Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Wide Receivers
At the beginning of the offseason, Emeka Egbuka looked like this year’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rome Odunze. The talented first-round selection in the NFL draft found himself in a squeeze for target volume immediately with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but as we have progressed through the offseason and camp, the pathway has become clearer for Egbuka to step up in a big way in year one. Godwin’s health issues are much more complicated than originally anticipated, and he might not be at 100% til the mid-point of the 2025 season. Jalen McMillan sustained a neck injury in the preseason that has also called his availability for a large chunk of this season into question (he could be out until their bye in Week 9). Egbuka looks like he could be the clear WR2 for the Bucs for most of the season, if not all of it. Egbuka’s talent has never been in question. In two of Egbuka’s final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 40 FBS wide receivers in yards per route run (38th, 11th) and top 20 in receiving grade (19th, 12th) and yards after the catch (16th, 12th). Atlanta’s two-high approach should yield a ton of targets for Egbuka in Week 1 against the Falcons’ rookie nickel corner Billy Bowman Jr., who, in his final collegiate season, allowed a 68.7% catch rate and 125 passer rating (29th-highest among 255 qualifying safeties) in slot coverage.
Calvin Ridley had to suffer through horrible quarterback play last year en route to a WR36 finish in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Ridley finished 78th in catchable target rate. He finished 31st in target share and receiving yards per game, 32nd in yards per route run, and 33rd in separation and route win rate. He was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game. Ridley will have to get by with volume in Week 1 because his outlook is rough with a Patrick Surtain II shadow incoming. Surtain ll shadowed seven times last year, following D.K. Metcalf, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, George Pickens, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, and Garrett Wilson on 60-4-96% of their routes. No wide receiver eclipsed 54 receiving yards in his coverage, and six of them didn’t surpass 40 receiving yards. Ridley is headed to the shadow realm for Week 1.
Jerry Jeudy FINALLY had the breakout season that we have all been waiting for. Last year, he finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game while securing 90 of his 144 targets with 1,229 receiving yards. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 14th in receiving yards per game, 33rd in target share, and 45th in yards per route run. The rollercoaster he endured with quarterback play did impact those numbers. In Weeks 8-18, with anyone outside of Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball, he ranked 15th in target share, 20th in yards per route run and first downs per route run, and second in receiving yards per game behind only Ja’Marr Chase (among 95 qualifying wide receivers). I’m not bullish about Jeudy’s outlook in Week 1, though. Last year, Cincy was surprisingly good against perimeter wide receivers, giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target. Jeudy didn’t surpass 20 receiving yards in either game against Cincy last year.
D.J. Moore had a rough 2024 season despite still drawing a high-end target share in the Chicago passing attack and finishing 98 receptions as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Moore still drew a ton of volume, ranking 13th in target share (24.4%) and tenth in first-read share (31.8%), but his per-route numbers were rough. Yes, Caleb Williams was partially to blame as Moore ranked 55th in catchable target rate, which could partially explain his 1.53 yards per route run (60th), 56.8 receiving yards per game (35th), and 0.068 first downs per route run (67th). It doesn’t, however, wipe away his 76th ranking in separation and 59th standing in route win rate. Last year, Minnesota led the NFL in two high rate (63.6%). Last season, among 101 qualifying receivers, Moore ranked 60th and 68th in separation and route win rates against two high. It’s tough to feel great about his outlook in Week 1 with the coverage matchup and lining up against Isaiah Rodgers (2024: 50% catch rate and 85.4 passer rating allowed) and Byron Murphy (2024: 70% catch rate and 79.3 passer rating allowed) all game.
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