The Week 4 NFL DFS main slate features only three games with totals of 48.0 points or higher. There are also some vast spreads. While two of the games with the highest totals have slight spreads, neither of them is included as a featured game stack. Instead, one of the games with a high total and a sizable spread gets the nod, and another featuring a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut is suggested as a game to stack.
Interestingly, the core studs and values/punts feature only one player from the suggested game stacks. There’s also a bonus skinny stack included among those players.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 4
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bills vs. Saints
Spread/Total: BUF -15.5/48.0 Points
The Bills have the highest implied total (32 points) on the main slate, and Josh Allen is projected as the highest-scoring player on DraftKings and FanDuel. The game’s spread is lopsided, which can lead to some garbage time. However, if there’s garbage time, it likely means some of Buffalo’s starters exploded.
The game’s massive spread and Buffalo’s offensive tendencies are ideal for James Cook‘s DFS outlook. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Buffalo’s 49% situation-neutral rush rate is tied for the fifth-highest mark this year and aligns with Joe Brady’s play-calling tendencies for the Bills before this year.
Cook is second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (94.7), has four rushing touchdowns and has been efficient on 53 rush attempts through three weeks. In addition, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Cook’s 39.1% route participation rate is pacing Buffalo’s backfield, 10.4% higher than Ty Johnson‘s 28.7% route participation rate. According to Pro Football Reference, the Saints have permitted the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (25.1) and the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (22.1) to running backs. Cook is in an eruption spot.
However, the Bills might come out slinging it this week. The Saints have faced the ninth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this year. New Orleans has yielded 210.0 passing yards per game and seven passing touchdowns this season. Allen can also score points against them with his legs.
When Allen takes to the air, Khalil Shakir (73.9% route participation), Keon Coleman (73.0% route participation) and Dalton Kincaid (56.5% route participation rate) are the most likely players to be on the receiving end of his passes. Shakir and Coleman are first and second on the Bills in route participation, and Kincaid is fourth.
Coleman leads the Bills in air yards share (27.6%), and he’s a big-bodied vertical option, an archetype that gave the Saints trouble in Week 1 and Week 2. Marvin Harrison Jr. had five receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown on six targets in Week 1, and Jauan Jennings had 10 targets, five receptions, 89 receiving yards and one touchdown in Week 2.
Shakir is a more reliable short and intermediate target for Allen than Coleman, and Shakir is a handful after the catch. Interestingly, Shakir’s average depth of target (aDOT) has climbed from 5.3 yards downfield in 2024 to 7.2 yards downfield this season.
Kincaid is the other intriguing pass-catching option from the Bills. The third-year pro’s 56.5% route participation rate is suboptimal, with Dawson Knox and rookie bulldozer Jackson Hawes cutting into Kincaid’s playing time. Nevertheless, Kincaid’s 0.25 targets per route run, 17.2% target share and 19.0% first-read share are stellar marks, resulting in 13 receptions (4.3 per game), 151 receiving yards (50.3 per game), 2.32 yards per route run (Y/RR) and two receiving touchdowns. He also has a team-high three end-zone targets. Kincaid has the TE6 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings and the TE4 value score at FanDuel this week.
The Saints have a putrid implied total. Fortunately, there are avenues to scoring points without touchdowns. Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson should be busy in a negative game script.
They will benefit from New Orleans’ narrow target tree and hyper-aggressive playing tempo. Olave has a 35.7% air yards share, 28.9% target share, 0.30 targets per route run, 23 receptions (7.7 per game) and 165 scoreless receiving yards (55.0 per game). Johnson has a 19.7% air yards share, 23.1% target share, 0.27 targets per route run, 19 receptions (6.3 per game), 176 receiving yards (58.7 per game) and one receiving touchdown.
Finally, the Saints should run a ton of plays. According to RotoViz’s pace app, they’ve had the second-highest no-huddle rate (22%), taken the fewest seconds per snap (20.5), tied for the seventh-most plays run per 60 minutes (66) and tied for the second-highest pass rate (66%) in situation-neutral game scripts this season.
Game: Giants vs. Chargers
Spread/Total: LAC -6.5/44.0 Points
The Jaxson Dart era is set to begin this week. First of all, gamers should throw out New York’s play-calling tendencies through three weeks. Josh Norris and Hayden Winks discussed the vast difference in play-calling for Dart during the preseason on their Stats versus Film Show for Underdog Fantasy.
