The calendar has flipped to July, and that means football will be played at the end of this month, albeit just the Hall of Fame game. But while the Hall of Fame game isn’t something to postpone holidays for, it does mean that fantasy football redraft season is truly upon us, and now is a good time to start preparing.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Pick 1.03
This series will give you an overview of what you can expect to see no matter which first-round pick you draw. In what feels like a very strong first round in 2025, nailing your picks will be more important than ever.
Let’s dive into our approach for the fantasy football 1.03 pick for upcoming drafts. We look into the players likely to be available, those to target/avoid and a mock draft from the pick to help you prepare for your fantasy football draft.
Players to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
These players will likely be available when you make your selection:
Players to Target at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
If Ja’Marr Chase is already off the board, it can feel like a bit of a flat tier with three solid choices to choose from, but there are pros and cons for all of them, which we’ll get into.
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
It’s unlikely Saquon Barkley makes it this far in drafts, but not entirely unusual. If you have drafters ahead of you who are forward-thinking, Bijan Robinson might be gone or it could be a double-dip of wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb. The doubts around Barkley revolve around the massive workload he had in 2024.
As Andrew Erickson pointed out recently on Twitter:
Only two running backs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013.
Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top five.
The other nine became busts. Injuries, regression, or volume drop-offs crushed them.
Barkley overcame having a lack of goal-line touches because of the Eagles’ tush push by simply rushing for 330 more yards than the next nearest running back. Barkley also notched 15 touchdowns and was a top-five running back in seven weeks.
The doubts about Barkley’s role in the receiving game turned out to be fair, with him hitting a career-low 33 receptions, but it simply didn’t matter because of Barkley’s efficiency in this excellent Eagles offense. If Barkley makes it to the 1.03 pick, the good likely outweighs the bad enough to make him a solid choice, but it could be worthwhile to be mindful of the risks when you build out the rest of your running back room.
As the clock has ticked over into July, we’re seeing some low-level steam for Will Shipley with team reporters suggesting a bigger role in 2025, but that’s likely limited to Shipley stepping into Kenneth Gainwell‘s vacated role, and maybe slightly more if the team believes they need to keep Barkley fresh. Let’s be clear, though, Barkley will play when it matters.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Unlike Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson has had to deal with a healthy or perhaps unhealthy amount of quarterback turnover in his time with the Minnesota Vikings. That hasn’t stopped Jefferson from producing, though, averaging 96.5 receiving yards per game throughout his career with no year below 87.5. For reference, only five players averaged above that mark in 2024, one of whom was Jefferson.
The last time that Jefferson was the WR1 was 2022, and he’s been a mainstay in the top five receivers in PPR points per game since 2021. That kind of consistency can be worth paying up for. The case against Jefferson would be that he’s playing with an inexperienced quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury. If both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are also on the field, there are a lot of mouths to be fed. Still, it also seems likely that Addison might be suspended for the first few games of the year, opening up the potential of a really strong start for Jefferson.
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
Sometimes, rather than going off who finished highest last year, it can pay to take a more forward-thinking approach. Bijan Robinson ranked third among running backs in rushing yards (1,456) and scored only two fewer touchdowns than James Cook and Derrick Henry, who led all backs with 16 scores during the fantasy season.
Robinson also ranked first out of 46 running backs in the lowest proportion of his runs being stuffed at the line of scrimmage and ranked in the top two in success rate in both man and zone scheme runs, per Fantasy Points. In the receiving game, Robinson trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs with 58 receptions. He scores touchdowns, accumulates a lot of yards and earns targets – it’s the recipe we want to look for in the potential overall fantasy RB1.
If Barkley goes in the first two picks, and you’re set on a running back for your first pick, Robinson is far from a bad pick. In best ball, we’re starting to see Robinson drafted ahead of Barkley, which could also happen in redraft.
Players to Avoid at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
This isn’t to downplay any of Jahmyr Gibbs‘ achievements to date, but it’s hard not to factor in David Montgomery‘s presence. Gibbs finished 2024 as the RB3 in PPR points per game, third in running back total yardage and sixth in running back targets. He was undeniably excellent and had six games with 20+ PPR points, but it’s also fair to point out that two of those came in games without David Montgomery.
Not to downplay David Montgomery, but man… imagine Gibbs full-time with no competition. pic.twitter.com/GWwuhGb1gg
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 3, 2025
Throughout the last two seasons, Gibbs averages 11 PPR points more when Montgomery isn’t available. It’s incredibly hard to be the RB1 overall if you have another running back taking some of the goal-line work and mixing in on high-value situations. Gibbs is a great first-round pick, but not quite worth the 1.03 pick.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Perhaps if George Pickens hadn’t found his way to Dallas, we could have had a very real conversation about CeeDee Lamb as the overall WR1 once again, but that competition on an offense we can have some reservations about does make it tricky.
The Cowboys’ passing offense ranked 26th in pass offense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) last year, and that wasn’t completely because Dak Prescott missed half the season. When healthy during Weeks 1-9, Prescott ranked 21st in completion percentage, 22nd in yards per attempt and he was on pace for his most interceptions in a season. Perhaps Prescott and the Cowboys can take a step forward, but it’s hard to make a solid argument for Lamb after he only had three top-12 weekly finishes in 2025.
Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
There is a lot to like when it comes to Ashton Jeanty, and this isn’t to downplay his upside as a rookie whatsoever, but since 1984, only once has a rookie running back finished as the RB1 overall – Saquon Barkley in 2018.
If you’re drafting Jeanty at the 1.03, you have to assume he has a path to the RB1 overall finish, and that might be wishcasting slightly. The Raiders have a generational tight end in Brock Bowers, who will command volume, and Jakobi Meyers has always outplayed expectations. It’s also perhaps noteworthy that the Raiders signed Raheem Mostert, who has been a very good goal-line back over the years. If they use him at all in that area, it could significantly eat into Jeanty’s upside. It felt like Jeanty was going to be a first-half-of-drafts type player earlier in the offseason, but lately we’re seeing him start to drop towards the turn.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.03 opens up many roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take Justin Jefferson, there will still be running backs available when it makes it back to you of a strong caliber, players like Bucky Irving and Josh Jacobs, and you’ll have access to the top-end quarterbacks and tight ends.
If you go running back to start the draft, the wide receivers who make it back are a little less appealing, with Tyreek Hill and Garrett Wilson both bringing question marks to their 2025 seasons. Because of this, you might find it easier to build Hero RB builds with either your back in the first or second round. If you lean into a dual running back build, it can become much harder to build a nice receiver room.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft From the 1.03 Pick
We used our FREE fantasy football mock draft simulator to show you an example of a draft from the 1.03 position. You can sync your league for free and mock draft against your fantasy football league settings to prepare more specifically for your draft.
Here’s how our fantasy football mock draft from the 1.03 position turned out.
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