Thankfully, the 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the first part of an eight-part series, I identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC East.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC East
Fantasy Football ADP Values
De’Von Achane (MIA): ADP 13.8 | RB7
Achane is one of the more undervalued running backs in the ADP. Last season, he was the RB5, averaging 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Achane was a fantasy superstar despite seeing a 42.3% decrease in yards per rushing attempt (4.5 vs. 7.8) and playing nearly half the year without Tua Tagovailoa. Yet, he is getting drafted after Christian McCaffrey (RB4) and Derrick Henry (RB6) despite the veterans coming with age and injury concerns.
More importantly, Achane became a pass-catching star last season despite Jonnu Smith having a career year. Thankfully, the veteran tight end is no longer on the team. After averaging 2.5 receptions on 3.4 targets per game as a rookie, Achane averaged 4.6 receptions on 5.1 targets in 2024. He led all running backs in receptions (78), receiving yards (592), and touchdowns (six). More importantly, Achane was the best running back in fantasy football when Tagovailoa was on the field.
|
De’Von Achane’s Production |
With Tua Tagovailoa (11 Games) |
Without Tua Tagovailoa (6 Games) |
|
Fantasy Points Per Game |
22.6 |
8.6 |
|
17-Game Pace Finish |
RB1 (383.4 Total Points) |
RB32 (146.8 Total Points) |
|
Target Share |
17.4% |
7.3% |
|
Target Per Route Run Rate* |
29% |
12% |
|
Fantasy Points Per Route Run* |
0.98 |
0.48 |
|
Fantasy Points Per Touch |
1.18 |
0.73 |
* via Fantasy Points Data
Unfortunately, Achane’s production took a significant hit when Tagovailoa missed time with injuries. However, the veteran quarterback played in every game in 2023. Furthermore, Miami improved their backup quarterback options by signing Zach Wilson and drafting Quinn Ewers. While the Dolphins added Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon II to their backfield this offseason, Achane will have a featured role again in 2025. He has overall RB1 upside this season if Tagovailoa stays healthy.
Justin Fields (NYJ): ADP 97.8 | QB10
While he isn’t considered an elite NFL passer, Fields is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in fantasy football because of his rushing abilities. The former Ohio State star was the QB6 over the first six weeks of last year as the starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game despite totaling only five passing touchdowns. Yet, Fields was a borderline must-start option for fantasy players because of his legs.
The veteran quarterback averaged 9.2 rushing attempts for 38.5 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, and 8.9 fantasy points per game on the ground during his six starts last season. Furthermore, Fields’ 0.59 fantasy points per dropback ranked fifth among 31 quarterbacks with at least 90 dropbacks during those six weeks (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, he was the QB9 on a points-per-game basis (17.7) in 2023, his last year as an unquestioned starting quarterback.
Unfortunately, the Jets lack any significant and reliable weapons in the passing game besides Garrett Wilson. However, they have an up-and-coming offensive line. Therefore, expect the team to lean on the run game and take advantage of Fields’ athleticism. The former Ohio State star had 1,143 rushing yards in 2022, the second-most in a season by a quarterback in NFL history. Don’t be surprised if he has over 1,000 rushing yards again this year.
Fantasy Football Bust Candidates
Tyreek Hill (MIA): ADP 27.2 | WR12
Fantasy players know that wide receivers’ outlook takes a significant hit once they are on the wrong side of 30. Hill turned 31 earlier this offseason after finishing last year as the WR18, averaging 12.8 PPR fantasy points per game. His 12.8 fantasy points per game average was 45.5% lower than his average from 2023 and the lowest mark of his career since his rookie season in 20216. Furthermore, Hill’s six receiving touchdowns were a career low.
Some of his struggles were related to a wrist injury. However, Hill’s best days are behind him, even with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. Last year, he averaged six targets and 8.6 fantasy points per game in the seven contests Tagovailoa didn’t play or left early. By comparison, Hill averaged 8.1 targets and 15.8 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests Tagovailoa finished. Yet, his 15.8 fantasy points per contest average would have only made him the WR14 on a points-per-game basis last season.