Dart was outstanding in the preseason. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Dart completed 32 of 47 passes (68.1%) for 372 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions with four big-time throws (8.3 BBT%) and one turnover-worthy play (1.9 TWP%) at a 7.7-yard aDOT. Preseason success doesn’t assure he’ll hit the ground running, but Dart’s success is better than the alternative of faceplanting. He’s an intriguing punt with the ability to score points with his legs after rushing for over 560 yards in each of his final three collegiate seasons in the SEC.
Malik Nabers is a stud and could be in store for a squeaky-wheel game after amassing only two receptions for 13 yards on seven targets last week, and given the quality of passes Russell Wilson was chucking last week, targets might be a friendly interpretation of the passes to Nabers. Even with last week’s dud, among 79 wideouts with at least 60 routes this year, Nabers is second in air yards share (55.3%), 12th in target share (26.4%), tied for 10th in receptions (16), fourth in receiving yards per game (83.7), tied for seventh in touchdown receptions (two) and second in expected fantasy points per game. Nabers is projected to be the WR3 at both DFS sites this week.
Wan’Dale Robinson has an eye-catching 13.9 expected fantasy points per game, and he has a rock-solid 76.6% route participation rate. He’s the safer bargain alternative from Nabers as a bring-back from the Chargers side of this game, or the most appealing double-stacking choice with Nabers and Dart.
However, Darius Slayton is a viable GPP contrarian pick. Slayton has a robust 87.5% route participation rate. He’s also theoretically a stylistic fit as a field-stretching weapon for a rookie quarterback willing to attack downfield.
Cam Skattebo should be a workhorse with Tyrone Tracy injured. Devin Singletary will likely take something off Skattebo’s plate, but Singletary’s workload will likely be the low-calorie, between-the-20s rushing opportunities, leaving Skattebo the receiving and goal-line work as well as the lion’s share of the rushing opportunities. Workhorse running backs don’t often have a salary as low as Skattebo’s at both DFS providers. Thus, Skattebo has the highest value score among running backs at FanDuel.
The Chargers are the A-side of this matchup. Omarion Hampton will be featured below, so I’ll save my analysis for him for later. Additionally, Los Angeles’s passing attack has been the headliner for the offense this season.
According to nfelo, the Chargers have the highest pass rate over expectations (8.8% PROE) this year. Cincinnati’s 8.2% PROE was the highest in 2024, meaning the Chargers have a higher PROE this year than the notoriously pass-happy Bengals had last year.
Justin Herbert is thriving in Greg Roman’s pass-happy offense. According to Pro Football Reference, Herbert is leading qualified quarterbacks in passing yards per game (286.7), tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (six) and eighth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.50 ANY/A). Furthermore, Herbert is averaging a career-high 23.0 rushing yards per game this season.
Herbert has force-fed his wideouts, allowing Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen to all have varying degrees of success. They’ve collectively accounted for 78.5% of the air yards share, with Johnston pacing the group at 34.1%, followed by Allen at 25.6% and rounded out by McConkey at 18.8%. They’ve also accounted for 65.7% of the targets. Allen leads the Chargers in target share (25.0%). Johnston is second on the club in target share (21.3%). Once again, McConkey is third among the wideouts, recording a 19.4% target share.
Allen is the best value pick of the bunch, tying for the WR3 value score at DraftKings. Johnston has been electric, and he’s a big-play waiting to happen in a breakout campaign. McConkey hasn’t lived up to his lofty preseason expectations. The second-year wideout is still extremely talented, and the slow start makes him a drool-inducing pivot from Allen and Johnston in tournaments.
Core Studs
- Puka Nacua is projected as the WR1 at both DFS outlets this week, with the highest value score at DraftKings. Among 79 wide receivers with at least 60 routes this year, Nacua is second in target share (36.5%), first in targets per route run (0.45), first in receptions (29), first in receiving yards per game (111.0), second in yards per route run (4.32 Y/RR) and third in first-read rate (44.2%).
- Jonathan Taylor is the NFL’s leading rusher (338 yards at 112.7 per game). Among 48 running backs with at least 15 rush attempts this season, he’s seventh in yards per carry (5.63), tied for 20th in yards before contact per attempt (1.93), second in yards after contact per attempt (3.70), seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.28) and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (three). Taylor has a track record of running roughshod over opponents. However, he’s added some contributions through the air, with a 66.3% route participation rate, 3.0 targets per game, eight receptions (2.7 per game), 93 receiving yards (31.0 per game) and one receiving touchdown. Thus, Taylor has a blistering 21.1 expected fantasy points per game.
