Not every early-round pick lives up to the hype. In fact, some of the biggest names in fantasy football end up being major disappointments based on where they’re drafted. To help you avoid costly mistakes in your 2025 fantasy football drafts, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros to spotlight the worst value picks by current ADP. Whether it’s due to injury risk, team situation, or inflated expectations, these players carry more downside than their draft position suggests. Before you’re on the clock, make sure you know which names to think twice about.
Worst Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Running Backs
Who is the worst value pick at RB based on his current ADP and why?
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): RB3, ADP 6
“Most people will hate this, but the answer is Jahmyr Gibbs. I understand his explosive playmaking ability, but people constantly want to write David Montgomery off, even though the Detroit Lions haven’t. Will the split lean towards Gibbs? Absolutely. However, Montgomery will still vulture away touchdowns, and as the second overall running back on FantasyPros, the price is too high for me.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF): RB4, ADP 11
“I see we’re back to believing that Christian McCaffrey will stay perfectly healthy in 2025 and return RB4 value as the 11th pick off the board. How? So many players have their injury risk baked into their ADP, but somehow, McCaffrey skirts that to be a first-round pick? Really? We did this last year when he was ranked No. 1 and rewarded fantasy managers with 40.3 TOTAL fantasy points. If he stays healthy for the entire season, then sure, he might return Round 1 value, but it would be much more palatable to take that risk if you could get him one or two rounds later. I want nothing to do with him as my first pick off the board.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
“Pretty simple here, Christian McCaffrey will either win or lose fantasy leagues come 2025. His upside is well documented, a rushing and receiving monster that will be the focal point of the 49ers’ offense. His downside is also well established, with an Achilles injury playing the part of a ticking time bomb. While the reward could outweigh the risk with CMC, there is no denying he is a league winner if healthy, the cost is simply too high as the RB4 at the end of the first round of drafts.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA): RB7, ADP 15
“RB is tough this year because it seems like every option is priced pretty close for me. I’ve been hammering De’Von Achane as overvalued, and even though he’s down at RB8 now, I still feel like that’s a little high. A lot of this feeling is based on how wide a range of outcomes the Dolphins have for their 2025 season. Also, I feel more comfortable taking those guys behind him more than Achane himself. Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, and Chase Brown are all going after Achane right now, and I’d much rather roster any of them right now.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): RB8, ADP 20
“Jonathan Taylor’s upside is great, RB1 overall upside. The downside is that he misses a ton of time. The same could be said about James Conner, who is being drafted at pick 52. Drafting Jonathan Taylor in the top 20 picks is too risky when you look at the players being drafted right behind him like Trey McBride, Kyren Williams, Ladd McConkey, and the RB values 2-3 rounds later.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): RB12, ADP 33
“I’m out on Kyren Williams at an RB11 price tag. Last year, Williams pulled off his best yesteryear Rachaad White or Leonard Fournette impression. A volume gobbling inefficient back who turned in an RB1 season (RB10). Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. With all that said, Williams was one of the most inefficient per-touch backs in the NFL. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams could retain his stranglehold on the volume again in a contract year, but it’s also possible that Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter could eat into his workload. If Corum or Hunter cut into his touches, Williams will struggle to live up to his RB1 billing as he doesn’t have the passing game usage to help him out (LAR tied for last in the NFL in targets to the RB position).”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“History says that RBs who carry a massive load for 1-2 seasons aren’t great the following season. The leaders in touches in 2023: CMC, Travis Etienne, and Rachaad White. All 2024 busts with the latter two also being inefficient rushers. Insert Rams RB1 Kyren Williams, who ranked near the bottom in explosive run rate, YAC/att, missed tackles forced in 2024, while accumulating nearly 400 touches. The Rams RB1 has been heavily dependent on sheer volume and TDs…but that could change in 2025. Los Angeles drafted another rookie running back in the 4th round this season (Jarquez Hunter) and signed red-zone monster Davante Adams in free agency. Williams could deliver if everything stays the same as last season (although leaning toward that not being the case), but even so, I think that he’s just a small win (RB7/8 finish akin to 2024) compared to his RB12 ADP. Too much risk for an RB coming off 663 combined touches since the start of 2023, when the data is clear, these players faceplant that next season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
James Cook (RB – BUF): RB14, ADP 43
“Fantasy players should avoid drafting James Cook anywhere near his RB14 ADP. Last year, he finished as the RB8, averaging 15.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Georgia star had 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores in 2024, leading the league in rushing touchdowns. By comparison, Cook had four rushing touchdowns and five receiving scores over his first two years in the NFL. Unfortunately, he is a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate. Furthermore, the star running back and the Bills are in the middle of messy contract talks, which could lead to a training camp holdout. Kenneth Walker III and Alvin Kamara have a later ADP than Cook. Yet, I would draft both well before the former Georgia star.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA): RB15, ADP 42
“The Sam Darnold I know and love finally showed up last year and saw ghosts in the playoffs, when the Vikings got smoked by the Rams in Arizona, even with a partisan Vikings crowd cheering them on. Seattle coughed up $100 million for Darnold, which is a huge gamble considering how bad he looked in the playoffs. Without the stout Vikings’ defense, offensive line, and weather-controlled climate to support him, I think Darnold will find the going to be a lot tougher in Seattle. That’s bad news for the Seahawks’ offense, where young “Sky” Walker needs a lot of TDs to justify his current, lofty ADP at RB 15. And before you go….know this…….Kenneth, I am your father. No, not really. I can’t back that up, haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU): RB19, ADP 55
“The RB market is remarkably reasonable this year. It’s hard to find values so good or bad that they stand out. I suppose Joe Mixon looks a bit overpriced at RB19, No. 55 overall. The Texans’ offensive line was among the worst in the league last year, and offseason repairs have been inadequate patch-ups. (Houston actually traded away its best offensive lineman, Laremy Tunsil.) Mixon, who turns 29 late this month, is on the wrong side of the RB age curve. And the Texans have added more competition at RB by signing Nick Chubb and drafting Woody Marks.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
TreVeon Henderson (RB – NE): RB21, ADP 59
“The RB ADP is pretty good, but the RB who is probably too high is Patriots rookie TreVeon Henderson. The general assumption with Henderson seems to be that the Patriots are so bad that, as pass-catching back (presumed), he’ll be peppered with targets late in games. Based on that quality defense and an ascending offense, don’t be shocked if the Patriots are better than assumed and starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson is the RB who’s more valuable on the year. Henderson isn’t the between-the-tackles grinder, and if he’s just in the “James White” (pass-catching RB) role, is he really worth it in Round 5?”
– Justin Frye (Pro Football Network)
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn