Wide receiver is a deep position in fantasy football. Nevertheless, hitting on a wideout who drastically outproduces their average draft position (ADP) can have a significant impact on a team’s finish.
The following two wideouts have an expert consensus ranking (ECR) outside the top-24 wide receivers but could finish as top-12 wideouts in 2025.
- 2025 NFL Draft Guide
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- 2025 NFL Mock Drafts
- Dynasty Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football WR3s With WR1 Potential
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC) | ECR: 58.2/WR29
Xavier Worthy isn’t a perfect, do-it-all wide receiver. Yet, unsurprisingly, Andy Reid figured out how to best utilize the speedy wideout in his rookie campaign, and catching passes from Patrick Mahomes is fantasy-friendly.
Among wide receivers who played more than four games in 2024, Worthy was only the WR43 in half-PPR points per game (9.3). It was a decent rookie showing, but Worthy’s finish to his 2024 campaign paints a positive outlook for a much better 2025 campaign.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Worthy had the following stats from Week 11 through Week 17 and the playoffs (I excluded Week 18 because Worthy played only one snap since it was a meaningless contest for the Chiefs):
- 78.7% route participation
- 7.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 22.6% air yards share
- 21.1% target share
- 0.23 targets per route run
- 26.3% first-read share
- 75 targets (7.5 per game)
- 58 receptions (5.8 per game)
- 679 receiving yards (67.9 per game)
- 2.11 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- 6 touchdown receptions
- 14.6 half-PPR points per game
- 13.6 expected half-PPR points per game
Worthy’s 14.6 half-PPR points per game from Week 11 through the Super Bowl, excluding Week 18, would have ranked tied for the WR7 for the entire regular season. His 13.6 half-PPR points per game made him the WR14, so Worthy would have been just outside the WR1 rankings if he played to his expected points instead of his actual scoring.
Worthy’s contributions weren’t limited to receiving, either. In his final 10 games, excluding Week 18, he had 14 rush attempts for 75 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Not everything is ideal for Worthy’s 2025 outlook. He could face stiffer competition for targets this year. Rashee Rice‘s 2024 season was cut short by a torn PLC in his right knee, and Marquise Brown missed most of the regular season with a sternoclavicular joint sprain. However, Hollywood’s presence in the offense at the end of the regular season and in the postseason didn’t negatively impact Worthy’s production. Instead, Worthy excelled after Brown returned.
Given the severity of Rice’s knee injury, I’m unsure of how well he’ll play for most or all of the 2025 season. If Rice doesn’t make a seamless return from his knee injury, Worthy could be Kansas City’s top passing-game weapon, paving the way to a WR1 finish this season.
Josh Downs (WR – IND) | ECR: 101.8/WR43
Josh Downs’ 2024 season was a tale of playing with Joe Flacco and playing with Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis’s slot wideout was at his best when Flacco was chucking the pigskin. Flacco recently signed with the Browns, and Richardson is still on the Colts. So, the initial thinking might be that gamers should be down on Downs entering this year.
However, the Colts signed Daniel Jones to a one-year deal with a base value of $14 million and a max value of $17.7 million. Richardson and Jones will compete for the starting quarterback job. The optimistic outlook for Downs is that Richardson will take a step forward and lead the Colts, or Jones will bump the third-year pro down the depth chart. An improved Richardson or Jones can match Flacco’s underwhelming play from 2024, when Downs had the following stats in the seven games with Flacco attempting 20-plus passes:
Downs was a target hog when Indy had even semi-competent quarterback play last year. Downs’s 11.9 half-PPR points per game in the sample on the table would have tied Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the WR21 among wide receivers who played more than four games in 2024. His 15.8 expected half-PPR points per game mark would have finished as the WR2, slightly more than Justin Jefferson‘s 15.6.
Among 39 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks in the regular and postseason last year, Flacco was 24th in the Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade. Jones was 27th and Richardson was 35th.
Richardson will join Josh Allen and quarterback trainers in Jacksonville this offseason to attempt to make strides in his third professional season. It’s foolish to expect Richardson to make an Allen-like surge in production. Still, even a slight step forward could do wonders for Downs.
Jones is also an intriguing fallback option. When Jones started for the Giants in Week 1 through Week 10 last year, Malik Nabers was the WR9 in half-PPR points per game (13.6). Downs isn’t the same caliber of wide receiver as Nabers. Nonetheless, Nabers’ success in Jones’ starts last year is an encouraging data point for Downs’ 2025 outlook if Jones wins the quarterback competition.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