- Ricky Pearsall didn’t participate in practice on Wednesday, but Wednesday is a common day for players to rest any injuries. Assuming Pearsall’s injury isn’t serious, he’s a tantalizing DFS pick. Among 79 wide receivers with at least 60 routes in 2025, Pearsall is sixth in air yards share (51.8%), 29th in target share (20.9%), tied for 22nd in targets per route run (0.22), 22nd in first-read rate (27.8%), tied for 10th in receptions (16), third in receiving yards per game (93.7), fifth in yards per route run (2.60 Y/RR) and seventh in expected fantasy points per game (17.3).
Value Plays/Punts
- Mike Vrabel could give Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson a chance to atone for their fumbles last week. However, ESPN’s Mike Reiss captured TreVeyon Henderson leading the position group in reps in a tackling/ball-carrier drill on Wednesday. Perhaps the more actionable data point comes from Henderson’s usage after Stevenson’s and Gibson’s fumbles last week, tabulated and shared by Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland. Henderson is worth being significantly overweight in tournaments, given his low salary and his matchup this week. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (114.3), 5.0 receptions per game and 34.7 receiving yards per game to running backs this year, and they’re only sneaking under the radar as a mouthwatering DFS matchup because they’ve coughed up just one touchdown to the position. Carolina’s run defense remains one to attack with running backs.
- Hampton is projected as the RB9 at both DFS outlets, with the RB2 value score at DraftKings, and tying for the RB3 value score at FanDuel. He’s in store for a bell-cow role with Najee Harris out for the rest of the year with a torn Achilles. Hampton had season highs last week for rush attempts (19), rushing yards (70), targets (seven), receptions (six), receiving yards (59) and splashed paydirt for the first time in his rookie campaign. Hampton’s role alone would make him an elite DFS pick at his salary on both DFS providers. Yet, he’s an even dreamier pick against Big Blue’s pathetic defense against running backs. The G-Men have surrendered the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (26.3) and the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (24.1) to running backs through three weeks.
- Xavier Worthy fully practiced on Wednesday and, barring a setback, should return this week, possibly without an injury designation at all. The return of Worthy could lead to an annoying rotation at wide receiver. However, Tyquan Thornton has been Kansas City’s best wideout and should still have a prominent role. In fact, he might have conceivably overtaken Marquise Brown on the depth chart with his stellar play. Thornton is tied for fourth in air yards share (53.6%) among wide receivers with at least 60 routes this year. Thornton has nine receptions for 171 yards (57.0 per game), 1.88 Y/RR and two receiving touchdowns, both on end-zone targets. Thornton’s 24.6-yard aDOT makes him a boom-or-bust pick. Nevertheless, the speedy wideout is cheap exposure to a possible shootout.
Week 4 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Omarion Hampton: 63.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Hampton handled all 14 of LA’s backfield’s rush attempts after Harris tore his Achilles in Week 3. He has a golden opportunity to follow up on his best rushing effort of the year in a plus matchup with a likely positive game script. The Giants have allowed 112.3 rushing yards per game at a blistering 5.18 yards per carry to running backs this season. We project Hampton to have 70.1 rushing yards against the G-Men.
Chris Olave: 5.5 Receptions – Higher
Kellen Moore has drastically changed Olave’s usage. He has a modest 8.8-yard aDOT, and he’s been spammed targets in the club’s pass-happy and hyper-fast offense. Olave has averaged an eye-popping 11.7 targets per game, resulting in 7.7 receptions per game. Olave has had double-digit targets every game this year, resulting in seven, six and 10 receptions. He should surpass 5.5 receptions for the fourth straight time to begin the season.
TreVeyon Henderson: 37.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Henderson’s line of 37.5 rushing yards leaves plenty of wiggle room for him to operate as the lead runner or change-of-pace option in New England’s backfield, and he should blow past that number if Stevenson and Gibson are in the doghouse and relegated to afterthought roles. Carolina has yielded 114.3 rushing yards per game at 5.72 yards per carry to running backs this season. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Henderson hits the over for 37.5 rushing yards on a single long carry against Carolina’s Charmin-soft run defense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
