The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have a 10-game slate due to bye weeks. Between bye weeks and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 10
Quarterbacks
Since assuming the starting role, Jaxson Dart has impressed. In six games where he threw 20+ times, he has finished as a QB1 in four of them. In the games he has started, he is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. It certainly helps that he is averaging just over 40 rushing yards in those games. He is the QB7 in total rushing yards (251) and tied for QB2 in rushing touchdowns (five) on the season, despite not starting until Week 4 of the season. Simply put, the rookie has been better for fantasy than on paper.
This week, the Bears host the Giants in a game that features a 46.5 over/under. The Bears are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They surrender an average of 248.3 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game.
Dart is still learning to process the game and the speed at which it occurs in the NFL. He continues to have a safe floor with his legs; he also has some upside potential with his arm. He is more suitably utilized in GPP contests for this slate.
In relief of Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota has finished as the QB6, QB17 and QB19. In that stretch, he is averaging just over 29 rushing yards per contest. His passing accuracy has been erratic, throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also only run for one score thus far. His rushing attempts are due for positive regression. His legs supply both a safe floor and scoring opportunities, and the matchup has its perks.
The Lions allow the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, making them more neutral from a gamescript standpoint. They also pressure the quarterback. Mariota could be forced into more scrambles while trying to rely on the pass in this game.
While Mariota has been prone to turnovers this season, this game could be a decent scoring affair. He has most of the Commanders’ weapons at his disposal and can run. Mariota is strictly a GPP option for this slate and can be best utilized for players who run multiple lineups.
Running Backs
Among qualified running backs, Travis Etienne is the RB20 in PPR points per game (14.2). He is also RB8 in red-zone touches and Jacksonville is going to find a way to that portion of the field by necessity, if nothing else. Etienne is averaging 14.8 rushing attempts and 3.4 targets per game. He has turned that into five yards per carry, two rushing scores, 111 receiving yards and an additional score via the air. Etienne’s usage, especially in the passing game, could see an uptick in the absence of Travis Hunter.
The Texans are certainly no pushover on defense. They allow the 20th-most fantasy points to the running back position on the season. This is where narrative street comes into play. With an over/under of 37.5 and the Texans favored by one point, the expectation is for the Jaguars to be trailing. Etienne is more than a capable pass-catcher and could be leaned on in a negative game script. This value selection is based on both price and game script. In DraftKings’ full PPR format, I expect Etienne to exceed his salary.
Etienne works as an RB2/Flex play for GPP contests this week. With the lower over/under, I recommend avoiding him in cash games unless paying down at another position.
The Seahawks’ running back rotation has been a source of frustration this season. However, a new trend emerged last week that should be on fantasy managers’ minds. Kenneth Walker was gifted the red-zone work last week over Zach Charbonnet, who had been mostly handling those duties. Last week, Walker posted a 54% snap share within the red zone, as opposed to Charbonnet’s 37% snap share. He handled all three of the Seahawks’ red-zone rush attempts. Thus far, despite the ugly (for fantasy) split, Walker is averaging 14 touches for 72 scrimmage yards on a per-contest basis.
The Cardinals allow the 18th-most fantasy production to the position. Again, a less-than-neutral opponent. This selection is based on volume and a recent trend that may lead to more work in the high-value plays. Over the last several weeks, the Cardinals have allowed the eighth-most explosive runs, a feat Walker is more than capable of.
At cost, Walker represents meaningful volume and a trend towards higher value touches. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Wide Receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR14 in targets (68) on the season. He has secured 47 of those targets for 540 yards, good for 16th overall among wide receivers. He has also scored twice. While not flashy and without a high ceiling, Robinson continues to be usable in both seasonal leagues and DFS in PPR scoring formats. He is a floor player and a prayer for a touchdown to increase his value per dollar in salary.
Jaxson Dart has already been mentioned as a value play; Robinson is the Great Value portion of the stack. He is not Malik Nabers, but he has been reliable from a volume standpoint.
The Bears allow the second-most fantasy production to wide receivers this season. They currently allow 161 receiving yards and 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game to the position.
Robinson is best stacked with Dart in GPP contests this week.
Between suspension and essentially a rookie quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, Jordan Addison has posted modest numbers for fantasy this season. He has two games with over 100 yards and three below 50 yards entering this week. His two scores this season salvaged his receiving yard output. Still, to date, he only has the one game with McCarthy under center. In that game, he had a 16% target share and three deep targets.
The Ravens allow the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They allow 160.4 receiving yards and 1.3 receiving touchdowns per game. Aaron Jones (questionable), Jordan Mason and McCarthy himself can all run the ball; the pass part of the formula must be accounted for. Justin Jefferson operating all over the formation creates softer coverage for Addison.
Addison is either big-play or touchdown reliant to pay off at his salary. With his role and the softer coverage, both could occur in this matchup. The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens are going to put points up, and it is up to McCarthy and his troupe to try and keep pace, forcing a more pass-heavy script.
Addison is volatile for this slate and should be used as an upside WR2 in GPP contests for this slate.
Tight Ends
David Njoku has been subpar this season. Between the emergence of Harold Fannin Jr. and inconsistent quarterback play, it is not the season initially projected for him. However, with rookie Dillon Gabriel under center, Njoku is seeing a 15% target share in this struggling offense. He is averaging 44 receiving yards per contest and five red-zone targets with the rookie manning the helm.
The Jets allow the 15th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Njoku has been lined up across the formation and thus represents some versatility not necessarily tied to his official position. This game features a 37.5 over/under. The rookie quarterback may have to rely on his arm if the Jets get out in front.
Njoku is not a lock, but Fannin popped up on the injury report mid-week (never a good sign) with a hamstring issue. If Fannin does not go or is limited, it leaves Njoku as the primary target for that area of the field, bolstering his opportunity.
Njoku is a boom/bust option in a mid-scoring affair where fantasy players are just hoping for the touchdown. Therefore, he is a GPP option best utilized in GPP contests.
The last two seasons, Mark Andrews has been propped up by touchdowns. Once a favorite target of Lamar Jackson, he has now become a plodder who provides an above-average size in the red zone. Statistically, that is not such a bad thing. Andrews has drawn six red-zone targets this season, resulting in three scores. While his days of 80+ yards and a score may be behind him, he is still a presence to be considered, especially close to the chalk.
The Vikings look to be competitive this week, but allow the 12th-most fantasy points to the tight end position.
With Jackson under center, tight ends become viable once beyond the 20, if not to get into that range. Andrews represents scoring upside at an affordable salary. He is an upside play that can be stacked in cash games or run naked in GPP contests, due to his potential scoring appeal.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
