NFL free agency always brings chaos, reshaping team rosters and shaking up fantasy football values. Some players land in ideal situations, primed to break out, while others see their stock plummet due to new competition or unfavorable circumstances.
As we gear up for the 2025 fantasy season, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown break down the biggest winners and losers from this year’s free agency period — highlighting which players gained the most value and who took the biggest hits.
Whether you’re preparing for upcoming best ball drafts or looking ahead to dynasty moves, these takeaways will help you stay ahead of the competition.
Let’s dive in.
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NFL Free Agency Winners: Fantasy Football
Quarterbacks
“Everything’s coming up Milhouse,” Simpsons character Milhouse Van Houten once exclaimed upon a run of good luck.
Well, everything’s coming up J.J. McCarthy this NFL offseason.
The 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, McCarthy missed his entire rookie season after tearing his meniscus in the preseason. Sam Darnold played well in McCarthy’s absence, leading the Minnesota Vikings to the playoffs. But Minnesota chose not to re-sign Darnold and also declined to re-sign Daniel Jones, who had joined the team last season after his release from the New York Giants. McCarthy now seems destined to be the Vikings’ Week 1 starter.
Minnesota also dramatically upgraded its offensive line, adding arguably the best free-agent guard available in Will Fries along with center Ryan Kelly.
The Vikings also re-signed veteran running back Aaron Jones, who’s coming off a 1,138-yard rushing season and provides offensive balance.
— Pat Fitzmaurice
One of the biggest needs the Chicago Bears had to address this offseason was improving the offensive line. They got ahead of the free-agency frenzy by acquiring Joe Thuney from the Chiefs for a 2026 fourth-round pick. This was the second move they made to improve the offensive line, having already acquired Jonah Jackson from the Rams for a sixth-round pick earlier.
But they didn’t stop there. During free agency, they replaced center Coleman Shelton with ex-Falcons center Drew Dalman. Many viewed Dalman as the top center available on the market.
Chicago is finally getting the much-needed protection for Caleb Williams, entering his second season under new head coach Ben Johnson.
— Andrew Erickson
Justin Fields has been freed from starting status limbo. There’s no question he will be the New York Jets’ starting quarterback for 2025. He is now back in the discussion as a late-round fantasy draft option with top-12 fantasy upside.
Last year, during his starting run with Pittsburgh, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game. He displayed his usual rushing equity, which we should expect to continue this season, with at least 27 rushing yards in five of his six starts (surpassing 50 rushing yards three times).
Fields also surprised as a passer, ranking 10th in highly accurate throw rate and 13th-best in off-target rate, per Fantasy Points Data. Fields is a clear winner exiting the free-agent frenzy.
— DBro
Honorable mention:
Running Backs
Najee Harris getting airdropped into an offense that likes to feature one back and lean on the run sounds like a match made in heaven, right? The Los Angeles Chargers could continue to add to this backfield in the draft, but it’s impossible to look at Harris right now as anything but a huge winner from NFL free agency.
Harris has been a solid, if not uninspiring, running back over the last two years, as the RB25 and RB30 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 26th in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Harris should be considered a strong RB2 right now, with RB1 upside in 2025 if everything breaks his way.
— DBro
The Pittsburgh Steelers committee backfield has been blown apart. Najee Harris heads to the West Coast as Jaylen Warren returns to the Steelers to lead the way for Arthur Smith’s rushing offense. Warren dealt with knee and hamstring issues last year, which sapped his tackle-breaking ability. Once he was back to close to full health, he looked like the back we have come to love.
In Weeks 10-18, among 45 qualifying backs, he ranked 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Warren looks like the team’s workhorse back for 2025 right now. If that comes to fruition and he avoids a highly drafted back in the NFL Draft, Warren should be viewed as an RB2 with RB1 upside.
— DBro
Wide Receivers
Sam Darnold is a competent enough quarterback that I don’t think we need to view the Seattle Seahawks’ offense too differently than we did when Geno Smith was slated to be the starter just a week ago.
As I noted in the Seahawks’ outlook portion of my Geno Smith traded to the Raiders reaction article, they want to get back to the basics of running the football and playing defense in 2025.
For somebody like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnold is a perfect quarterback for him to dominate the target share.
Smith-Njigba had six games with double-digit targets last season and averaged 18.4 half-PPR points per game, good for WR2 last season. Give him volume and he should be a fringe fantasy WR1.
