Year to year, the viability of the late-round quarterback fantasy football best ball draft strategy fluctuates depending on the success of the players available in that range. We have to consider it in both that framing, but also the framing of how early quarterbacks work out.
If paying up for elite quarterbacks was dominant, it would be hard for late-round quarterbacks to win out. The theory behind the late-round quarterback fantasy football draft strategy is that it isn’t worth paying up for early quarterbacks, but with so many dynamic threats near the top of the draft board, does that still hold true in 2025? Let’s dive into fantasy football late-round quarterback best ball draft strategy.
Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice: Late-Round QB
In 2024, the first six quarterbacks in average draft position (ADP) produced widely different results, with Lamar Jackson dazzling once again and finishing as the QB1 with a massive 30.3% advance rate; he undeniably paid off his ADP and was a strong pick.
Patrick Mahomes likely never belonged ahead of Jackson in ADP, further evidence of the difficulty pocket passers face competing with dual-threats. Mahomes averaged a miserable 9.9% advance rate, significantly down from the base rate of 16.7%. Anthony Richardson had the lowest advance rate among all quarterbacks drafted 100+ times, and C.J. Stroud was only two spots higher. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts continue to accumulate enough tush push touchdowns to make it difficult for them to fail.
This table highlights a couple of different points that we should expand upon. First, it shows that quarterbacks at the top of the draft board can be highly volatile, with half of this crop failing substantially. Second, it shows that we have to be careful about the type of archetype we push up to this point.
Jackson has averaged 59.9 rushing yards per game over his career. Even in the injury-plagued seasons of 2021 and 2022, Jackson still recorded 750+ yards. Meanwhile, Allen has gone over 500 yards in each of the last four seasons and rushed for double-digit touchdowns in each of the last two. Jalen Hurts has rushed for more than 600 yards in four straight seasons, with double-digit rushing touchdowns in all four.
C.J. Stroud had finished as the QB12 in 2023, with a strong advance rate having been drafted at 180th overall, but he didn’t belong in this tier, with only two top-five weekly finishes in 2023 and only two of the top 100 fantasy performances at his position in his rookie year. Stroud was a victim of hype. He couldn’t live up to expectations as the Texans regressed heavily, and his 14.6 rushing yards per game ranked 28th among quarterbacks, failing to help him come close to the true elites.
Anthony Richardson, on the other hand, averaged the third-most rushing yards but completed passes at a rate below Tim Tebow’s dreadful efforts many moons ago, causing him to be a dead fish on your roster. The belief was Richardson’s rushing floor was too good to allow him to fail, but now we know differently.
Patrick Mahomes set career lows in passing yards, touchdowns and yards per attempt, and took more sacks than ever before while rushing for his lowest rates since 2019.
In previous years, we’ve seen incredible fantasy seasons from late-round quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in 2019, who were drafted as the QB14 and the QB21, respectively, before Jalen Hurts in 2021 was drafted as the QB12 and Justin Fields in 2022 was the QB17.
As fantasy managers have become more aware of where these fantastic seasons come from, and the correlation to rushing production, it kept Anthony Richardson as a top-12 option for 2023, when he only played a handful of games, and into 2024, when he disappointed massively. Dual-threat quarterbacks tend to be a cheat code at the position, but there are still stars in the late rounds.
Out of the top eight quarterbacks in advance rate, four had an ADP of 125 or later.
Where Do Top Quarterback Performers Come From?
If we zoom out slightly, we can see over the four years where the top 12 performances are coming from when we break them into buckets of ADP.
Over the last three years, we’ve seen at least three QBs finish inside the top 12, who weren’t drafted till 125 or later. While the top bucket, picks 1-60, has produced a stable four top-12 QBs per year.
If we revert to looking at this through the eyes of advance rates, we see that the later we take our QB1, the more difficult it has been in recent years to advance at a rate over 16.7%. If we’re taking our QB2 in this range, however, the averages aren’t particularly good or particularly bad.
