The preparation for your perfect 2025 fantasy football draft begins now.
Have a battle plan when you show up for your in-person draft or fire up the laptop for your online draft. But don’t make it a rigid plan.
Fantasy drafts are unpredictable. Average draft position goes out the window. Your competitors will make unexpected picks. You’ll occasionally get snaked on a player you wanted.
Be flexible. Be nimble. Be prepared.
And get those reps in before draft season arrives! Test your draft strategies by mock-drafting with the FantasyPros Draft Simulator.
Here’s a look at Andrew Erickson’s approach to the first round of fantasy football drafts.
- Fitz’s Perfect Draft Strategy
- DBro’s Perfect Draft Strategy
- Erickson’s Perfect Draft Strategy
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Perfect Fantasy Football Draft: Strategy, Advice & Targets
Erickson’s Approach to Round 1
Approach to Round 1
Last season, I faded Christian McCaffrey and ranked Ja’Marr Chase at WR1.
I know what you’re thinking. Erickson, why are you still writing fantasy football articles and not sitting pretty, sipping Mai Tais on your private island from all your winnings? Well, informed reader, I got spooked by the Chase contract holdout late into draft season. As a result, I moved Breece Hall to RB1 and first overall… Yikes.
I won’t make the mistake again.
I’ve toyed with the idea of Bijan Robinson (RB1) over Ja’Marr Chase (I just recalled that the Falcons did throw out “Bijan Robinson in the Christian McCaffrey role” last offseason), but I just don’t feel the need to do it. Even with the amount of parity atop the standings every year in fantasy football, Chase is “chasing” Antonio Brown (for the right reasons) as he attempts to be the first back-to-back WR1 fantasy finisher since 2015. And with Joe Burrow as his quarterback, he seems as primed as ever to repeat.
After Chase, it’s Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson to round out my top-five overall players.
That is correct. No Saquon Barkley. For more on that, be sure to read my “players to avoid” piece.
Also, I’m much lower on Amon-Ra St. Brown as a first-round pick. But besides those two players, I’ve got no qualms about the rest of the first round crop. It’s extremely deep this year, which is why I often prefer picking toward the end.
A common theme with fantasy football positional tiers is to stay out of the middle, and I think you can make the same application here within round one.
I love the idea of going McCaffrey and then the best available wide receiver in round two (oftentimes Drake London). The same approach works with a top-three selection with either Robinson or Gibbs.
I’m not even opposed to double-tapping receivers at the round one/round two turn, although I probably would only do so in full PPR formats.
All things considered, I do prefer going with a running back more than a wide receiver in round one. And that’s because it’s very likely I’ll go the wide receiver route in the second round.
A first-round back sets you up greatly for a Hero RB build, which is the strategy I typically abide by before entering any draft.
You’ve got one spot dialed in, and the other spot can be filled by the rotating carousel of remaining running backs on your roster.
I believe the golden standard approach of selecting a running back with your first- or second-round pick has not changed. Yes, I understand how hip it is to draft wide receivers and go Zero RB in recent years.
But running backs who see work as both receivers/rushers score the most points. Running backs are still the drivers behind fantasy-winning teams, so get your talented studs early because the backs who score the most points are drafted accordingly, based on average draft position (ADP) data. The longer you wait, the odds of landing a true Hero RB diminish.
And there’s no better time to get back in on running backs. We have a strong crop of diverse, hungry and young running backs in the player pool.
I bet last season that we would return to the glory days when the top running backs would reign supreme as they had done the two previous seasons. It wasn’t exactly how I thought it would play out, but backs were more productive (and healthy). It was a bit of an outlier season by health standards.
But even so, draft running backs in the early rounds that you think can be league-winners and true difference-makers. You’re not looking for floor or value this early on. Shoot for the moon or punt running back down the road. You’d be surprised how easy it is to fill your fantasy RB2 slot.
Solidifying a top back early also helps you avoid reaching for running backs in the dreaded RB Dead Zone (RB2 range), where your primary focus should be drafting wide receivers poised for significant leaps in 2025 and/or elite quarterbacks/tight ends
There’s a long tier of running backs drafted after the top options who can be true Hero RBs, where you are much better off just waiting, with such a gradual decline in projection. It’s important to identify backs that can stand out from the crowd. If you are going to take a running back early, you can’t have any reservations about their upside. If you do, you are better off waiting on running backs with similar median projections at much better prices.
Especially considering wide receivers in full PPR can score a lot of points. And the top of the position looks primed to stake its claim — I will divulge more later.
From 2018 to 2020, in PPR scoring, wide receivers had the highest percentage of top-12 finishes (55%). In 2021, seven of the top 12 overall finishers (58%) were receivers, with six finishing in the top eight. That was true in both PPR and half-PPR. However, the trend did not continue in 2022. Just six wideouts finished inside the top 12, with five backs and one tight end (Travis Kelce). Only four inside the top eight, and an even split between receivers/backs inside the top six. In half-PPR, five running backs finished inside the top eight overall, with just three wideouts.
In 2023, half-PPR scoring was evenly split between the top 12 finishers. For three straight seasons, fewer receivers have finished inside the top 12. Four running backs finished inside the top seven compared to three receivers. In the last two seasons, only three wideouts have finished inside the top eight of overall scoring. Current fantasy football ADP has five wide receivers drafted inside the top eight, compared to three running backs.
In 2024, three wide receivers finished inside the top 12 in half-PPR (four in full PPR). The veteran running back renaissance smoked the wideouts. Now, for four straight seasons, fewer wideouts have finished inside the top 12. Last year, it was 8-4 overall. Inside the top seven, it was 5-2. In the last three seasons, only five wide receivers have finished inside the top eight of overall scoring.
Current best ball ADP has four wideouts drafted inside the top eight, with the other four being running backs.
Some wide receivers are being drafted early who will be outscored by running backs selected after them. Again, to be clear, it’s less likely in PPR than in half-PPR.
But given how strong the WR1 tier is in drafts in the first two rounds this year, you’ve got to come away with at least one. Wide receivers should be healthier than they were last season, whereas running backs are more likely to get hit by the injury bug after their “health luck” in 2024.
This sets the stage for Hero RB to be the strategy to follow in 2025: One stud running back early, a plethora of receivers in the middle rounds, an elite quarterback and/or tight, followed by shot after shot on this amazingly talented rookie running back class that could be the best we’ve seen since 2017.
Check out Erickson’s complete Perfect Fantasy Football Draft Strategy