I must start by addressing the elephant in the room. I didn’t include Jared Goff as a quarterback to avoid at his average draft position (ADP). He’s still the quarterback I’m the most disinterested in at his ADP. However, I previously wrote about him in April, and I have nothing new to add to Goff’s analysis. So, readers should check out that piece for the case against Goff in redraft leagues. The two quarterbacks below are a veteran gunslinger coming off a career year and a rookie with dubious company after a discouraging first professional campaign.
- Best Ball Rankings
- Best Ball Consensus ADP
- 2025 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Quarterbacks at ADP
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB): 72.0 ADP/QB7
Baker Mayfield was tied for the QB17 in points per game (16.7) among quarterbacks with more than five games played in 2023 before surging to tied for the QB3 in points per game (22.5) in 2024. A year after thriving in Dave Canales’s offense, he assuaged any concerns about a change at offensive coordinator by having a career year with Liam Coen calling the offense in 2024.
Unfortunately, Mayfield’s offensive coordinator was poached again, leaving him with a first-time offensive coordinator. The Buccaneers promoted 35-year-old Josh Grizzard from their pass-game coordinator to the offensive coordinator. The layer of mystery around how Grizzard will do as a first-time offensive coordinator and play-caller is suboptimal for Mayfield’s 2025 fantasy football outlook. Yet, even if Coen were still Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, I would suggest fading Mayfield at his ADP.
According to Pro Football Reference, Mayfield set career highs for completion percentage (71.4%), passing touchdowns (41), touchdown rate (7.2%), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.13) and rushing yards per game (22.2). Mayfield also tied his career high for rushing touchdowns (three) and had his most passing yards per game (264.7) since his rookie season in 2018 (266.1). It’s too ambitious to expect him to repeat career-year marks across the board. In fairness, his ranking as the QB7 suggests gamers aren’t drafting him to repeat last season.
Nevertheless, his ranking among all positions is too rich for a pocket passer. Mayfield’s previous high for rushing yards per game before exploding for 22.2 in 2024 was 10.3 in 2020, his only other season besting 10 rushing yards per game. Before last year’s three rushing touchdowns in 17 games, Mayfield had seven in 89 games. He’s not suddenly a more athletically gifted quarterback, so a fall closer to his career average of 11.3 rushing yards per game is the most likely outcome for 2025.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Buccaneers had the ninth-highest pass rate inside the 10-yard line (56.8%) in 2024. Tampa Bay was fourth in pass rate inside the 10-yard line (61.7%) in 2023. Mayfield was tied for second in passing touchdowns (41) and second in touchdown rate (7.2%) in 2024 after finishing seventh in passing touchdowns (28) and tied for 10th in touchdown rate (4.9%) in 2023 despite a lower pass rate inside the 10-yard line in 2024. The touchdown surge doesn’t pass the sniff test, and Mayfield repeating his 2023 passing touchdown output would be a reasonable outcome for him this year without a massive uptick in passing rate inside the 10-yard line. After Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker shined as runners behind Tampa Bay’s talented offensive line last year, I’m skeptical of Grizzard calling a more pass-happy offense in scoring territory this season.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Buccaneers were tied for the eighth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (58%) in 2023 and dipped to tied for 19th (54%) in 2024. Again, Mayfield jumped from tied for QB17 in 2023 to tied for QB3 in points per game in 2024 despite play-calling that should have worked against his fantasy scoring. Mayfield can fend off some regression if Grizzard calls pass plays at a higher rate than his predecessor. Mayfield can also benefit from the Buccaneers picking wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft. Nonetheless, Mayfield shouldn’t be picked approximately two rounds ahead of fellow pocket-passer Brock Purdy. Gamers who don’t select one of the elite quarterbacks are better off waiting beyond Mayfield and double-dipping on cheaper signal-callers such as Purdy, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Jordan Love and J.J. McCarthy and playing matchups until one emerges as a consistent weekly starter. Furthermore, if double-dipping doesn’t work out, streaming is unlikely to be much worse than Mayfield in the aggregate if Tampa Bay’s quarterback’s rushing and touchdowns regress.
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI): 93.5 ADP/QB11
Caleb Williams was the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and his most vocal supporters called him a generational talent. Williams bought into his hype, texting Tory Taylor, a punter out of Iowa, after the Bears drafted him to tell him “you’re not going to punt too much here.” According to Pro Football Reference, Taylor was second in the NFL in punt yards (3,911) last year. Hilariously, Taylor’s 3,911 punt yards were nearly 400 more than Williams’s 3,541 passing yards in their rookie campaigns.
Before the 2024 season, Williams’s optimists hyped up his supporting cast of D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet as a top-shelf group. In the 2025 offseason, those same folks are walking back their comments and blaming everyone but Williams for his atrocious rookie season. Williams hasn’t helped his cause with quotes from his father about no one on last year’s coaching staff helping Williams with watching film. Nevertheless, gamers are drafting Williams as a starting quarterback in 12-team fantasy leagues and ignoring many red flags.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), 40 quarterbacks had at least 200 dropbacks last season, and Williams was 30th in their passing grade. Williams also had the fifth-longest time to throw (TTT) at 3.05 seconds, and his 28.2% pressure-to-sack rate (P2S%) was the second-highest, behind only Will Levis‘s 30.4 P2S%. Funny enough, this won’t be the only time Williams and Levis are in the same conversation. The following table has the quarterbacks drafted since 2015 with at least 200 dropbacks, a 3.5% turnover-worthy-play rate (TWP%), a 23.0 P2S% and at least 3.00 seconds TTT in their final collegiate season.
Williams is in unflattering company with Quinn Ewers, Levis, Malik Willis and Luke Falk.
Williams also isn’t in an encouraging group of quarterbacks after his rookie season. The following table shows the drafted quarterbacks since 2015 with at least 200 pass attempts, 210 passing yards per game or fewer, 5.10 adjusted net yards per attempt or less and at least a 10.0% sack rate, per Stathead.
There isn’t a positive spin to put on Williams’s rookie season. I might draft him on a few of my best ball teams in micro-stakes tournaments, but that’s not a lock. However, I can say with 100% certainty I won’t draft Williams in any redraft home leagues. Gamers should let someone else in their league dig in on their prior evaluations of Williams and unwisely pick him.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
