0.28 | -0.22 | 0.01 | 33.3% | 2.67 | 53.4% | 7 | 5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 18 | 278 | -0.29 | -0.18 | -0.63 | 50.0% | 5.1 | 32.5% | 9 | 4 |
| Chicago Bears | 18.5 | 176.5 | -0.35 | -0.52 | -0.05 | 50.0% | 1.44 | 43.2% | 9 | 3 |
| Denver Broncos | 13 | 263 | -0.36 | -0.48 | -0.15 | 14.3% | 2.26 | 36.4% | 4 | 5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 | 176 | -0.53 | -0.7 | -0.25 | 50.0% | 1.1 | 30.9% | 6 | 4 |
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