The game with the highest total on Sunday’s NFL DFS main slate is one of the suggested game stacks. It will justifiably be chalky. However, the second suggested game stack could fly under the radar and is appealing. The Week 14 core studs and values/punts are littered with players from the two suggested game stacks. Still, two players from other contests are also featured in those sections.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 14
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bills vs. Bengals
Spread/Total: BUF -5.5/52.5 Points
The Bills are home favorites with a slate-high implied total of 29.5 points, an ideal recipe for DFS output for a quarterback. Josh Allen isn’t any quarterback, either. Unsurprisingly, he’s a lineup optimizer darling, projecting as the QB1 and the highest projected scorer at all positions on both DFS outlets this week, with the QB4 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings and the QB1 value score at FanDuel.
The reigning NFL MVP has a tasty matchup. According to Sumer Sports, the Bengals have permitted the second-most expected points added (EPA) per pass. Moreover, per Pro Football Reference, the Bengals have coughed up the sixth-most DraftKings points per game (20.7) to quarterbacks this year and tied for the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (20.1) permitted to them.
Allen is more than a matchup-driven suggestion. His ceiling is sky-high, especially at home. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Allen has had the following stats in six games at home.
- 73.8% completion rate
- 1,659 passing yards (276.5 per game)
- 8.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A)
- 13 passing touchdowns
- Four interceptions
- 212 rushing yards (35.3 per game)
- Eight rushing touchdowns
- 31.4 DraftKings points per game
- 31.3 FanDuel points per game
Both offenses can hang points in bunches, and Cincinnati’s ability to push the Bills makes Allen an appealing DFS selection in all game types.
Khalil Shakir isn’t an appealing standalone option or a bring-back from a Bengals stack. He’s only interesting when stacked with Allen. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Shakir has a 71.1% slot rate this season. Meanwhile, DJ Turner, Cincinnati’s best healthy defender by a wide margin, has played 32 snaps in the slot, with a season-high of nine in the slot in Week 12. Therefore, Shakir should avoid Turner’s sticky coverage.
In Joe Burrow‘s Thanksgiving return from a turf toe injury, Zac Taylor wasted no time cutting his stud quarterback loose. The Bengals had a 5.8% pass rate over expectations (PROE) in Week 13, the fourth highest of the week. A 5.8% PROE would be the fifth-highest full-season mark.
Burrow’s 2025 sample of work isn’t worth digging into. Instead, focusing on how Burrow has played against the Bills and in losses is more worthwhile. Per StatHead, Burrow had 25.3 DraftKings points, 20.8 DraftKings points, 22.3 FanDuel points and 20.8 FanDuel points in two career meetings against the Bills, in Week 9 of the 2023 season and the Divisional Round of the 2022 season, respectively.
Gamers also shouldn’t be deterred by the Bengals being underdogs. Burrow has logged 19.52 DraftKings points per game and 18.03 FanDuel points per game in 18 losses since 2022. Burrow is projected as the QB3 this week and a sweet GPP pick.
If Burrow hits his ceiling in GPPs, it likely means he brought both of his stud wideouts with him. Tee Higgins has played only one full game with Burrow this year. Yet, Burrow’s big-bodied field-stretcher had a superb season on the receiving end of Burrow’s passes last year. In 12 games in 2024, Higgins had the following stats.
- 85.1% route participation rate
- 11.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 36% air yards share
- 23.1% target share
- 0.24 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 29.8% first-read rate
- 73 receptions (6.1 per game)
- 911 receiving yards (75.9 per game)
- 2.12 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- 10 receiving touchdowns
- 15 end-zone targets
- 18.8 DraftKings points per game
- 15.7 FanDuel points per game
Higgins needs to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol, but gamers shouldn’t sleep on him as an inclusion in a game stack in GPPs.
Unfortunately for Chase Brown, Samaje Perine cut into his playing time last week. Nevertheless, Brown still has a nifty role and a desirable matchup. In Week 13, Brown handled 15 of Cincinnati’s backfield’s 29 rush attempts (51.7%) and had a 52.1% route participation rate compared to just 20.8% for Perine. As a result, Brown should be game-script proof.
Brown is also in a groove. He’s had at least 100 scrimmage yards in six consecutive games. Brown is also a competent pass-catching weapon, with 4.0 receptions per game, 23.9 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown in 12 games this year. Brown reeled in all seven of his targets from Burrow last week.
