When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your league mates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average.
A common theme with “bust” candidates is when players become overvalued based on bulletproof roles/situations that turn out not to be what they thought they would be.
Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players below. And you can check out which experts are higher or lower than our expert consensus rankings using our Fantasy Football Rankings Comparison Tools.
Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff checks off all the boxes of a quarterback you DO NOT DRAFT in 2025.
The Lions QB finished 2024 as the QB7 in points per game (19.4) and QB6 overall (third in passing yards per game).
But Goff hit his stride as injuries derailed the Lions’ defense. From Week 11 onward, Goff averaged north of 25 points per game. Weeks 1-10 with a healthier defense? Fewer than 16.5 points per game.
That’s just one red flag the Detroit QB has to face in 2025. The loss of OC Ben Johnson figures to be a challenge. Goff was just the QB18 in expected fantasy points per game, with virtually zero rushing to supplement his passing production. Among the top-8 finishers last season, Goff posted the highest bust rate at 31%.
And although many will point to the Lions’ suffering a ton of defensive injuries last season, their offense was one of the healthiest in the NFL (second healthiest according to FTN). That type of injury luck on one side of the ball doesn’t carry over from year to year. Odds are that their defense will be much healthier than their offense in 2025; not exactly a recipe for fantasy success.
Goff’s 6.9 TD% was the highest of his career in 2024. This is a number that will typically regress. Goff also posted the highest completion rate on third downs among all QBs, a metric that tends not to be very sticky.
And if I haven’t convinced you yet, just look at Goff’s median 2025 projection. QB21 overall. QB23 in Mike Clay’s projections. He’s vastly overvalued as a top-12 fantasy QB.
Add in one of the NFL’s toughest schedules and six outdoor games (against teams that all had winning records last season), and a major statistical drop is likely for the Lions’ one-dimensional pocket passing QB.
Fantasy managers are chasing last year’s points and overvaluing a non-elite rushing QB instead of forecasting next year’s obvious problems.
Running Backs
The consensus RB2 is Saquon Barkley after arguably the greatest season we have ever seen from the position. He went over 2,000 rushing yards as the only skill player to average more than 20 points per game in half-PPR. The Eagles’ rusher led the NFL in touches with nearly 500 (492) when including his workload in the postseason…running effectively behind the league’s best OL.
But as was the case with Christian McCaffrey in 2023 and many RBs before him, leading the NFL in touches by such a vast margin is essentially the kiss of death for RBs the following year. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.
The last 12 RBs with 400-plus touches the following season: RB71, RB53, 2 DNPs, RB17, RB6, RB17, and RB2. The only RB to return to glory after seeing 400+ touches was 24-year-old LaDainian Tomlinson.
There’s no better time now than to sell high on Barkley, considering his age (28) and injury history.
RBs aged 27+ who led the NFL in touches: 5 times and zero top-5 finishes the following year.
It feels like Groundhog Day all over again – another offseason, another round of analysts fading Kyren Williams. But this year, the concerns are more justified, in the last year of William’s rookie contract (with the two sides still negotiating). Despite a monster workload in 2024 (nearly 400 touches, 87% snap share, both second to only Saquon Barkley), Williams was wildly inefficient – ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate, missed tackles, and YAC per attempt (akin to Najee Harris‘ numbers in 2024 in regards to yards per carry, rush yards over expected, total rush EPA etc.) with an alarming number of fumbles to boot. Williams finished with the 5th-highest carry per fumble rate (63.2).
The Rams spent legit draft capital on Blake Corum in 2023 (who Sean McVay repeatedly calls a stud) and Jarquez Hunter in 2024 (who the Rams traded up for) while publicly embracing the NFL trends of a more committee-driven backfield approach this offseason. McVay was impressed by Liam Coen’s deployment of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in 2024, and I can’t help but think Williams might end up being this year’s White. After all, those pumping up White late year cited his volume from the year before without acknowledging his inefficiency as a rusher enough (which I was also very much guilty of).
And to carry over the touch analysis from last season…the 2023 regular season touch leaders were all BUSTs in 2024: Christian McCaffrey – 339, Rachaad White – 336, and Travis Etienne – 325. Woof.
Williams could still deliver RB1 numbers on sheer volume alone, but if that volume even slightly dips, it will be tough for him to live up to his ADP. Williams is RB7 to RB11 in the projections, which seems like it would be terrifying to witness as a Williams fader.
But without a notable pass-catching role (the Rams ranked 32nd in targets to RBs in 2024), this is the best-case scenario for Williams. He needs to gobble all the volume yet again while also scoring double-digit rushing TDs. Seems less likely than ever before for him to go on an insane rushing TD streak given the addition of red-zone hog WR Davante Adams.
