It’s never too early to look ahead at redraft fantasy football leagues. While spring is a time for optimism, it can’t be rainbows and butterflies for all teams and players. The following four players are unattractive at their expert consensus ranking (ECR) for various reasons, ranging from supporting cast to talent level or archetype of player.
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Players to Avoid in Redraft Leagues
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) | ECR: 13/RB5
De’Von Achane is a spicy inclusion in this piece because his weekly and season-long ceiling is the RB1. Yet, as Saquon Barkley illustrated during his time with the Giants before exploding last year with the Eagles, running backs are frequently at the mercy of their supporting cast.
Unfortunately, Achane’s ecosystem has two waving red flags. The first was his sensitivity to Tua Tagovailoa‘s health last season. The second is Miami’s offensive line. The following table has Achane’s 2024 splits with and without Tagovailoa via stats from the data suite at Fantasy Points.
Sadly, Tagovailoa suffered another concussion last season. He also missed the final two games of the regular season with a hip injury. Fortunately, Tagovailoa’s hip injury wasn’t related to his college injury. Still, Tagovailoa’s concussion and injury history are troubling.
His life is unlikely to get easier this year after Terron Armstead announced his retirement. Armstead’s retirement is also potentially disastrous for Miami’s rushing attack. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded the Dolphins 27th in run blocking last season.
The run-blocking issues weren’t Armstead’s fault. Among 112 tackles with at least 100 run-blocking snaps, Armstead had PFF’s sixth-highest run-blocking grade. Ourlads projects second-year pro Patrick Paul to start at left tackle this season.
Paul was 110th in PFF’s run-blocking grade among the same sample of 112 tackles. Yikes. Miami didn’t adequately replace guard Robert Hunt after losing him in free agency last year. Paul has massive shoes to fill. I understand the appeal of Achane, but the supporting-cast concerns are enough for me to push him down to the back end of the second round instead of the first-to-second round turn.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) | ECR: 28/RB12
I highlighted Breece Hall as a running back to avoid in the middle of February, and I’m doubling down. Hall was electrifying and dynamic in his NFL debut in 2022, but his rushing production has slid after he tore his ACL in his injury-abbreviated rookie year. I included the following table in the linked piece from February, but it warrants inclusion here, too.
Rushing production is only part of Hall's fantasy football profile because he's a talented pass-catching weapon. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Hall has averaged 3.8 receptions and 32.3 receiving yards per game. Unfortunately, Justin Fields is Gang Green's new starting quarterback, and he hasn't historically peppered his running backs with targets, which makes sense since he's a talented scrambler.
Even with 3.6 receptions per game, 30.2 receiving yards per game and three rushing touchdowns last year, Hall was the RB18 in half-PPR points per game (13.3).
The optimism of an RB12 ECR is head-scratching before addressing the elephant in the room. Aaron Glenn recently said the Jets will use all three of their running backs, talking about Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Drafters and rankers might be saved from themselves if his ECR and average draft position (ADP) slide after Glenn tipped his hand about using a running-back-by-committee arrangement this year. Hall must fall into the 40s before I'd consider pulling the trigger in redraft leagues.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR - ARI) | ECR: 44/WR20
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the second fiddle in Arizona's passing attack. It's not a 1A and 1B situation with Trey McBride. Instead, McBride was Batman; Harrison was Robin last season. McBride had a 26.5% target share versus 21% for Harrison.
In Harrison's defense, he had an eye-popping air yards share. Among 141 wideouts with at least 100 routes last year, Harrison was seventh in air yards share (43.4%). The role wasn't efficient or fantasy-friendly, though.
Among wide receivers who played more than four games last season, Harrison was the WR40 in half-PPR points per game (9.7). He was better in expected half-PPR points per game (13.6). Still, Harrison was only the WR32 in expected half-PPR points per game among wideouts with at least 100 routes last year.
Drafting Harrison as a low-end WR2 requires wish-casting him into a better role or banking on Kyler Murray hitting him more often on his inefficient 14.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Moreover, Harrison's ECR drastically reduces his odds of providing excess value since he'd need to take a huge step forward to break even.
Jared Goff (QB - DET) | ECR: 71/QB8
Jared Goff is included as a player to avoid in large part because he's the highest-ranked true pocket passer. Joe Burrow accumulates most of his value from his arm. Still, he's averaged 11.7 rushing yards per game in his career, eclipsed 200 rushing yards in two of the previous three seasons, scored 12 rushing touchdowns in 69 career starts and scored multiple rushing touchdowns in four out of five years in the NFL. He also plays in a pass-heavy offense with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
I nearly included Baker Mayfield instead of Goff. Tampa Bay's gunslinger has an ECR of 62 as the QB6. However, Mayfield had a career-high 378 rushing yards (22.2 per game) and tied his career-high for rushing touchdowns with three in 2024. I wouldn't count on Mayfield duplicating 22.2 rushing yards per game, but it was an interesting new wrinkle. He also proved he could succeed as a passer without Dave Canales after Liam Coen replaced the former as Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator.
Mayfield thrived under Coen, setting new career-highs for passing touchdowns (41), completion percentage (71.4%), QB Rating (106.8) and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.97) in 2024. As a result, Mayfield is theoretically equipped to handle losing his offensive coordinator to a head-coaching gig for a second consecutive season.
Goff adds nothing with his legs. He's averaged 3.6 rushing yards per game with two rushing touchdowns in 65 games with the Lions. Goff also no longer has offensive coordinator Ben Johnson pushing the right buttons and pulling the correct levers after Johnson took Chicago's head-coaching job. John Morton is Johnson's successor, and his only previous experience as an offensive coordinator was with the Jets in 2017. Gang Green's offense was putrid in 2017, albeit with much less talent than Detroit's roster has this season.
The Lions had a high-octane offense in 2024. They were first in scoring offense (33.2 points per game). Per SumerSports, the Lions were also third in expected points added (EPA) per play.
While guiding Detroit's NFL-leading-scoring offense in 2024, Goff was the QB7 in points per game (19.7) among quarterbacks who played more than one game last season. The Lions were fifth in the NFL in scoring in 2023 (27.1 points per game) and 2022 (26.6 points per game), and Goff wasn't a QB1 in fantasy leagues. Instead, among quarterbacks with more than five games played in each of those years, Goff was the QB14 in points per game (17.1) in 2022 and the QB13 in points per game (17.8) in 2023.
Drafting Goff at his ECR essentially requires him to hit his ceiling outcome to break even. Goff would be a streamer-quality starting quarterback if he regressed to his 2022-2023 level of play. Gamers should keep drafting running backs, wideouts or tight ends in Goff's range and wait to double-up on cheaper quarterbacks, where the opportunity cost at running back, wide receiver and tight end is less.
In leagues with shallow benches where teams roster only one quarterback, the case is even stronger for fading Goff since the streaming pool will be more robust if your dart throw at quarterback flops.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