Brown has a mouthwatering matchup this week. The Bills are tied for the third-most EPA allowed per rush. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (26.3) and FanDuel points per game (23.3) to running backs this year. Moreover, they’re tied for the ninth-most DraftKings points allowed per game (26.7) and have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (25) to running backs since Week 9. Brown is projected as the RB5, with the RB1 value score at both DFS providers this week. He’s an outstanding option in all game types.
Game: Packers vs. Bears
Spread/Total: GB -6.5/44.5 Points
The Packers and Bears don’t have a high game total, and the spread isn’t slight. Nevertheless, it’s an intriguing game to stack, even with only skinny stacks. Green Bay is the more appealing side of this contest, as evidenced by more featured players on the table above.
Jordan Love is a volatile signal-caller, with three games without a touchdown in his previous six, but three, two and four passing touchdowns in the other three games. Love has two games with 330-plus passing yards and three passing touchdowns this season, one with 292 and two and another with 234 and four.
Romeo Doubs is only a DFS suggestion if Matthew Golden or Jayden Reed remain out, and Dontayvion Wicks is only a suggestion if both Golden and Reed are out. Otherwise, the receiving room will be too crowded to feel good about Doubs or Wicks.
Yet, both were included as suggestions because of the matchup. Even though Chicago’s secondary has gotten healthier, they’ve coughed up the most DraftKings points per game (40.7) and FanDuel points per game (33.1) to wide receivers since Week 9.
A shift to their coverage tendencies is also notable for Wicks. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Bears had a 26.7% man-coverage rate through Week 7. Since Week 8, their 32.1% man-coverage rate ranks ninth-highest in the NFL. Wicks has 0.31 TPRR and 2.26 Y/RR on 54 routes against man coverage this season and just barbecued Detroit’s man-heavy defense for six receptions, 94 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns on seven targets on Thanksgiving, adding a six-yard run for good measure.
Josh Jacobs could be Green Bay’s highest DFS scorer if the 6.5-point-favored Packers handle their business and operate in a positive game script most of the contest. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Packers have a 53% rush rate on 335 plays when leading by at least three points, excluding the final two minutes of the first half. Additionally, the Bears are tied for the sixth-lowest PROE (-1.0%) faced this season.
Jacobs’s matchup doesn’t jump off the page. However, the Bears have allowed 93 rushing yards per game at an eye-catching 4.74 yards per carry, 5.5 receptions per game and 36 receiving yards per game to running backs in their previous five games. They only allowed two touchdowns to running backs in that period, possibly throwing gamers off the scent of how well running backs have moved the ball against them lately.
Luther Burden and Colston Loveland are ascending in Chicago’s passing-game hierarchy. Among Bears with at least 20 routes since Week 9, Burden is second in receiving yards per game (39.3), first in targets per route run (0.24), second in receptions per game (3.25) and second in yards per route run (1.96), and Loveland is first in receiving yards per game (58), third in targets per route run (0.22), first in receptions per game (4.0), first in yards per route run (2.42) and first in receiving touchdowns (three).
Both players have room for growth just by playing more, as Loveland had a 60.3% route participation rate, and Burden had a 51.6% route participation rate during that period. Fortunately, they can both provide DFS value at their bargain salaries, even if their roles don’t expand this week.
Their value is also bolstered this week by Green Bay’s coverage tendencies. The Packers have played zone coverage at the third-highest rate (78.4%) this season. Burden has 0.26 TPRR and 2.54 Y/RR on 108 routes against zone this year, and Loveland has 0.20 TPRR and 2.16 Y/RR on 163 routes against zone. Burden and Loveland are especially enticing selections at DraftKings, where they have the WR3 value score and the TE1 value score, respectively.
Core Studs
- James Cook is projected as the RB3, with the RB4 value score at DraftKings and the RB6 value score at FanDuel. There hasn’t been a better matchup for running backs in DFS than facing the Bengals this season. Furthermore, Cincinnati has allowed 120.25 rushing yards per game, 5.01 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 4.75 receptions per game, 46 receiving yards per game, two receiving touchdowns, 30.4 DraftKings points per game and 28 FanDuel points per game to them since Week 9. Cook has also been a man on fire since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye, averaging 139.7 scrimmage yards per game and 2.5 receptions per game with four touchdowns in six games.