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
| QB1 After R10 |
11.80% |
19.30% |
18.30% |
15% |
| QB1 After R12 |
12.50% |
12.30% |
19.90% |
14.40% |
| QB1 After R15 |
8.50% |
10.10% |
15.40% |
12.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| QB2 After R10 |
16.00% |
17.90% |
17.30% |
16.40% |
| QB2 After R12 |
16.30% |
16.10% |
18.10% |
16.10% |
| QB2 After R15 |
17.30% |
16.40% |
18.50% |
14.80% |
Of course, in best ball, we’re not aiming for one quarterback to be our everything, unless, of course, you’re paying up for an elite one, in which case it’s right to expect a good amount from them. But typically, we’re looking for a collection of 2-3 signal-callers who consistently give us high scores without sacrificing draft capital to get that.
The true value of late-round quarterbacks in best ball appears to be in landing on the perfect QB2 or QB3. For reasons laid out in this article, it should be clear that predicting these breakouts isn’t always easy, which is why it can pay off to approach drafts differently and look to gain exposure to different players.
Typically, the late-round quarterbacks who work out well have one of two factors play out that boost them significantly:
- Dual-threat abiliities
- Good offensive environment that outplays expectations
It’s simply such a massive benefit that it’s easy for average quarterbacks to become top 12 fantasy performers if they can add 30-40 rushing yards per game.
If a quarterback is in this range, they typically have question marks about themselves and the talent around them, but if a wide receiver breakout occurs, like Nico Collins in 2023, then it can help to elevate the quarterback and everyone else.
Potential Late-Round QB Targets
If we look at 2025 ADP, combine it with quarterback rushing yards per game from 2024 and look at how the passing offenses performed, we can gain an overview of what they could improve upon for 2025.
Anthony Richardson‘s rushing yards stand out massively in this range, but the risk of being benched also looms heavily. Because of this, Richardson is best reserved for 3-QB builds only.
Tua Tagovailoa is an interesting name, as we’ve seen him be a top-12 fantasy quarterback before, but we’ve also seen miserable performances from both him and the Dolphins. It seems a pivotal year for Miami across the board. If they can step forward, then it feels likely we will see Tagovailoa pay off this ADP.
This is one where we likely can ignore Tagovailoa unless we’re stacking him with multiple pieces of the Dolphins offense.
Geno Smith wasn’t necessarily a good fantasy asset in 2024, finishing as the QB15 in total points, but the high-tempo offense the Raiders will likely employ could benefit him after moving on from a Seahawks team that ranked 25th in plays per game in 2024.
Matthew Stafford is another interesting name in this range due to the addition of Davante Adams. Puka Nacua has only scored nine touchdowns in two seasons thus far, and Stafford suffered in fantasy last year due to throwing fewer than two touchdowns in 10 of his 16 games.
The addition of Adams could significantly help the team in the red zone and potentially elevate Stafford once again.
Bryce Young is the last name we’ll bring attention to here, with his 17.3 rushing yards per game the second-most of any quarterback in this range. It’s also noteworthy that from Week 12 onwards last year, Young was the QB11 in points per game and now has the additional benefit of Tetairoa McMillan on his offense.
Final Thoughts
If you plan on drafting your first quarterback beyond pick 100, you need a clear plan for the options that will complement them. If you take Trevor Lawrence, then you need to pair him with Michael Penix or C.J. Stroud in the next round. After selecting those two, I would aim to take a player with much greater upside to round out your quarterback selections. Two-quarterback builds are no longer viable this late in the draft, and three is the bare minimum to leave a draft with if you’ve waited this late to take your first.
If you draft an elite quarterback in the early rounds, you’ll need them to pay off weekly for your roster to succeed. As such, the type of late-round pairing you should look for is a solid and steady starter who might give you a lower score when called upon but will keep your team from putting up a zero that week. An example of this would be Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford.
As ever in best ball, being fluid with our thinking in drafts is essential. Keeping an eye on our opponent’s builds, specifically at the quarterback position, in this case, will help us to determine how long we can wait. If you’re struggling to decide on a quarterback in the later rounds, don’t be afraid to reach slightly to complete a stack. The cost of reaching on ADP can be outweighed by the value of the stack.
*Much of the data in this article came from RotoViz’s Roster Construction tool.
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