Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Since Week 6, Flacco has been the QB1 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked first in passing yards per game, 19th in yards per attempt, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, ninth in catchable target rate, and 16th in hero throw rate. Flacco should post another nice stat line this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the most passing yards per game, the 11th-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate, and ranked 18th in success rate per dropback.
Baker Mayfield is the QB13 in fantasy points per game. The injuries to the Bucs receiver room have hurt his fantasy stock, but he still has five QB1 outings in his last seven games. Among 42 qualifying passers, Mayfield ranks 13th in passing yards per game, 22nd in yards per attempt, 11th in passing touchdowns (tied), 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. Mayfield could produce fringe QB1 numbers this week, but it won’t be easy. Since Week 6, Buffalo has allowed the 12th-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-lowest passer rating, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback.
Jared Goff is the QB14 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings this season. While it hasn’t translated consistently to fantasy success, Goff has had an outstanding season so far. Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, 12th in passing yards per game, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and second in catchable target rate. Goff will face a Philly pass defense that since Week 6, has held passers to the 13th-lowest yards per attempt, the 14th-lowest passing yards per game, the lowest passing touchdowns, and has ranked 15th in CPOE. It would be a bleak matchup, BUT Philly also has a rusted patch of their armor that Goff can strike and reach the heart of their pass defense. Philly has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-most passing yards per game, and the 11th-highest passer rating to play action passing. Overall, Goff has utilized play-action at the sixth-highest rate (30.1%), but last week with Dan Campbell taking over the play call sheet they bumped that up to 51.5%. Play-action could carry Goff to another strong game against a formidable opponent.
J.J. McCarthy has had an up-and-down start to his career. Yes, in his three “healthy” starts, he has been the QB11, QB14, and QB13 in weekly scoring, but his passing accuracy needs to improve. Overall, among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt and 28th in CPOE, but he is also first in hero throw rate. The high-end moments are there, but he has to improve the play-to-play consistency. The Bears offer a wonderful matchup this week for McCarthy to possibly play up to his potential and post another QB1 outing. Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game and yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the second-highest CPOE.
Geno Smith is a QB2 that could easily find his way to QB1 production this week. Smith has two QB1 outings this season (QB4, QB6). Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 23rd in catchable target rate, and 34th in fantasy points per dropback. This week, he gets a cakewalk matchup against a Dallas secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.
In Marcus Mariota‘s four starts this season, he has one QB1 weekly finish (QB6) while averaging 5.2 rushing attempts and 27.5 rushing yards per game (one rushing score). Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Mariota ranks tenth in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth in hero throw rate. He should have success this week. Since Week 6, Miami has ranked 18th in yards per attempt while giving up the 11th-most passing touchdowns (tied), the tenth-highest CPOE, and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback.
Aaron Rodgers is the QB22 in fantasy points per game with only two QB1 outings this season. One of those games happens to be against Cincy. The last time they met, Rodgers was the QB7 for the week with 249 passing yards, a 67.6% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, and four passing scores. We’ll see if Rodgers can reproduce that type of stat line this week. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passing yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Among that same sample, he leads the squad with 65.2% of his passing yardage arising from yards after the catch and sits at 40th in aDOT (6.2). He has been a glorified point guard all season. Cincy could allow him to be John Stockton again this week. The Bengals have allowed the most missed tackles and yards after the catch. Since Week 6, Cincy has allowed the sixth-highest passing yards per game and passer rating, the second-highest success rate per dropback, and the third-most passing touchdowns (tied).
It looks like Davis Mills will get another start this week as C.J. Stroud continues to work through the concussion protocol. Last week, Davis Mills exploded as the QB1 in fantasy. He lit Jacksonville up for 292 yards through the air, two passing scores, 20 rushing yards, and a rushing score. Mills had only 6.49 yards per attempt and a 71.1% catchable target rate, but he also had a decent 53.3% highly accurate throw rate and a 6.7% hero throw rate. Mills could flirt with QB1 production again this week. Since Week 6, Tennessee has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fourth-highest success rate per dropback.
Since Week 6, Brissett has been the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks during this span, he has ranked second in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, ninth in passing touchdowns (tied), and 26th in catchable target rate. The immense passing volume for Arizona has hidden some per-dropback accuracy issues for Brissett, but he has still been a step up in quarterback play from Kyler Murray. This week, he could easily post another QB1 fantasy performance. Since Week 6, San Francisco has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, the tenth-most yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.
Fantasy Football Deep Plays to Consider
Jordan Love has failed to surpass 14 fantasy points in three of his last four games as the QB17 in fantasy points per game this season. Despite that fact, among 42 qualifying passers, Love still ranks 11th in passing yards per game, eighth in yards per attempt and passer rating, and 13th in highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate. Love should return solid QB2 value this week, but I’ll be surprised if he manages more than that. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and ranked 16th in success rate per dropback and yards per attempt allowed.
Jameis Winston will draw the start for New York this week with Jaxson Dart in the concussion protocol. Last year, in Weeks 8-15, Winston was the QB10 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked second in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per attempt, 31st in highly accurate throw rate, and 16th in hero throw rate. This week, he faces a Green Bay pass defense that, since Week 6, has been a slightly below-average matchup for quarterbacks, giving up the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and the fifth-fewest yards per attempt while also relinquishing the 12th-highest CPOE and sitting at 17th in success rate per dropback. Winston is a mid-range QB2 this week.
Sit’em
Trevor Lawrence has had a disappointing season under Liam Coen. He is the QB19 in fantasy points per game with only three QB1 outings. He needed two rushing scores in two of those games to spit out a QB1 weekly score, so we can chalk that up to flukiness. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 25th in CPOE, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. Lawrence is set for another struggle bus QB2 week. Since Week 6, the Bolts have allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passing yards per game and CPOE, and the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback.
Bryce Young has been a fantasy nothingburger this season. He hasn’t eclipsed 11 fantasy points since Week 6. Young has managed more than 13 fantasy points only twice this season. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 40th in yards per attempt, 39th in highly accurate throw rate, and 33rd in catchable target rate. He has a nice matchup this week, but I have zero faith that it’ll lead to fantasy production. Since Week 6, Atlanta has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-highest CPOE, and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.
Michael Penix is the QB29 in fantasy points per game with a below-average matchup incoming. Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 17th in passing yards per game, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, 40th in catchable target rate, and has the fourth-highest off-target rate. This week, he gets a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt and passing yards per game, but they have also held passers to the 12th-lowest adjusted completion rate and 11th-lowest success rate per dropback. Penix is just another middling QB2 this week.
No one should be starting Cam Ward in fantasy at this point. We have seen a long enough track record this season of Ward being a nothingburger for fantasy. Even if I had the inkling to have faith in Ward, it wouldn’t be this week. Since Week 6, Houston has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest passer rating and success rate per dropback. Ward is droppable in every redraft format.
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