As we approach mid-July, fantasy football managers are scrambling to review the latest average draft position (ADP) data from early drafts (such as the Scott Fish Bowl), expert draft boards and beat writer reports from training camps as teams begin to report. This is the time of year when we pretend to be all excited by wide receivers showing up “in the best shape of their life” after they added “significant muscle mass” or learning a “new role as a slot or outside option.” It can be challenging to sift through the 24/7 hype machine that is social media to see what information is relevant and what is simply fluff.
For all the news tidbits, speculation and banter, everyone is still ultimately guessing on how things will shake out. Until players step foot on the field against competition fighting for roster spots, it isn’t easy to gauge the offseason progress (or regression) of athletes. Seeing statistical data finally begin to roll in after the Hall of Fame game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions on July 31st has me giddy with excitement, and I know that I’m not the only one.
At the wideout position, several players disappointed their fantasy managers in 2024, failing to provide any return on investment, given their high price point in drafts. Even though they haven’t set foot on the field during a preseason game yet (and let’s be honest, veterans skip the majority of it regardless), there are a few players I anticipate enjoying a bounce-back campaign in 2025. Trades during the offseason, coaching changes or simply getting in more reps with their quarterback to build rapport will have an impact, and I’m excited to see the results pay off as August approaches.
Here are a few receivers who have caught my eye this month, along with my rationale for their inclusion. All represent a discount in drafts due to recency bias, thanks to a poor showing last year.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Bounce-Back Wide Receivers
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
I’ve been watching football for a long time, and few players have appeared more visibly frustrated and annoyed with their situation than DJ Moore in 2024. Following his breakout 2023 campaign with Chicago, when he finished as the WR6 in fantasy with a phenomenal 96/1,364/8 split, Moore saw his totals come plummeting downward to the tune of 98/966/6 instead.
So, what gives? Moore was seemingly never on the same page as quarterback Caleb Williams whenever his number was called, with passes being constantly thrown over his head or at his feet. This led to him shaking his head on the bench, yelling at teammates or having a permanent scowl on his face like he sucked on a lemon.
The Bears’ porous offensive line is partially to blame for Williams’ scattershot accuracy, affording him little to no time within the pocket before he had defenders breathing down his neck each drop back. Williams also had a propensity to take off scrambling when his first (or second) read was covered, likely due to shellshock from avoiding defenders in the pocket each play (Chicago led the league with a staggering 68 sacks allowed). I have optimism that the Bears’ offensive line issues will improve dramatically following the team’s decision to prioritize a complete overhaul. The team traded for veteran guards Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, signed free agent center Drew Dalman to a three-year deal, and then spent a high second-round selection on Boston College offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo. Their presence will make a world of difference, both allowing time for plays to develop, and keeping Williams on his feet, rather than looking out his ear hole each snap.
Defensive attention should also ease off Moore, after Chicago brought in two electrifying offensive weapons with wideout Luther Burden III from Missouri and tight end Colston Loveland from Michigan. Their presence may lead to a decreased overall total number of targets for Moore, but his yards per carry (YPC) should sharply rise, and the Bears should be able to sustain drives at a much higher pace. The presence of new head coach Ben Johnson is also a massive boon for this offense, and I anticipate that his ingenuity will design plays to take advantage of Moore’s strengths on the field. Currently the WR21 per ADP, Moore is a huge bargain at the moment.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Realistically, I could have included Tyreek Hill‘s name here as well, but Jaylen Waddle was by far the bigger bust in 2024, considering his WR46 finish in just 15 starts. For the second consecutive season, Waddle experienced a dip in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns — I feel that streak comes to an end this year.
Why the optimism? Take your pick.
Suppose one is optimistic that Tua Tagovailoa remains healthy for a full season (and yes, I know that is a significant question mark due to his concussion history). In that case, Waddle instantly becomes a buy-low candidate in drafts. By far the top quarterback option for Miami, when Tagovailoa is under center, the team is significantly more effective at moving the ball downfield, even if head coach Mike McDaniel leans on quick-pass plays to keep him healthy. My colleague Derek Brown pointed out Tagovailoa’s 5.9 average depth of target (aDOT) in 2024 — even if that remains in place, McDaniel has shown the ability to create screen plays and quick-outs for wide receivers that will utilize Waddle’s ability to make defenders miss in space.
