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Players to Buy
Drake London did all of his damage in the first half, with 6-95-1 (RZ score) on 7 first-half targets. The Falcons’ No. 1 WR finally had the breakout game (38% target share, 40% target rate per route run) that I was hoping for when I was pumping his draft stock all offseason. London remains a buy and target if he can be acquired cheaper during his bye week. I like the schedule coming up after the Falcons’ bye week. Keep in mind that the Falcons fired their previous WR coach before Week 4, in an effort to get more offensive WR production. So far, so good.
Brian Thomas Jr. led the Jaguars with a 35% air yards share and 23% target share. Not gaudy numbers by any means, but good for the Jags’ No. 1 WR. Still very much a buy-low target as the WR15 in XFPPG through four games in a new offense. BTJ was more efficient on his targets in Week 4 than in past weeks, and he led the team in receiving yards (49).
More alpha usage without the box-score pop yet: 22% target share (8 targets) with 50% of the team’s air yards in Week 4; T-Mac is 18th in air-yard share through four games and running well ahead of every other Panthers WR. Bryce Young keeps looking to T-Mac downfield and in the red zone, making him a prime TD-regression candidate with juicy matchups coming. Buy Low on the WR10 in expected fantasy PPG.
After a crazy productive rookie season, Ladd McConkey‘s numbers have tanked. Quentin Johnston‘s breakout and Keenan Allen‘s built-in rapport with Justin Herbert have taken a major toll on the Chargers’ second-year man. I’d like to think that he will turn things around because he’s super talented…but with those other two guys healthy, it’s hard to see after what has transpired over the first four weeks. Now Allen is 33 years old and will likely miss games at some point. That might be the jump start Ladd needs to see a boost in receiving yards and targets. It’s not as if Ladd has not seen any volume, but he hasn’t had as many big plays or found the end zone yet. Considering this looks like rock bottom – 1 catch for 11 yards – I think this is the time to buy while there’s immense panic in the streets. The schedule is good over the next few weeks for him to get going.
One of the best outings we have seen from Patrick Mahomes in a long time. 270 passing yards and 4 TDs against the Ravens in Week 4. With Xavier Worthy back and Rashee Rice just a few weeks from returning…I’d be looking to buy the Chiefs QB.
Jameson Williams commanded a team-high 10 targets in Week 4 when you include two negated by penalties. The Lions WR also saw over 200 air yards. The Lions tried so hard to get Jamo going with multiple downfield shots for a team-high 30% target share, but he and Jared Goff just could not connect. Buy Low. Chase the air yards and team-leading targets for when Detroit plays Cincy in Week 5.
Trey Benson played 55% of the snaps in his first start of the year in Week 4. And he still out-touched the next closest RB – Emari Demercado by a touch count of 13-4. After failing to deliver in a massive prime-time spot, albeit in a tough matchup, with just 13 touches for 40 yards, I think Benson is a great buy-low target among RBs. He is an explosive RB who catches passes. The process says…go after that guy.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the WAS backfield with 35% snaps played in Week 4. He ripped off a long 48-yard rush and started the game for Washington. He also out-carried JCM 4-1 in the first half and earned the most red-zone touches (2). But Jacory Croskey-Merritt technically tied C-Rod with a 35% snap rate. Also, Bill led the Commanders RBs with touches (9) – but it was by a narrow amount. He also saw just one touch in the first half – the fewest among all the Commanders RBs. Even so, the split-committee usage was essentially the same as the week previously. The Commanders don’t seem like they truly want to cut it loose with Croskey-Merritt, even though he remains very efficient (No.1 in the NFL in rushing success rate at 55% at 5.9 yards per carry). Usage has been frustrating, but he’s still a rookie 7th-rounder that I think the Commanders will continue to get more involved as the season progresses. Given the usage over the last two weeks, he can probably be acquired for next to nothing. And even though C-Rod and Bill are both averaging north of 5 yards per carry…the down-to-down consistency is stark. Rodriguez had a bottom-5 success rate rushing among RBs this season (22%).
The rookie RB led the Texans’ backfield in touches (9 to 6) in the first half versus Nick Chubb. Woody Marks led the backfield with a 56% snap rate, 21 touches overall and earned an 18% target share (36% target rate per route run) despite a positive game script (typically bad for pass-catching RBs). Marks also bogarted all the red-zone touches for the Texans and scored the Texans’ first red-zone TD of the 2025 season. Great matchup next week versus the Ravens. And with no Joe Mixon return on the horizon, Marks should stay involved even alongside a healthy Chubb.
Stefon Diggs had his best game as a Patriot in Week 4, going for 6 catches and 100-plus yards. After four weeks, it appears that Stefon Diggs might be coming back into form after the torn ACL injury from 2024. Snaps were up to 63% despite the team sitting guys in the fourth quarter. He actually led the Patriots in routes run (77%) along with a dominant 39% target share.
Must-add WR of the week. Wan’Dale Robinson has shown that he can command a high number of targets and demand red-zone looks. With New York expanding his route tree past just low ADOT stuff in 2025, Robinson could turn into a weekly fantasy WR option ROS. Averaged 10 targets per game without Malik Nabers last season.
