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NFL DFS AFC Championship Round Picks: Chiefs vs. Bills (Fantasy Football)

There are only two contests left before the Super Bowl. The Commanders will play in hostile territory against the Eagles in Philadelphia, and the Bills will face their biggest nemesis in Kansas City. This piece will take a broad view of all four teams playing on Sunday while diving deeper into player-by-player analysis for classic contests and showdown games. Here are our top NFL DFS picks for Chiefs vs. Bills.

NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NFL AFC Championship DFS Picks: Chiefs vs. Bills

Spread/Total: KC -1.5/47.5 Points

The Chiefs are slight home favorites against the visiting Bills. The expectation is a close game, and these teams have routinely played close contests in recent years. However, how these offenses are likely to operate is less straightforward than those in the earlier game.

Since Week 13, the Chiefs have had a 65% situation-neutral pass rate. In Week 11 against the Bills, Kansas City had a 62% situation-neutral pass rate. My best guess is the Chiefs will put the ball in Patrick Mahomes‘ hands and let him cook. However, the Bills have faced a 49% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 14 and 51% in the playoffs.

Thus, there’s a chance the Chiefs believe running the ball is the path of the least resistance against the Bills, and Kareem Hunt has outperformed Isiah Pacheco. In Kansas City’s last five meaningful games (Week 14 through Week 17 and the Divisional Round), Hunt has had 46 rush attempts, 180 rushing yards, 3.91 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns and 100% of the team’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line versus 47, 149, 3.17, zero and zero percent. Pacheco also didn’t have an explosive run during that period. He’s not even an enticing option in showdown contests.

Still, as I previously stated, I expect Mahomes to do Kansas City’s heavy lifting on offense. Mahomes didn’t light it up last week. Yet, in Week 17, he completed 29 of 38 passes for 320 yards, three touchdowns and zero touchdowns against the Steelers on the road on Christmas. It was his best game of the season. Mahomes followed up a ho-hum 2023 season with 262.8 passing yards per game, six touchdowns and one interception in the playoffs last year, adding 35.3 rushing yards per game for good measure.

He’s also been borderline perfect against the Bills in the postseason. According to Pro Football Reference, in three meetings with the Bills in the playoffs, he’s completed 79 of 105 pass attempts (75.2%) for 918 yards (306 per game), eight touchdowns and zero interceptions with 18 rush attempts for 93 yards (31 per game) and one touchdown. It would be foolish to disregard Mahomes’ upside this week.

Travis Kelce is comfortably the most appealing stacking option with Mahomes, the top tight end and one of the most appealing picks at any position in classic contests. Kelce had a fine regular season. Nevertheless, I don’t put much weight in his solid-if-unspectacular regular-season production versus his postseason dominance.

Kelce had a season-high 117 receiving yards and a touchdown on seven receptions last week. He also closed the regular season with 11 targets, eight receptions, 84 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown in a tuneup for the playoffs in Week 17. Kelce had a similar postseason resurgence last year after a decent regular season. Last season, Kelce had 8.0 receptions per game, 88.8 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns in four playoff games.

Moreover, Kelce has eviscerated the Bills in the playoffs. In three playoff meetings against Buffalo, Kelce has had 30 targets, 26 receptions, 289 receiving yards and five touchdowns. If Matt Milano‘s hamstring soreness hampers him or Taylor Rapp‘s injuries sideline him this week, Kelce could be the primary beneficiary.

Xavier Worthy is Kansas City’s second-most appealing pass-catching option in DFS. Marquise Brown is another intriguing pick from the Chiefs, albeit he had an unappetizing bagel last week. The following table has the receiving statistics for Worthy, Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in the three games Brown’s been active.

Nuk's lack of involvement makes him an utter non-option in classic contests, and he's also uninteresting in showdown contests. Hollywood Brown is a rebound candidate after last week's dud due to his high air yards share and his high rate of targets per route run.

Yet, again, Worthy is Kansas City's most inviting non-Kelce pick. Worthy's rushing contributions weren't captured on the receiving table, either. In 18 games, Worthy has had 21 rush attempts for 96 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He also had a DFS-friendly showing against the Bills in the regular season, with five targets, four receptions, 61 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, one rush attempt and seven rushing yards.