More importantly, Hill’s efficiency took a significant hit. According to Fantasy Points Data, his yards per route declined by 50.9% (4.05 vs. 1.99) and his missed forced tackle per reception rate lowered by 57.7% (26% vs. 11%) from 2023 to last year. Furthermore, the loss of Jonnu Smith doesn’t help the veteran wide receiver. Smith’s aDOT was 5.0 last season, while Hill’s has been 11.3 or higher every year in Miami. Fantasy players shouldn’t draft him as a top-15 wide receiver.
James Cook (BUF): ADP 34.6 | RB14
Many had Cook as a third-year breakout candidate last season. After finishing outside the top 10 running backs in his first two years in the NFL, the former Georgia star had a career season in 2024. He finished as the RB8, averaging 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game. However, Cook’s breakout didn’t come the way everyone expected. After totaling four rushing touchdowns in his first two years in the league, the veteran was a scoring machine in 2024.
Cook led the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns last season, scoring at least once in 75% of the games. However, he didn’t see an uptick in volume. Instead, the former Georgia star’s rushing attempts per game declined from 13.9 in 2023 to 12.9 last year. He had fewer than 13 rushing attempts in over half the contests, including three of the final five regular-season games. Unfortunately, Cook is a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate.
Furthermore, his value in the passing game declined last year. After averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game in the air in 2023, the veteran averaged 4.4 per contest last season, as his target share dropped from 9.3% to 7.7% despite the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. More importantly, Cook and the Bills are in the middle of messy contract talks, which could lead to him sitting out part of training camp as a negotiating ploy.
Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target
Drake Maye (NE): ADP 133.4 | QB16
The Patriots had arguably the worst offensive unit in the NFL last year, leading to the team starting Jacoby Brissett to begin the season. Yet, Maye eventually started and flashed superstar upside as a rookie. He finished as the QB22, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game. However, the former North Carolina star’s average is skewed by throwing 15 total passes in three games because of unfortunate circumstances and a concussion in Week 8.
Maye averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests where he played over 31% of snaps. The rookie would have been the QB13 over a 17-game pace with that average. More importantly, Maye is an underrated rusher, averaging 4.5 rushing attempts for 35.1 yards and 4.5 fantasy points per contest on the ground before the Joe Milton showcase game in Week 18. Meanwhile, New England vastly improved his situation this offseason.
After hiring Mike Vrabel as their new head coach and bringing back Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator, the Patriots signed Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, and Morgan Moses in free agency. Furthermore, they used their top four picks in the NFL Draft on offense, selecting Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, and Jared Wilson. Don’t be surprised if Maye is a top-eight quarterback in 2025 with a significantly improved offensive line and receiving corps.
Mason Taylor (NYJ): ADP 209.4 | TE27
Last season, Brock Bowers surprised everyone and became a fantasy superstar as a rookie. After having a TE10 ADP, the former Georgia star finished as the TE1, averaging 15.5 PPR fantasy points per game after ranking sixth in the NFL with 153 targets. While everyone wants to find this year’s superstar rookie, none of the tight ends in the 2025 draft class are elite prospects like Bowers. However, my favorite sleeper tight end is a rookie.
Unlike Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, Taylor has the clearest pathway to fantasy success as a rookie because of limited target competition. Garrett Wilson will lead the Jets in targets this season. However, the rest of the team’s receiving corps consists of career journeymen and young players with limited upside. Last year, Tyler Conklin saw 68 targets despite Wilson and Davante Adams earning a combined 52.2% target share. More importantly, Justin Fields loves his tight ends.
The last time Fields was a full-time starter was in 2023. His top tight end, Cole Kmet, finished as the TE8, averaging 5.3 targets and 10.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, DJ Moore was the WR6 that year, averaging 16.9 fantasy points per game, totaling 136 targets, the 16th-most in the NFL. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Taylor finishes his rookie season as a mid-range TE1 finish, even if Wilson has a career year.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