Suppose one were to point out that Hill appeared a step slower last season, and that Father Time is never kind to wideouts who rely on pure speed as their best attribute. Or the fact that he enters this year at 31, and is coming off of wrist surgery. Or that Waddle is five years younger, and enters 2025 healthy.
Suppose one also mentioned the fact that target-hog Jonnu Smith has been removed from the equation, and his absence means that well over 100 targets need to be distributed elsewhere? That even after the team signed Darren Waller from the Giants, his presence scares us not in the slightest? He hasn’t been relevant since 2020, the last season in which he caught more than 55 receptions.
We could keep going. Honestly, though, take your pick on any or all of these factors having a significant impact on Waddle’s final numbers for 2025. His current ADP at WR32 is head-scratching, and surely we can’t be the only ones who see the potential for a massive return on investment.
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)
DK Metcalf finished 2024 with 191.2 fantasy points, marking the first time since his rookie season in 2019 that he failed to break the 200-point barrier. Despite finishing with identical reception totals from the previous year and only a slight reduction in targets, a drop in touchdown receptions, coupled with being pushed down the pecking order in favor of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Seattle, were the main culprits for his disappointing finish.
Metcalf sought greener pastures, seeing that the writing was on the wall for him to no longer be the alpha option with the Seahawks, following Smith-Njigba’s breakout campaign. Seattle, willing to discard his large contract and feisty personality, was more than happy to oblige with the request. In early March, Metcalf was traded to Pittsburgh for a second-round pick, where he will pair up with Aaron Rodgers, in the twilight of his stellar career.
Metcalf’s fantasy prospects took another step in a positive direction after the Steelers opted to trade George Pickens to Dallas at the beginning of May, paving the way for Metcalf to be Rodgers’ undisputed primary target at wideout in the passing game, with little proven talent opposing him. Although Pittsburgh decided to make one more splash move by trading for tight end Jonnu Smith in late June, Metcalf will remain the primary outside threat and big-play option for the Steelers to utilize in the passing game.
Metcalf’s detractors will point out that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith relies heavily upon a run-first, run-often approach, but reports have already surfaced that the team wouldn’t bring in talent like Rodgers, Metcalf and Smith “just to run a wishbone offense” (quote courtesy of The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo). Adjustments will be made to create a more dynamic and less vanilla approach than in prior seasons. More targets, a better situation at quarterback and less competition have me feeling very bullish on Metcalf’s outlook for 2025.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
This time last year, draft rooms were abuzz with how high managers were on Marvin Harrison Jr., how he fell into the perfect situation in Arizona where he could shine alongside a healthy Kyler Murray and how even as a rookie, he was destined to finish as a can’t-miss top-10 option at the position. So what happened?
Early in the season, Harrison was primarily asked to run “go” routes, and the team puzzlingly seemed reluctant to stray from a strict downfield-only formula, despite his success all over the field at Ohio State in college. Though he made the occasional splash play, the predictability became difficult to overcome. Following Arizona’s bye in Week 11, head coach Jonathan Gannon seemed to be more comfortable allowing Harrison to operate all over the field, and he was able to finish the season on a slightly higher note, ultimately ending as the WR30 with a 62/885/8 split.
Offseason reports on Harrison have highlighted two areas of focus: His desire to add more muscle mass to improve in contested catch passes and shedding defenders who press him at the line of scrimmage, along with working on his chemistry and connection with Murray. Any improvements in the mind-meld between the two players would do wonders, given Harrison’s elite athletic traits and pedigree.
No longer costing fantasy managers a late-first or early-second round selection, Harrison is typically falling toward the mid-rounds instead, as an upside WR2. With a full season under his belt of acclimating to life in the NFL and a firmer grasp on the playbook, I anticipate managers will see Harrison take off in the early weeks. Arizona’s solid defense will continually hand the ball over to Murray and Co., and the ultra-competitive NFC West divisional games generally lead to shootouts. I’m bullish on Harrison being a “post-hype sleeper” for WR1 relevance.
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