- Ja’Marr Chase is the WR2, with the WR7 value score at DraftKings and the WR2 value score at FanDuel. Cincinnati’s No. 1 wide receiver had a 46.7% air yards share, 30.4% target share, 0.30 TPRR, 14 targets, seven receptions and 110 receiving yards in Burrow’s return last week. The Bills have been up and down against top wideouts this year, allowing outbursts to Drake London (34.8 DraftKings points and 26.8 FanDuel points), Zay Flowers (31.1 DraftKings points and 24.6 FanDuel points) and Stefon Diggs (27.6 DraftKings points and 19.6 FanDuel points) as well as a smattering of rock-solid outings to others.
- Tyler Warren is the TE3, with the TE5 value score at DraftKings and the TE1 value score at FanDuel. He’s in an eruption spot in a Charmin-soft matchup. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (22.4) and tied for the second-most FanDuel points per game (17.9) allowed to tight ends since Week 9. In addition, the Jags have played Cover 3 (32.1%), Cover 4 (15%) and Cover 6 (20%) 67.1% of the time this year, and Warren has 0.26 TPRR and 2.68 Y/RR on 208 routes against those coverage types in his rookie campaign.
Value Plays/Punts
- Dalton Kincaid was limited most of last week before he sat out in Week 13 with a hamstring strain. He’s opened this week with limited participation in practice, and there’s some risk he’ll face a snap limitation this week, even if he’s healthy enough to play. Nevertheless, Kincaid’s matchup against the Bengals is too tasty to ignore. Cincinnati has allowed the most DraftKings points per game (23.7) and the most FanDuel points per game (19.3) to tight ends this year, 6.1 more DraftKings points per game and 5.5 more FanDuel points per game than the second-worst defense against tight ends. Kincaid has also been brilliant this year, albeit with only a 47% route participation rate. Still, Kincaid has a 19.5% air yards share, 14.8% target share, 0.27 TPRR, 3.6 receptions per game, 56 receiving yards per game, 3.37 Y/RR and four touchdowns in eight games this season. Kincaid’s upside is worth chasing at his salary at both DFS providers, and he’s an even more exciting selection if he can log a full practice by Friday. If he’s out, Dawson Knox is a stellar punt.
- Christian Watson is the WR12 with the WR6 value score at DraftKings, and he’s the WR9 with the WR6 value score at FanDuel. The speedster has a 75.2% route participation rate, 41% air yards share, 18.1% target share, 0.22 TPRR, 23.5% first-read rate, 3.5 receptions per game, 60.5 receiving yards per game, 2.39 Y/RR and three receiving touchdowns in six games this season. Watson can also benefit from Chicago’s shift to more man coverage. Watson has 0.29 TPRR and 2.08 Y/RR on 48 routes against man coverage this year after recording 0.34 TPRR and 3.51 Y/RR on 76 routes against man in 2024 and 0.32 TPRR and 2.44 Y/RR on 66 routes against it in 2023.
- Kenneth Walker has rattled off 74, 101, 111 and 70 scrimmage yards in his previous four games, with precisely three receptions in three straight games. Zach Charbonnet has vultured goal-line work, leading to only one Walker touchdown in his past nine games. Regardless, Walker has home-run ability, a favorable matchup and a likely positive game script, with the Seahawks laying seven points.
Week 14 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
James Cook: 96.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Cook has eclipsed 96.5 rushing yards in back-to-back games, seven of 12 contests and six of Buffalo’s eight wins this year. Additionally, according to StatHead, five running backs have cleared that threshold against the Bengals this season. We project Cook to have 98.3 rushing yards against Cincinnati.
Brenton Strange: 41.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Warren isn’t the only tight end who should have success in the AFC South battle between the Jaguars and Colts. Strange has 0.21 TPRR, 48.9 receiving yards per game and 2.18 Y/RR in seven games this season, clearing 41.5 receiving yards five times, including in both games since returning from the injured reserve (IR). Indianapolis has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (72.1) to tight ends this season and 71.5 receiving yards per game to them since Week 9.
Kenneth Walker: 12.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Walker has surpassed 12.5 receiving yards in three straight games and four of his past five. Since Week 9, Walker has had a 41% route participation rate, 9.8% target share, 0.23 TPRR, 2.4 receptions per game, 22.8 receiving yards per game and 2.00 Y/RR.
Walker should stay hot against Atlanta’s coverage tendencies. Atlanta has played zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate (77.1%) and single-high coverage at the second-highest rate (64%) this season. Walker has 0.21 TPRR and 1.79 Y/RR on 89 routes against zone and 0.17 TPRR and 1.62 Y/RR on 63 routes against single-high coverage this season. We project Walker to tally 15.3 receiving yards on Sunday.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