The Rams RB has yet to crest the top-5 in either of the last two seasons.
I think that Williams could end up being a small win player at his ADP of RB12. But I just don’t see the case where he completely buries you versus the flip side. If he does lose out on work to the other RBs and lacks the efficiency/upside in the passing game to make up the difference.
D’Andre Swift fits the classic “dead zone RB” mold – a projected volume play with an RB2 ceiling.
He finished as the RB23 in points per game last year (RB19 overall), but it was an empty workload propped up by opportunity, not efficiency. From Week 9 on, he was the RB32 in points per game. Swift ranked dead last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt on the season (-0.7).
He rushed for 60-plus yards just three times in his last 10 games played.
He now reunites with Bears HC Ben Johnson – the same coach who phased him out in Detroit back in 2022. Despite no clear threat to his touches, Swift’s inefficiency last season (career low in yards per carry and PFF’s 6th-lowest graded RB) makes him a low-ceiling RB2 fantasy managers should be cautious of over-drafting in 2025.
His career finishes are as follows in half-PPR: RB18, RB19, RB22, RB23, RB19. Do you really want to draft a mid-range RB2 ceiling player as the fantasy RB25 (and rising)? Again, a small win that might not be worth the risk if the bottom falls out completely.
Because I don’t think that Swift rules this backfield as a true bell cow. Johnson’s tenure in Detroit should tell us that much, given how he operated with a one-two punch between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
I also expect the Swift price to CLIMB given the lack of additions in the backfield.
All that’s behind him in Chicago’s backfield is third-year RB Roschon Johnson and 7th-rounder Kyle Monangai out of Rutgers. It should be easy for Swift to be the RB1 in the Bears’ backfield. But watch out for the rookie in this backfield. Monangai has already caught the attention of his new HC, impressing him at minicamp with his attention to detail and by picking things up quickly.
Also, it wouldn’t be the first time a 7th-round RB from Rutgers took over a backfield on a team with Eric Bienemy on the coaching staff. Yes, Bienemy is the Bears’ new RB coach…
Tyrone Tracy took over the Giants’ starting role in Week 5 but faltered late, finishing RB27 from Weeks 12-18 and grading as PFF’s 4th-worst rusher over that span. He failed to hit over 60 rushing yards in his final seven games, while his PPG fell
He split inside the 5-yard line carries with Devin Singletary and ran into ball security issues. Tracy tied for the 3rd-most fumbles among RBs (5 total) despite only 230 touches – a major red flag that opens the door for fourth-rounder rookie Cam Skattebo.
Skattebo was drafted at the start of Day 3 with strong receiving metrics (42 rec yds/game, 40% dominator rating) and profiles as the physical, all-purpose back that Tracy is not. Tracy’s lightning projects more like a compliment to Skattebo’s thunder.
That concerns me, given the Giants’ lackluster offense likely won’t be able to support a RB timeshare. And Skattebo is one Tracy fumble away from carving out a larger role in this backfield. And that’s not even considering Devin Singletary, who Brian Daboll has often gone back to because of the trust he has in the veteran.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown delivered another elite season in 2024, finishing as the WR3 in both total and per-game scoring while leading the NFL in red-zone receptions. However, he did outperform his expected fantasy output (14.6 expected points per game, WR18), and his target share dipped from 27% to 23% over the final seven games as Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta gained steam. With Ben Johnson gone and increased competition for targets after Jamo’s breakout, there’s reason to be cautious about repeating a top-5 finish, especially with the Sun God coming off clean-up knee surgery this offseason.
St. Brown is being drafted inside the 1st round, despite the 2025 projections placing him closer to 15th among RBs/WRs.
Tyreek Hill’s 2024 season was a far cry from his usual explosive standards, finishing as the WR33 in points per game (10.5) – a massive disappointment for fantasy managers who spent early-round draft capital on him. While much of the blame can be pinned on Tua Tagovailoa‘s injury, Hill still underwhelmed even when his quarterback was healthy. In the 11 games with Tagovailoa under center, Hill surpassed 100 receiving yards just twice and averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game, only good enough for WR18 during that span. He was battling a wrist injury from Week 1 onward, which may have impacted his efficiency, but the steep drop in performance is still concerning. His yards per route run plummeted to just 1.75 – less than half of his 2023 mark – and he posted the worst YAC/catch of his career (3.5), signaling a potentially sharp decline.
Hill also turned 31 this offseason, and the dreaded age cliff for speed-dependent wide receivers may be arriving. His outburst at the end of the 2024 season – removing himself from the game and demanding to get out of Miami – adds another layer of uncertainty regarding his role and long-term future with the Dolphins. There are so many red flags: declining efficiency, age, durability concerns regarding the rehab from the wrist injury, and potential chemistry issues with the team that make him a high-risk, low-confidence fantasy pick in 2025 drafts, especially if his ADP remains in the early rounds.
