Top 3 Fantasy Football Storylines of Week 9 (2025)

This week’s most intriguing storylines include a defense losing a stud player to an injury, a player with head-scratching playing time and an offense making a change at quarterback.

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Fantasy Football Storylines

How Will Denver’s Defense Perform Without Their Stud Cornerback?

Sadly, Patrick Surtain has a pectoral injury that’s expected to sideline him for multiple weeks. According to Sumer Sports, the Broncos are tied for third in expected points added (EPA) allowed per pass attempt this year. Surtain is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award winner. How much will his absence impact Denver’s pass defense?

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Broncos have faced the seventh-highest target rate (44.1%) wide and the 10th-highest to the slot (33.9%) this season. Will teams target the perimeter even more without Surtain on the outside, opposite Riley Moss? According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), second-year pro Kris Abrams-Draine has played the third-most snaps (35) at cornerback on the outside for the Broncos this season and yielded five receptions on five targets for 61 receiving yards.

Fortunately for the Broncos, they still have talent on defense. They can also get after the quarterback. According to Pro Football Reference, the Broncos have the third-highest pressure rate (29.0%) and the most sacks (36) this season.

As a result, C.J. Stroud is still only a bye-week fill-in, and a subpar one behind his shaky offensive line. However, Nico Collins is a more exciting starting option if he can clear the NFL’s concussion protocol.

Jaylin Noel is also a potential bye-week fill-in at flex or WR3 if Christian Kirk‘s hamstring injury sidelines the veteran for another week. Kirk didn’t practice at all last week, suggesting he wasn’t close to testing his hamstring or suiting up.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Noel had only a 45.8% route participation rate the previous two weeks. Still, he made the most of the door cracking open for him by amassing a 29.9% air yards share, 14.8% target share, 0.30 targets per route run, nine receptions (4.5 per game), 140 receiving yards (70.0 per game) and 3.18 yards per route run. Even without Kirk, Noel would have a low floor as a rotational wideout. Yet the rookie’s explosiveness and efficiency could result in another outburst, either in a limited role or in an expanded one at the expense of the underwhelming Braxton Berrios.

Will Dalton Kincaid Play More Against The Chiefs?

Dalton Kincaid had a 55.5% route participation rate in five games before Buffalo’s Week 7 bye. However, he had only a 32.0% route participation rate in the club’s blowout victory against the Panthers in Week 8.

Kincaid was sidelined for the Bills in Week 6 with an oblique injury, and he was a limited participant in practice the entire week leading up to the matchup against the Panthers in Week 8. According to Pro Football Reference, Kincaid played only 12 offensive snaps compared to 27 for Dawson Knox and 35 for Jackson Hawes against the Panthers.

Did the Bills limit Kincaid’s playing time with an eye on the matchup against the Chiefs? Did they play Knox and Hawes more because they’re superior blockers to Kincaid, and the team had a run-heavy game plan? Was Kincaid still banged up?

Kincaid’s practice participation warrants monitoring this week. If he doesn’t progress to full participation in practice, gamers could consider sitting him for a streamer. Otherwise, while Kincaid’s part-time usage lowers his floor, the game’s shootout potential makes him a high-upside player. The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites, and the game’s total is 52.5 points.

Among 38 tight ends with at least 100 routes this season, Kincaid is second in air yards share (20.7%), 18th in target share (15.3%), tied for second in targets per route run (0.25), seventh in receiving yards per game (51.7) and first in yards per route run (2.84). Imagine if the Bills are in a negative game script and forced to air it out to play catch-up. Kincaid could see a sizable uptick in route participation in that scenario and exceed his 9.9 half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game scored this season. Kincaid has a wide range of fantasy scoring outcomes this week, but he’ll be much easier to trust if he can log at least a full practice by Friday.

How Will Kevin O’Connell Call Minnesota’s Offense?

Carson Wentz will have season-ending shoulder surgery, erasing any doubt who will start at quarterback for the Vikings. J.J. McCarthy will almost certainly reprise the starting role this week against the Lions.

According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Vikings had a 49% situation-neutral pass rate and ran only 52 plays per 60 minutes on 77 plays in neutral game scripts in McCarthy’s two starts. In five subsequent games, they had an NFL-high 65% situation-neutral pass rate and ran 57 plays per 60 minutes on 127 plays in a neutral game script.

Will Kevin O’Connell trust McCarthy to throw more often in his return? The answer to that question could hinge upon the health of starting tackles Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw. O’Neill sat out last week with an MCL sprain. However, he had a 100% offensive snap share in Week 7, and he could be back this week after the extended break because of playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 8.

Darrisaw started last week, but he lasted only nine offensive snaps before calling it a night. He entered the contest with a knee injury that he was unable to play through. Obviously, having one or both of Minnesota’s starting offensive tackles would be helpful for McCarthy and the offense.

Additionally, the Vikings are 8.5-point underdogs, which would force KOC’s play-calling hand. He also might choose to pass early and often based on how others have attacked the Lions. Detroit has a pass-funnel defense. The Lions have faced a 64% situation-neutral pass rate this year, tied for the second-highest mark.

Of note, Jordan Addison was suspended for both games McCarthy started this season. He will award McCarthy another weapon along with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson hasn’t played well enough to warrant being used in fantasy lineups in McCarthy’s first start since Week 2. Jefferson is a quarterback-proof, must-start player.

Yet, Addison is also a reasonable starting option in 12-team leagues with three starting wideouts and at least one flex, even with the questions about McCarthy’s competency and KOC’s play-calling tendencies. Addison has the following stats in four games this season.

• 83.6% route participation rate
• 13.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
• 33.7% air yards share
• 18.8% target share
• 0.20 targets per route run
• 23.8% first-read rate
• 7.3 targets per game
• 5.25 receptions per game
• 77.3 receiving yards per game
• 2.09 yards per route run
• Two touchdowns
• 12.8 expected half-PPR points per game

Finally, Jefferson and Addison have a favorable matchup for wideouts against the Lions this week.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.