Players to Sell
Travis Etienne logged a 60% snap share in Week 4. The Jags used all 3 of their RBs for the second straight week, but that didn’t stop ETN. He ripped off another huge TD run (48-yard long) as he continues to thrive in the Liam Coen offense. However, the receiving usage was down again (just one catch, fewer routes than LeQuint Allen). The 49ers’ matchup might have been tougher had Nick Bosa still been part of the defense. Even so, give credit where credit is due. Etienne took advantage. However, I still think he’s a sell-high with the toughest defenses yet to come between the Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams before a Week 8 bye week. And I expect Bhayshul Tuten to get more involved in the second half of the season. Note that Tuten has been battling a shoulder injury, which might be keeping his snaps down.
It’s possible that AK41 could get traded with the Saints sitting at 0-4. Even so, Alvin Kamara‘s receiving has been inconsistent in this offense with Spencer Rattler. In two of four games with Rattler, Kamara’s been held to 2 or fewer targets. He had ZERO of those games in 2024. If Kendre Miller continues to get more involved, I’m concerned about Kamara’s season-long value. However, the schedule for New Orleans is pretty favorable coming up for the RBs. So if you have to hold or can’t get a decent deal – I think that’s the move.
Jordan Mason totaled a 62% snap share and 19 touches in Week 4. However, he didn’t score. I hate to admit it, but Jordan Mason might he a sell candidate. The Browns are a tough matchup in Week 5. Then you have the bye week, followed by Chargers/Lions. By the time the schedule eases up…Aaron Jones might return. Put him on the trade block and see if you can get any decent returns.
The Bears’ rushing attack is anemic. I’d anticipate some kind of change to this RB room post-bye week. Swift (66% snap rate in Week 4) is being his uber-inefficient self from last season. Sell before he loses his job outright. Through four games, D’Andre Swift has the 9th-worst rushing success rate at 3.3 yards per carry (Bottom-10 PFF rushing grade). Use the TD he scored in Week 4 as a reason to ship him off.
Volume remains solid, but the receiving isn’t: Tony Pollard is running routes without targets on a Titans team that ranks 32nd in throws to RBs. Cameron Ward hasn’t been checking down, and Tyjae Spears‘ return is looming (21-day practice window is an option for him to return), threatening both snaps and high-value touches. Another solid Week 4 gives you a clean sell window before the pass-game ceiling (and possibly the workload) gets capped later in the year. Sell High.
DK Metcalf buried me as a fade in Week 4 – ripping off a HUGE 80-yard catch-and-run to the house. But the facts are the facts. Through four games, Metcalf is outside the top-50 in expected fantasy points per game. 3rd-most points scored ABOVE expectation. And that’s because he owns a super low Adot (5.9) and a 20% target share (5.5 targets per game). He has scored in three straight games. Metcalf’s current usage (low-aDOT, low volume) suggests that his production will tail off dramatically. Sell high.
Just more low ADOT (4.3) and low-value targets for DJ Moore in Week 4 culminating into a 4-38 stat line .DJ Moore managers are just keeping their fingers crossed that he gets traded at some point. Because the role Moore has in this 2025 Bears offense is lackluster at best. Moore is the WR48 in expected fantasy PPG this season.
Can’t get much worse for Calvin Ridley. Had people ask me this past week if they should drop Ridley for Elic Ayomanor. After Week 4, I felt justified in telling those to pull the trigger. I don’t think Ridley will continue to be this bad for the rest of the season, but you can’t play him till we see more positives. In shallower leagues, he is a drop (for Ayomanor). It is interesting that he only played 54% of the snaps in Week 4, running a route on 40% of the dropbacks. Usage down, production tanking….Sell. HC Brian Callahan came out on Monday and said that Ridley had his snaps dialed back during Sunday’s loss to the Texans due to an undisclosed injury, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
Mark Andrews‘ routes took a massive hit with Isaiah Likely back in the starting lineup. Do not trust the Ravens’ tight end in the long run. He is TD or bust after playing just 56% of the snaps in Week 4.
Totaled 18 targets, 11 catches, 125 yds from Weeks 2-4. He was plagued by drops (including a TD that was intercepted) in Week 2. In Week 3 he didn’t look like he was on the same page with Mahomes at times. In Week 4, when his QB tossed 4 TDs…Travis Kelce was stuck on five catches for fewer than 50 yards. Sell for me. If Kelce cannot take advantage of being the Chiefs’ best receiver, it’s not going to get easier when the other WRs come back healthy.
David Njoku is becoming an afterthought in the Browns offense. Harold Fannin more than doubled Njoku’s targets (he also out-snapped him 85% to 84%) in Week 4. ROS, you want Fannin as the Browns TE1. The rookie had 2 red-zone targets (with a RZ carry) but didn’t score last week. He has also out-gained Njoku in three of four games played this season. If a rookie QB goes under center for the Browns, that could take a toll on the entire passing attack, but especially Njoku.
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