Terry McLaurin had a career year in 2024 with 82 catches for nearly 1,110 yards and 13 TDs (2nd among all WRs and 16 TDs including the postseason), finishing the 2024 season as the WR6 overall and WR15 in points per game. According to FantasyPros’ boom or bust report, McLaurin finished as a top 24 weekly option in 69% of his games, tied for the 3rd-highest among all WRs. TMC took off with Jayden Daniels as his QB, and the duo will be looking to repeat their efforts in their second season together in 2025.
However, McLaurin commanded just a 21% target share in 2024 (37th) while finishing with the 12th-highest air yards share (38%). The Commanders’ wideout ranked 23rd in expected fantasy points per game because he performed well above expectations for scoring TDs (nearly double per PFF). Looking ahead to 2025, the only true threat to the target competition for McLaurin is Deebo Samuel (who has struggled to stay healthy), 90-year-old Zach Ertz, and questionable WR depth pieces. That being said, chasing McLaurin’s TDs from last season might make him overvalued in 2025 fantasy football drafts. TMC caught 16 TDs combined through his first four seasons played in the NFL.
Keep in mind that he had no target competition last season and still ranked outside the top-30 WRs in targets per game.
Before Noah Brown‘s injury (7-game stretch from Weeks 6-12), Brown and Zach Ertz led the Commanders in targets, suggesting McLaurin isn’t an elite target earner in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, and will need to repeat top-end efficiency to pay off his increased ADP in 2025. Considering a lot of his efficiency metrics – yards per route run, average depth of target – were not too far off from his career numbers, fading McLaurin is just a bet on his TD production coming back down to Earth. McLaurin’s 25% bust rate tied for the highest among any WRs inside the top-15 last season (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jerry Jeudy). Not to mention, McLaurin is also looking for a new contract entering the final year of his deal. A potential holdout could further complicate selecting him in fantasy drafts.
DJ Moore wrapped up a strange 2024 campaign as the WR16 in total points but just WR32 in points per game (11.1). On the surface, his 98 receptions for 966 yards and 6 touchdowns look fine, especially within the confines of a dysfunctional Bears offense. Still, he posted a career-low 1.44 yards per route run and a 25% bust rate, tied for the third-highest among top-24 wide receivers. That’s especially troubling considering Moore was supposed to be the clear alpha in a broken Bears passing game. While Moore did show signs of life after Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties – topping 5.5 receptions in every game down the stretch – his role shifted to a low aDOT (5.3). He saw plenty of volume (27% target share), but the high-value looks were going elsewhere.
Rookie Rome Odunze dominated air yards and end-zone opportunities, while current street free agent Keenan Allen (before his Week 18 absence) was quietly leading the team in targets since Week 11. Looking ahead to 2025, Moore’s situation has changed yet again. Allen is gone, but the Bears added two high-upside rookies with first and second-round draft capital: WR Luther Burden and TE Colston Loveland. Both are dynamic after the catch and will challenge Moore for volume in a Ben Johnson-led offense that should be significantly more efficient with Caleb Williams entering Year 2. That said, Moore’s career production profile doesn’t scream alpha WR1. Outside of his WR6 finish in 2023 (a year heavily influenced by a few monster games), Moore has never finished inside the top-15 WRs across his career. He’s a classic boom-or-bust weekly WR2 – capable of game-breaking performances but just as likely to disappear depending on game script and usage. Moore should be drafted as a volatile WR2/WR3 with spike-week appeal, but expectations should be tempered. Moore is fine at ADP, especially if he slips. But there may be better value elsewhere in the Bears’ passing game, particularly if Rome Odunze continues to command high-value touches or Burden emerges as a YAC weapon in the slot.
Moore’s ceiling remains intact, but his path to consistency looks as murky as ever.
Rashee Rice enters 2025 as one of the biggest wildcards in fantasy football. After suffering LCL/hamstring injuries that ended his 2024 season early, his Week 1 status remains uncertain – but a return within the first few weeks is realistic based on a similar ACL injury timetable. The looming legal situation adds another layer of risk, though early projections suggest a minimal suspension (potentially just three games) that will probably not occur until 2026. When on the field, Rice was electric: through the first month of 2024, he ranked third in target share (32%) and averaged nearly 100 yards and 17.6 fantasy points per game (second only to Ja’Marr Chase).
Over his last 18 games played, dating back to the middle of his rookie season, Rice has averaged 13.0 PPG – WR16 territory. If healthy and active in Week 1, Rice could be a massive value pick tied to Patrick Mahomes in an offense still searching for reliable wideouts.
