MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (7/13)

Check the lineups carefully today. With the All-Star break starting after today, I would expect managers to give some key lineup cogs a day of rest. The DraftKings DFS slate that we are looking at today is the featured slate. It includes 11 games. Those games start at 11:35 a.m. ET. FanDuel has an identical slate.

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Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/13)

• Freddy Peralta has been excellent all season. In only one of his 19 starts has he allowed more than three earned runs, and that was still only four allowed. His strikeout rate is a bit down from past years, but he has struck out at least six batters in seven of his last eight starts. Today, he faces off against the Washington Nationals.
• Eury Perez seems to be rounding back into form after missing 20 months of big league action with Tommy John surgery. In his two July starts, he has struck out 15 batters in 11 innings with one earned run allowed. Baltimore has struck out 23.2% of the time in their home games. Perez is exceptionally cheap on DraftKings.
• If you are looking for a thrifty starting pitcher, consider Joey Cantillo. While he hasn’t reached five innings in any game this season, he did throw 84 pitches in his last start. He’s only started two games this season, but struck 12 batters across 7.1 innings with three earned runs allowed. Today, he opposes the White Sox, who have struck out 26.6% of the time against left-handed pitchers.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

New York Yankees Projected Lineup (7/13)

• Matthew Boyd has been excellent this season with a 2.52 ERA. He has even earned his first All-Star game appearance at 34 years old. However, when the New York Yankees face a left-handed pitcher, you have to look at their lineup for DFS purposes.
• Three of the top six OPS marks against left-handed pitchers are Yankees hitters. Aaron Judge leads the way with an absurd 1.382 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Yes, he is pricey, but there is a reason for that, as multiple home runs are in play for him every day.
• Judge leads the way in OPS against left-handed pitchers, but Paul Goldschmidt is not far behind in second place. His OPS doubles against left-handed pitchers (1.259) compared to right-handed pitchers (.622).
• The other Yankee bat who is top 10 in OPS against left-handed pitchers is Cody Bellinger (sixth, 1.123). He has also been on a tear recently with a 1.182 OPS over the last two weeks.

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (7/13)

• It took a while for the Brewers to get going yesterday when they were a top lineup to stack. A ninth-inning rally helped them deliver six total runs. Today, they are opposed by Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin. Since the start of June, his ERA is 6.45, which is even better than his 7.09 FIP.
• While he is not listed in the lineup above, check to see if Andrew Vaughn is playing. He is still only $2,700 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. Being a Milwaukee Brewer has seemingly revitalized him. He is 6-for-12 since joining the Brewers with two home runs and 10 RBI in only five games.
• Another Brewer who is in play for today’s matchup is Sal Frelick. First, he has an .898 OPS at home as opposed to a .627 OPS on the road. Second, while he can hit against left-handed pitching, almost all of his power comes against right-handed pitchers. An absurd Sixteen of his 21 extra-base hits, including all seven of his home runs, have come against right-handed pitchers.
• Of course, you can always choose to play Christian Yelich or Jackson Chourio, as they can always deliver multiple extra-base hits. Consider Caleb Durbin if you are looking for a cheaper play. Over the last 30 days, he has the second-highest wRC+ on the Brewers amongst qualified batters (165). Only Yelich is higher.

Core Studs

• This marks back-to-back days that Marcell Ozuna is a recommendation based on his history with the opposing starter. He ended up going 2-for-4 yesterday with a home run. He is 5-for-16 in his career against opposing starting pitcher Sonny Gray. Three of his hits have been home runs, and one is a double.
• Jose Altuve’s track record against Nathan Eovaldi is about as extensive as you’ll find. He has gone 16-for-55 against him in his career with seven home runs.
• Cal Raleigh needs one more home run to tie Barry Bonds’ record for home runs before the All-Star game. You have to expect that he’ll be swinging for the fences today.

Value Plays/Punts

• Ha-Seong Kim had hits in his first four games as a Ray before hitting the buzzsaw that was Garrett Crochet yesterday. In the July 10th game, he hit his first home run of the season. Today’s matchup is against Brayan Bello, who is no Crochet.
• Agustin Ramirez has been quietly excellent in his Major League debut. Over the last 30 days, he has 13 extra-base hits, including four home runs. He has used those extra-base hits to drive in 19 batters over his last 25 games started.
• Another player, like Marcell Ozuna, whom I’m recommending for the second consecutive day, is Salvador Perez. Unlike Ozuna, who delivered a home run, Perez went 0-for-3 yesterday. The power metrics still look great, and he has had four home runs in the past week.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Mitch Keller (SP – PIT): 4.5 Strikeouts — Higher

When you think of Mitch Keller, you don’t typically think of strikeouts. However, he has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Today’s matchup is against a Twins team striking out 24.2% of the time over the last 30 days.

Paul Goldschmidt (1B – NYY): 1.5 Total Bases — Higher

I already mentioned Paul Goldschmidt’s dominance against left-handed pitchers. The left-handed pitcher he is facing is Shota Imanaga. Goldschmidt has gone 3-for-7 against Imanaga in his career with a double and a home run.

Tyler Freeman (2B, SS, OF, DH – COL): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Higher

Typically, you want to fade the Colorado Rockies on the road. Their road matchup today, though, is at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the rare offensive environments comparable to Coors Field.

Tyler Freeman has cleared a combined 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in eight of his past 10 games. Unfortunately, his two misses are his last two games, but I expect he’ll get back on track today.

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