The Seahawks will run a lot of two-receiver sets, meaning Smith-Njigba will be competing for opportunities with running backs and tight ends more than other receivers. He should be targeted by Darnold, just as we saw the ex-Vikings quarterback do at times with Justin Jefferson last season.
Except in this situation, it won’t stop because the Seahawks don’t have other featured pass-catchers. The current receiver depth chart behind Smith-Njigba includes Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Bobo, Dareke Young, Jaelon Darden and Cody White.
Now, the Seahawks did make a splashy-headline signing with the addition of Cooper Kupp as the projected No. 2 WR. I think many will look at this as a negative for JSN. But Kupp is way past his prime to consider him a legitimate threat for Smith-Njigba. Kupp has missed an average of six games over the last three seasons.
In his last seven games with Los Angeles during the 2024 season, Kupp has had more than three catches twice. JSN had 4-plus catches in 13 games played last season.
It’s beyond telling that the Rams opted to spend the money on 32-year-old Davante Adams in free agency, and just flat out release Kupp for nothing after failing to find a trade partner.
JSN established himself as the No. 1 in Seattle’s offense in 2024, and exchanging the target competition of Lockett/Metcalf for Kupp/Valdes-Scantling should not be looked at as a downgrade.
In conclusion, Seattle’s offense doesn’t project to be “fun” for fantasy football, but Darnold should keep the main fantasy football contributors operating at expectations. He has experience with Klint Kubiak from their time spent in San Fran in 2023, which produced two top-15 fantasy wide receivers. Although I am concerned that Kupp won’t live up to the expectations thrust upon based on his name alone.
— Andrew Erickson
Garrett Wilson has topped 1,000 receiving yards in his first three NFL seasons, but it still feels as if there’s meat left on the bone. Wilson had to deal with putrid quarterback play in his first two seasons, and last year he had to share targets with Davante Adams, who had established chemistry with quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
With Adams leaving via free agency, Wilson is now the New York Jets’ undisputed lead receiver. Even if the Jets sign another receiver via free agency or take one in the draft, Wilson still figures to be the clear No. 1 WR.
While it can’t be said that the Jets have made a definitive upgrade at the quarterback position by signing Justin Fields, the quarterback change should bode well for Wilson, since he and Fields played together at Ohio State for two seasons.
This could be the year Wilson puts it all together and finishes as a high-end WR1.
— Pat Fitzmaurice
Honorable mention:
Tight Ends
Evan Engram should be a focal point in the Denver passing attack in 2025, competing weekly with Courtland Sutton for the team lead in targets. When he was a heavily featured asset in an NFL passing attack, Engram was a top-five fantasy tight end.
The most recent example of this was in 2023 when he was the TE4 in fantasy points per game while commanding a 23.8% target share (second-best among tight ends). During that season, he lined up in the slot or out wide on 73.9% of his snaps while ranking ninth in yards per route run overall and third in yards per route run versus man coverage among tight ends, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Engram’s floor is as a rock-solid TE1 in 2025, but his ceiling is finishing this upcoming season as a top-three fantasy option at the position.
— DBro
No one is going to make Brenton Strange a primary target in fantasy drafts, but the third-year tight end could be in line for a bigger role in the Jacksonville Jaguars passing game and could become consistently fantasy-relevant.
The Jaguars let tight ends Evan Engram and Luke Farrell walk in free agency. Over his three seasons in Jacksonville, Engram had 234 catches and 2,094 receiving yards in 43 regular-season games.
We can’t automatically project the same sort of numbers for Strange, but it’s worth noting that in the eight games Engram missed last season, Strange had 29 catches for 275 yards and two touchdowns. That’s low-end TE1/high-end TE2 production.
A second-round draft pick in 2023, Strange could be a sneaky-good tight end option for fantasy managers in 2025.
— Pat Fitzmaurice
The Geno Smith trade is a major boost for incumbents such as Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Smith’s calling card is accuracy, with the fifth-highest completion percentage in the NFL last season (70.4%). Per Fantasy Points Data, Smith was also top-12 in accurate ball placement and fifth in catchable throw rate (78.2%).
Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders’ cumulative catchable throw rate ranked sixth-worst (72%).
In my early 2025 top-12 fantasy tight ends video, I mentioned being bearish on Bowers at his average draft position (ADP) given the question marks about the Raiders’ quarterback situation in 2025. But I’ll be the first to admit that with Smith at the helm, Bowers’ chances of returning his second-round draft capital have increased substantially.
— Andrew Erickson
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