But if he is not 100% back from the injury, he may disappoint fantasy managers in a big way. Especially considering there’s more WR competition between Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown compared to the start of last season.
I am starting to get very concerned about Rice delivering on his rising best ball ADP, which is entering the back-end of WR1 territory on some platforms. It’s very aggressive based on his 3.5-sample size with WR1 fantasy production. I’ve done work on identifying the archetype of “busts” at WR, and typically they all follow similar patterns.
They are the highest-drafted WRs without true season-long breakouts on their resumes. It’s paying a premium for a potential. And when it is easy to write the narrative that KC spreads the ball more with a healthier WR room to not put all the pressure on their third-year WR coming off a season-ending injury, it’s not hard to see Rice underwhelming against lofty expectations.
Therefore I feel the need to express some reservations with Rice and a rising draft cost, given that players always report to “look great” or ahead of schedule from season-ending injuries. Being available Week 1 and being 100% back in pre-injury form aren’t the same.
Chris Olave enters 2025 with more red flags than breakout buzz. Now 25, he’s coming off an injury-riddled 2024 season in which he played just six full games and averaged a disappointing 10 fantasy points per game (WR40). While still efficient on a per-route basis (2.15 YPRR), Olave was out-targeted and out-produced by Rashid Shaheed, who doubled him in air yards and posted more top-12 weekly finishes.
Shaheed doubled Olave’s air yards. 25% target share to 20% target share. 338 receiving yards to 275 receiving yards. Over the last 24 games he has played alongside Chris Olave, Shaheed has averaged 56.5 receiving yards per game compared to Olave’s 64. Shaheed also had more top-12 finishes (4) than Olave (3) since 2023.
Olave has struggled to deliver high-end fantasy weeks throughout his career (fewer than two top-12 finishes per season, three years into the league) and now faces even murkier outlooks with shaky QB play likely incoming in New Orleans. Given that Olave doesn’t offer much after the catch he is hardly worth the headache. Olave has five documented concussions dating back to Ohio State as well.
Terry McLaurin is still not attending the Commanders’ OTAs in the pursuit of a new contract. With him not in attendance and threatening a holdout, we could see Deebo Samuel step in as the de facto No. 1 WR with some strong early-season production. We have seen recently that players who have missed offseason time due to contract disputes have not produced up to expectations, besides, of course, Ja’Marr Chase.
If McLaurin’s contract dispute lingers into the summer, Deebo’s ADP might rise. And even though I spoke about Samuel being a potential bust in a recent podcast, I can admit that his price is more palatable than McLaurin’s as a fantasy WR4, especially with him slated for some decent early-season opportunities while he’s at his healthiest. That being said, you need to be careful with Samuel if his ADP continues to climb. Because he also has glaring red flags in his profile.
Samuel averaged just 8.5 PPG and finished outside the top-40 WRs in 2024, even with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined and minimal target competition. Just one game over 22 receiving yards in his final 7 outings; Jauan Jennings overtook him as the top target in the 49ers offense.
In his defense, the RB/WR hybrid battled through injuries and pneumonia, but the production cratered despite a strong opportunity. In 15 games, he surpassed his weekly projection thrice (20%). Samuel was expected to be cut from the 49ers, but they instead traded him to the Commanders for a fifth-round pick, followed by a one-year reworked contract. His injury history is well-documented, and it’s clear that the 29-year-old is way past his peak form. There’s only so much fantasy juice to squeeze for an aging player potentially pigeon-holed into a surplus of screen passes out of the backfield.
Tight Ends
Famously or infamously “”my guy”” among TEs in 2024, Andrews was anything but fun to roster. The start was an outright disaster. Isaiah Likely was breaking out, and Andrews was an afterthought. Whether it was injury-related or something else, Andrews was not a featured piece in the Ravens offense. But after Week 4, the TDs and production started to follow. The Baltimore tight end was the fantasy TE5 from Week 5 onward, finishing the season as the fantasy TE5. Although his TE10 status in points per game (9.1) and expected fantasy points as TE21 suggest he was much closer to a low-end fantasy TE1 than an actual top-5 finisher. Andrews was very TD-dependent, scoring as many times (11) as his previous two seasons combined. There are a lot of red flags for the 29-year-old entering the final year of his contract, with Likely breathing down his neck for targets in the TE room. Andrews and Likely are both entering the final years of their contracts, but all the extension smoke has been around Likely, who his HC claimed he wants to be an “All-Pro.”
When Ravens OC Todd Monken was talking about the all the Ravens skill players this offseason, he just highlighted Andrews’ TDs and nothing more. I’m not paying TE6-TE8 price tags for a TD-dependent player at the position. If his scoring regresses, he’s a low-end TE1 at best – not a top-6 guy.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
