In most leagues, only a few weeks are left in the fantasy football regular season. Teams have already clinched playoff berths, and others are on the doorstep of doing so. Unless your league has prizes for the regular-season finish, total points in the regular season, or you’re fighting tooth and nail for a bye in the first round of the playoffs, it’s more important to look ahead at the schedules for the fantasy playoffs than maximizing the chance to win each week the rest of the regular season. The trade deadline has passed in some leagues, but it hasn’t in others. So, this piece has a player to trade away, another to trade for and someone to stash or hold with an eye toward the fantasy playoffs.
In most leagues, only a few weeks are left in the fantasy football regular season. Teams have already clinched playoff berths, and others are on the doorstep of doing so. Unless your league has prizes for the regular-season finish, total points in the regular season, or you’re fighting tooth and nail for a bye in the first round of the playoffs, it’s more important to look ahead at the schedules for the fantasy playoffs than maximizing the chance to win each week the rest of the regular season. The trade deadline has passed in some leagues, but it hasn’t in others. So, this piece has a player to trade away, another to trade for and someone to stash or hold with an eye toward the fantasy playoffs.
Fantasy Football Playoff Lookahead Moves
J.K. Dobbins has been one of fantasy football’s most pleasant surprises this year. However, his workload since the return of Gus Edwards has been more good than great. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in the previous two weeks, Dobbins has handled 26 of Los Angeles’s backfield’s 46 rush attempts (56.5%) for 106 rushing yards (53.0 per game), 4.08 yards per carry, 0.81 yards before contact per attempt, 3.27 yards after contact per attempt, 0.16 missed tackles forced per attempt, a 65.4% stuff percentage and 7.7% explosive run percentage. Dobbins has been a bit of an all-or-nothing runner the last two weeks.
Sadly, he’s also handled only 37.5% of LA’s rush attempts inside the five in the previous two weeks because Jim Harbaugh has inexplicably insisted on feeding Hassan Haskins 37.5% of those attempts, too. Fortunately, since Week 10, Dobbins has run 26 routes versus four for the Gus Bus and two for Haskins. Yet, Dobbins had only four targets, four receptions and eight scoreless receiving yards. Still, Dobbins has a rock-solid role, albeit less impressive since Edwards returned.
The role change alone would be a reason to put out trade offers with Dobbins, but his schedule enhances the case for trading him. Dobbins has a two-star strength of schedule for the rest of the year. From Week 15 through Week 17, he will face the Buccaneers, Broncos and Patriots. The Patriots are a tasty matchup for Dobbins’s skill set, but the Bucs and Broncos are a poor skill-set fit. According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 8, Tampa Bay has faced a 58% situation-neutral pass rate, and Denver has faced a 62% situation-neutral pass rate.
Both are stingy against running backs on the ground. Per Pro Football Reference, the Broncos have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (80.5) and the Buccaneers have allowed 91.4 rushing yards per game to running backs. They’re also tied for the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (five) to running backs. Running backs can beat them through the air, but Dobbins has just 2.5 receptions and 11.5 receiving yards per game. Gamers shouldn’t give Dobbins away or cut him, but putting him on the trading block is logical.
Jauan Jennings is a fantasy WR1. It’s that simple. However, he was a waiver addition in most leagues and didn’t have much fanfare as a prospect or entering the season. So, the manager with Jennings might not quite value him as a top-12 WR for the rest of the season and would accept a trade as if he’s merely a top-25 or top-30 wideout.
Jennings’s underlying data without Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk is elite. The fifth-year pro has played three games without Samuel or Aiyuk this season. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in those three games (Week 3, Week 10 and Week 11), Jennings had an 88.7% route participation, 9.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 42.0% air-yard share, 35.1% target share, 0.32 targets per route run, 41.8% first-read percentage, two end zone targets, 28 receptions (9.3 per game), 359 receiving yards (119.7 per game), 3.52 yards per route run, four touchdowns and 19.6 expected half point per reception (half PPR) points per game. Among 110 wideouts with at least 125 routes this year, only Cooper Kupp (21.0 expected half PPR points per game) and Malik Nabers (20.4) have exceeded Jennings’s expected half PPR points per game in his three-game sample without Samuel or Aiyuk.
Jennings isn’t a flash in the pan. His ability to earn targets at an elite rate isn’t a fluke, and he’s parlayed his opportunities into production. Finally, Jennings’s playoff schedule is more good than bad. Sadly, he faces the Dolphins in Week 16, and they’ve held wideouts to the third-fewest half PPR points per game (21.8) this year. However, Jennings has the Rams and Lions on tap in Week 15 and Week 17, respectively, and they’ve yielded the 10th-most (29.2) and tied for the eighth-most (30.0) half PPR points allowed to wideouts this season.
Dalton Kincaid is on 95% of Yahoo! rosters and 86% of ESPN rosters. However, some managers might cut him during his Week 12 bye. Gamers shouldn’t cut him, and others in 12-team leagues or larger where he’s cut should add him.
The Bills have turned up the passing attack. Since Week 8, Buffalo is tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (60%) and seventh in plays per 60 minutes (64) in neutral game scripts. It’s a fantasy-friendly environment for Buffalo’s pass-catching weapons.
Kincaid hasn’t made the second-year leap. Instead, he’s endured a sophomore slump. Kincaid’s underlying data is more encouraging than his surface stats, though. Among 39 tight ends with at least 125 routes this season, Kincaid is 21st in route participation (59.7%), tied for the 12th-deepest average depth of target (8.0-yard aDOT), fifth in air-yard share (20.1%), seventh in target share (18.2%), fourth in targets per route run (0.27), 12th in yards per route run (1.75), third in yards after contact per reception (2.71), tied for seventh in end zone targets (four), ninth in first-read percentage (19.3%), tied for fifth in missed tackles forced per reception (0.21), 12th in first downs per route run (0.089) and 10th in expected half PPR points per game (9.8).
Kincaid’s advanced data says he’s a low-end TE1 or slightly better. Maybe he’ll continue to underperform his underlying data. As long as his knee injury doesn’t sideline him for any more contests, gamers can get a few looks at him potentially performing closer to his underlying data before trusting him in the fantasy playoffs. Gamers don’t need to start him in the fantasy playoffs if Kincaid doesn’t play closer to his advanced data in the run-up to Week 15.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