Noah Gray and Justin Watson are Kansas City's other viable skill-position players in showdown contests. Gray has the fourth-most end zone targets (five) for the Chiefs this year and is tied for the team's second-most receiving touchdowns (five). Watson has a 15.3-yard aDOT, four end zone targets and two touchdowns this season. The Bills have allowed long receiving touchdowns in back-to-back games to Marvin Mims and Rashod Bateman. Therefore, Watson could sneak behind Buffalo's secondary for a long touchdown if they don't tighten up their secondary this week.

Josh Allen's ceiling is undeniable, but Joe Brady has effectively utilized the club's dominant offensive line and talented stable of running backs to steamroll teams on the ground. Since Week 14, the Bills have had a 55% situation-neutral rush rate, which jumped to 63% in the playoffs.

The Chiefs might be ill-equipped to push the Bills off their run-heavy approach. In Week 14 through Week 17 and the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Kansas City has coughed up 133.6 rushing yards per game, 5.48 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns.

James Cook is Buffalo's top running back. In 18 games this year, Cook has had the following stats.

  • 247 rush attempts
  • 66.4 rushing yards per game
  • 4.84 yards per carry
  • 17 rushing touchdowns
  • 45.9% of Buffalo's rush attempts inside the five-yard line when healthy
  • 43.3% stuff rate
  • 0.19 missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 34.8% route participation
  • 0.20 targets per route run
  • 1.9 receptions per game
  • 15.2 receiving yards per game
  • two receiving touchdowns

Cook can dip, dodge and dart through Kansas City's slumping run defense if they can't tighten it up. However, he can also chip in receiving contributions.

Ty Johnson is Buffalo's best receiving back, though. His likeliest path to fantasy relevance is the inverse of Cook, doing the bulk of his damage through the air while sprinkling in rushing production. In 19 games this year, Johnson had a 31.9% route participation rate, wideout-like 8.2-yard aDOT, 0.14 targets per route run, 21 receptions, 318 receiving yards (16.7 per game), four touchdown receptions and three end zone targets. Johnson's value would benefit from the Bills leaning on Allen's arm this week.

In Week 11, the Bills had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate against the Chiefs. In Buffalo's last six games against Kansas City, Allen has attempted 48, 40, 37, 39 and 40 passes. So, there is a recent precedent for the Bills leaning on Allen against the Chiefs, including 39 and 40 pass attempts in Brady's two games against Kansas City as the offensive coordinator.

Allen has frequently delivered big performances against the Chiefs. He also had an MVP-caliber regular season. The optimizer projects Allen to have the most points at quarterback on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Allen's legs are a significant component of his fantasy scoring. However, he'll need a big showing with his arm to hit his ceiling, providing an opportunity for one or more of Allen's pass-catchers to hitch a ride to a big game.

Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's top pass-catching weapon in their highly diverse deep rotation of wideouts and tight ends. In 17 games this year, he's first on the team in route participation (69.9%), target share (21.7%), targets per route run (0.28), first-read percentage (26.5%), receptions (88), receiving yards (949 at 55.8 per game) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four). Shakir has the highest value score among wide receivers at DraftKings and the second-highest at FanDuel in classic contests.

It's less clear who else could pop up from Buffalo's pass-catching corps to help DFS teams this week. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are matchup-driven options. In the regular season, Kansas City allowed the fourth-most DraftKings and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. According to Pro Football Reference, they also ceded the third-most receptions per game (6.24) and the most receiving yards per game (70.1) to tight ends. In Buffalo's last six meaningful games (Week 14 through Week 17 and both rounds of the playoffs), Knox had a 52.0% versus 50.3% route participation rate edge over Kincaid, but Kincaid had 7.9 expected fantasy points per game compared to 3.7 for Knox. Nevertheless, don't sleep on Knox as a sneaky contrarian pick in GPPs in classic contests and a sweet value in showdown games.

Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel aren't safe selections, but each has flashed potential at various times. Cooper had two receptions for 55 yards against the Chiefs, six for 95 against the Rams and three for 56 and a touchdown against the Jets.

Coleman has had the team's most end zone targets (three) in Buffalo's last six meaningful games and the most end zone targets (eight) this season despite missing four games. The big-bodied rookie wideout scored a touchdown in four games and cleared 60 receiving yards in three games.

Samuel had one of his best games of the year against the Chiefs, corralling five receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. He's also exceeded 50 receiving yards in two of his previous three games, including tallying three receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos in the Wild Card Round.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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