4 Late-Round Draft Targets: Rookie Pitchers (2025 Fantasy Baseball)

While the hype and desire to roster rookies in fantasy baseball is often heightened in dynasty leagues, there are always plenty of rookies in baseball that should be considered in redraft leagues as well. The unknown of a player who has never made the big leagues or has such a small sample that conclusions can’t be drawn is part of the interesting risk of playing fantasy baseball.

It’s typically advisable to not reach past average draft position (ADP) for unknown commodities in the early rounds of fantasy baseball drafts, but the later rounds of drafts are for taking big swings. Just like in baseball, sometimes you strike out, but often the pick can be a home run.

Late-Round Rookie Pitcher Targets

If fantasy baseball managers ignored players like Paul Skenes, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill or Colton Cowser last year just because they were rookies, that came back to hurt them in the end. However, the flip side of the argument was managers who made investments in players like Jackson Holliday (did not look ready for the major leagues) or Yoshinobu Yamamoto (hurt for half the season).

Drafting rookies is often a coin flip and an inexact science. This piece will look at four rookies in 2025 who are outside the top eight rounds of fantasy baseball ADP and could be potential winning pieces in our lineups.

At their draft day cost, there is not much risk to this group and the return on investment could be huge.

Bubba Chandler (SP – PIT) | ADP: 336.2

Last season, we saw how the Pittsburgh Pirates can work magic with young, uber-talented pitchers like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. This season, it might be time for Bubba Chandler to show that he belongs in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation just as much as Skenes and Jones.

Across two levels last season, Chandler finished the 2024 season with a 10-7 record, a 3.08 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 148 strikeouts in 119.2 innings. The former third-round draft pick is certain to make his Major League debut this season and is a non-roster invitee to spring training this February so he can get some experience against Major League batters.

Bubba Chandler takes the honor for the top fastball on the list.

“His heater is a demon in the making.” ????https://t.co/SKdLdoSSJD pic.twitter.com/XQkWAsZ0j1

– Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) January 23, 2025

In the Pirates’ rotation, it would appear Skenes, Jones and Mitch Keller are the only sure-fire locks for the 2025 season. Bailey Falter hasn’t reached his potential since coming over in a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies and has a career 4.62 ERA. Johan Oviedo did reach 177 innings and 32 starts last season but carried a 4.61 expected ERA (xERA) and a 4.87 expected FIP (xFIP).

Any injury or slide in production from these two would force the Pirates to make the call to bring up Chandler and his wicked fastball. They will likely manipulate the service time clock here, but a call-up at the end of May seems entirely reasonable.

Andrew Painter (SP – PHI) | ADP: 348.6

Philadelphia Phillies phenom pitcher Andrew Painter might have the toughest path to cracking a rotation of anyone on this list. All of Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo are established pitchers and form a solid 1-5 for a team with World Series aspirations. However, Painter is a top-10 prospect on any MLB list you will find for 2025 and may force the issue at some point by mid-season, even if it forces Philadelphia into a six-man rotation.

After missing two seasons due to Tommy John, Andrew Painter returned to the mound in the Fall League and he looked electric.

The 6-foot-7 right-hander is No. 8 on the 2025 Top 100 Prospects list: https://t.co/SDUw3758BP pic.twitter.com/xn39iCXfiG

– MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) January 25, 2025

Painter is only 21 but is already one of the more physically imposing pitchers in the minor leagues. His 6-foot-7 frame helps the ball explode out of his delivery. He is routinely in the upper 90s with his fastball and also features a curveball and a changeup. There is some risk here as he is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2023, but he looked great in the Arizona Fall League and is primed to once again blow away hitters in the Minors. He will almost certainly start in AAA — a level he has not pitched yet — and if he continues to dominate that level of competition, expect him to be in the Major Leagues no later than the All-Star break.

Jackson Jobe (SP – DET) | ADP: 273.4

On the MLB Top 100 Prospects list, Jackson Jobe is the highest-ranked prospect of the four pitchers in this group (fifth overall). Although the Detroit Tigers did make it out of the Wild Card round last season, the playoffs showed their desperate need for another stud pitcher behind Tarik Skubal. The team signed Jack Flaherty, but long-term, that job belongs to Jackson Jobe. Jobe combines an upper-90s fastball with a devastating slider in the mid-80s, which allowed him to strike out more than a batter per inning in the Minors in 2024 and post a 2.36 combined ERA.

Jackson Jobe first whiff on a 92 mph cutter pic.twitter.com/XqgCy2WVkl

– Eno Sarris (@enosarris) September 26, 2024

In the Detroit Tigers’ projected rotation, it is pretty clear that 37-year-old Alex Cobb is simply on this team to keep a seat warm for Jobe. Skubal, Flaherty, Reese Olson and former No.1 overall pick Casey Mize have spots locked down. Jobe was able to come up and get the smallest cup of coffee with the big club last season (four innings pitched, 0.00 ERA), but it’s only a matter of time before the 22-year-old Jobe is up for good. When he is, there is a strong case to be made he should already be on fantasy baseball rosters.

Kumar Rocker (SP – TEX) | ADP: 310.2

Despite just 64.2 innings in MiLB, the Texas Rangers gave 2022 third-overall pick Kumar Rocker his first taste of the big leagues late in the 2024 season. Rocker rocked his two AAA starts, throwing 18 strikeouts in 10 innings and allowing a 1.80 ERA. He then proceeded to throw 11.2 Major League innings with 14 strikeouts and a 3.86 ERA.

Rocker’s reputation as a fireball and strikeout artist followed him from Vanderbilt, where he used a fastball and one of the best sliders ever from any prospect to dominate college baseball. He had surgery in 2021, but the Rangers felt strongly enough about his potential in 2022 that they made him their top draft pick. Now he may be ready to entertain a permanent spot in the big leagues.

The biggest advantage Rocker has in terms of fantasy baseball potential is that he plays for the Rangers and their ambulance-chasing rotation. You may have heard but Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Tyler Mahle are not exactly the paragons of good health. The first spot that opens up will likely go to Rocker assuming a good spring training in 2025. Even if injuries don’t come, there have been talks about moving Jon Gray to the bullpen, which would immediately open up a spot in the backend of the rotation for Rocker.

Articles MLB MLB Draft Advice Paul Skenes Jackson Chourio Jackson Merrill Colton Cowser Jackson Holliday Yoshinobu Yamamoto Bubba Chandler Jared Jones Mitch Keller Bailey Falter Johan Oviedo Andrew Painter Zach Wheeler Aaron Nola Cristopher Sanchez Ranger Suarez Jesus Luzardo Jackson Jobe Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty Alex Cobb Reese Olson Casey Mize Kumar Rocker Jacob deGrom Nathan Eovaldi Jon Gray