MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (6/22)

Today is another good day to watch baseball from the comfort of your air-conditioned home. Have the games have some stakes by playing a bit of DFS.

Today, we’re examining the early slate, which begins at 11:35 a.m. ET. It’s a smaller slate that includes only six games on DraftKings. FanDuel adds a seventh game between Arizona and Colorado.

• Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
• Daily Projections

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (6/22)

• Logan Gilbert came back from the injured list (IL) last week and showed right away why he can justify his expensive price tag. He struck out 10 batters against the Red Sox in just five innings. That was with only 84 pitches, but that should be back to the mid-90s count that we typically expect from Gilbert. He has a tough matchup with the Cubs, but he has the most upside of any pitcher on the slate.
• A mid-tier pitching option on this slate is Quinn Priester. His strikeouts run hot and cold. He has two seven-strikeout games in his last five, but struck out a total of seven in the other three games combined. What he has shown is that he can limit runs and provide volume. Since May 7th, Priester has gone at least five innings in all eight of his starts and has a 2.23 ERA during that span.
• If you’re looking for a cheaper starting pitcher, consider Bailey Falter. He has been good at limiting runs with only a 3.49 ERA. He is not getting the strikeouts we want with only a 15.7% strikeout rate. However, Falter faces the Texas Rangers today. They have a 25.7% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, which is the sixth-highest in the league.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves Projected Lineup (6/22)

• Sandy Alcantara has started 13 games against the Atlanta Braves in his career. As you would expect from a former Cy Young winner, he has a 2.94 ERA against Atlanta, but this isn’t the same Alcantara. He has a 6.88 ERA on the season. He has been better in June with only a 2.12 ERA, but those matchups included Colorado and Pittsburgh. Atlanta is a tougher test.
• Any discussion of Atlanta has to start with leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna Jr. He has the highest wRC+ in baseball since he came off the IL. His history with Alcantara also includes six extra-base hits, including two home runs.
• Another batter with an extensive history against Alcantara is Ozzie Albies. He has gone 11-for-39 against Alcantara in his career. Five of those hits have been extra-base hits, including two home runs.
• One more batter with extensive career success against Alcantara in Marcell Ozuna. He has nine hits in only 22 at-bats against Alcantara. Given Ozuna’s power-hitting history, it’s a bit surprising he only has two doubles against the Marlins starter and zero home runs. That could change today.

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (6/22)

• The way the Milwaukee Brewers are scoring runs against the Minnesota Twins can’t be ignored. In the first two games of this series, the Brewers have outscored the Twins 26-6. Today, they’ll be opposed by David Festa. He has had his struggles in his three starts since returning from Triple-A, including four home runs allowed in only 13 innings.
• One of the hottest hitters in all of baseball right now is Christian Yelich. He has four multi-hit games in his last five, with four doubles in those games. He has nine RBI already in only two games against the Twins.
• Another hot player is Jackson Chourio. His 10-game hitting streak was snapped yesterday, but he still has had an impressive June — three home runs, four stolen bases, and an .869 OPS.
• Some cheaper options to consider are Isaac Collins and Joey Ortiz. Collins is in the middle of a five-game hitting streak during which he has two doubles and two home runs. Ortiz is very affordably priced due to his slow start. He has had three straight multi-hit games, so maybe we are seeing the start of the turnaround.

Core Studs

• Nolan Arenado is against left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott today. Abbott has been good this season, but Arenado has had his number in his career. Arenado is 7-for-15 against Abbott in his career with two home runs.
• It worked so well yesterday that we’re going back to Bo Bichette today. Bichette now has three home runs in his last five games. His home OPS is up to .933.
• What more can you say about Cal Raleigh? He hit his league-leading 30th home run yesterday, which was his fourth in his last four games. He is showing no signs of slowing down with a 1.070 OPS this month.

Value Plays/Punts

• Another Blue Jay I’m going back to the well with is Alejandro Kirk. He only had one hit in four at-bats yesterday, but his hard-hit rate can’t be ignored. His 40.8% hard-hit rate on the season is 14th among qualified batters.
• I try to avoid recommending batters who are opposing a recommended pitcher. However, with a smaller slate like this, that becomes challenging. If you are looking for a blowup opportunity from an affordably priced player, look at Matt Wallner. He has a 63% hard-hit rate in June.
• At its most basic, the way to hit home runs is to hit the ball hard in the air. Miguel Vargas is hitting the ball in the air 66% of the time in June. That has helped him to hit seven extra-base hits, including two home runs, this month.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Ben Williamson (3B – SEA): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Lower

Over his last 10 games, Ben Williamson is 6-for-31 with two runs scored. Because of that, he has missed this mark in nine of his last 10 games. If you go back further and include all of June, he would have only eclipsed this mark three times in 16 games.

Eugenio Suarez (3B – ARI): 0.5 RBI — Higher

This category can be tricky because recording an RBI is often dependent on someone else in the lineup being on base for the batter. With the way Eugenio Suarez is batting right now, he can just as easily drive in himself.

Since the start of June, Suarez has 10 home runs and 25 RBI in 18 games. He has at least one RBI in 11 games, including in six of his last seven games.

Matt Shaw (2B, 3B, SS – CHC): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Lower

Matt Shaw is one of the Cubs who gets the tough matchup against Logan Gilbert. It has been a struggle for Shaw recently. He is 3-for-35 over his last 11 games with only one RBI.

That game he recorded the RBI was the only one where he exceeded a combined 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in his last 11 games.

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