Welcome to Week 17. Known to the initiated as FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK!
In case you’re wondering, yes, the Primer will be here next week as well to help everyone who still has active fantasy leagues and delayed championship weeks. If you’ve made it this far, we only have a little way left to travel. That pot of prize money is in sight. Let’s bring it home.
Welcome to the Week 17 Primer. Enjoy.
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Fantasy Football Primer
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- LAC -1.5, O/U 39.5
- Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| C.J. Stroud | QB | QB2 |
| Woody Marks | RB | RB2 |
| Jawhar Jordan | RB | RB4 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB4 |
| Nico Collins | WR | WR1 |
| Jayden Higgins | WR | WR4 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | WR5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | WR6 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR | WR6 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE1 |
Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Justin Herbert | QB | QB1/2 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB2 |
| Kimani Vidal | RB | Out |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | WR3 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | WR4 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | WR3 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week, with Kimani Vidal injured, Omarion Hampton saw his snap rate increase to 53.2% with a 33% route share and a 6.9% target share. Hampton finished with 17 touches and 95 total yards. Since his Week 14 return, Hampton has averaged 16 touches and 75.6 total yards. Since Week 14, Hampton has generated a wonderful 9.1% explosive run rate, but he has only had a 14% missed tackle rate and 1.50 yards after contact per attempt. With many runs, unless he can find daylight, he’s simply getting what is blocked. Hampton could produce as a solid RB2 this week despite the tough matchup with his volume and touchdown equity in the offense. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Since Week 3, Dalton Schultz has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game with an 18.5% target share, 48.3 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and an 18.7% first-read share. In those 13 games, Schultz has had three touchdowns, nine red zone targets, and five deep targets. CJ Stroud should lean on Schultz this week. Since Week 10, the Bolts have allowed the fourth-highest yards per target to tight ends while ranking 17th in fantasy points per game.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Justin Herbert is the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Last week’s QB4 performance in weekly scoring was his first QB1 outing since Week 9. It was the first time that he had passed for at least 300 yards since Week 7. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert ranks 14th in yards per attempt, fifth in passing touchdowns (tied), sixth in highly accurate throw rate, and 12th in hero throw rate. I’ll be surprised if he finishes as a QB1 this week against Houston’s nasty pass defense. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-fewest passing yards per game while generating the fifth-best pressure rate.
Quentin Johnston ripped Dallas apart last week as the WR11 in weekly scoring with 104 receiving yards and a score. Overall, Johnston is the WR29 in fantasy points per game with six top 24 weekly scoring finishes. Since Week 12, Houston has utilized single high at the second-highest rate (63%). Against single high, Johnston has ranked third on the team with an 18.6% target share, tied for first on the team with 1.73 yards per route run, and had a 22.8% first-read share (second on the team). Johnston should fight with Keenan Allen for the team lead in targets this week. The horrible matchup makes him only a flex play this week, though. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
After seeing his route share dip in Week 15, last week, Oronde Gadsden saw his route share sit at 69.7%. Since Week 6, Gadsden has been the TE17 in fantasy points per game with a 15.8% target share, 53.3 receiving yards per game, 1.98 yards per route run, and a 17.7% first-read share. In those ten games, he has ten red zone targets, two touchdowns, and eight deep targets. Gadsden is back on the streaming radar this week. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 17th in yards per target.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
C.J. Stroud is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this season. I thought he could squeak out another last week against the Raiders, but Stroud disappointed with only 187 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and 5.3 yards per attempt. That was the third time this season that he has been held under 200 yards passing. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud ranks 19th in passing yards per game and yards per attempt, 31st in highly accurate throw rate, and 28th in hero throw rate. This looks like another low-end QB2 week for Stroud. Since Week 12, Los Angeles has ranked 15th in yards per attempt while allowing the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, the third-lowest passer rating, and the 13th-lowest CPOE.
Woody Marks is set to return to his workhorse role this week. His ankle has improved, as evidenced by his full practices all week. In Weeks 10-14, Marks averaged 20 touches and 68.8 total yards as Houston’s lead back. Among 48 qualifying backs, he ranks 31st in explosive run rate and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Those paltry rankings in per-touch efficiency highlight the continuing fact that Marks is a volume-based RB2 play. Sadly, he returns just in time to face an improved Chargers run defense. Since Week 12, the Chargers have allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-lowest rushing success rate. Marks could still post RB2 numbers this week if he sees his customary 15-20 touches and gets in the end zone, but he won’t finish with a pretty stat line.
Ladd McConkey is the WR32 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, he has had four top 24 weekly finishes. Since Week 12, Houston has utilized single high at the second-highest rate (63%). Since Week 8, against single high, McConkey has led the team with a 20.8% target share with 1.94 yards per route run and a 15.9% first-read share. McConkey will have a tough time this week against Jalen Pitre in the slot. Since his Week 13 return, Pitre has allowed only a 45.5% catch rate and 26.3 passer rating in slot coverage. Since Week 13, Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers. McConkey is a WR3/flex this week.
Keenan Allen‘s production has fallen off the table since Week 7. He hasn’t had more than 9.3 PPR points or 53 receiving yards in any game since. Since Week 12, Houston has utilized single high at the second-highest rate (63%). Since Week 8, against single high, Allen has had only a 16.8% target share with 1.53 yards per route run and a team-leading 23.2% first-read share. Justin Herbert could look his way early and often in this game, but it’s fair to question how effective Allen will be. Allen is a low-end flex play only. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
It’s impossible to trust Jayden Higgins as a flex play this week. Higgins has disappointed in each of the last three weeks with nice matchups. Yes, this is partially a CJ Stroud issue, but also Dalton Schultz is the clear WR2 in this offense. Higgins hasn’t had more than three receptions or 34 receiving yards in a game since Week 13. This week, he faces a Bolts’ pass defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Higgins.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
- GB -2.5, O/U 40.5
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Doubtful |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | QB1/2 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | RB1/2 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | RB3/4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | WR2 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | WR5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | WR6 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | TE2 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | TE3 |
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Malik Willis | QB | QB1/2 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | RB1/2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | RB3 |
| Christian Watson | WR | WR3 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | WR4 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | WR4 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | WR5 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR5 |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
**Josh Jacobs was a warrior and played through injury last week. He had limited practices all week in preparation for Week 17. That is an improvement upon last week, when Jacobs was unable to practice all week. I’m expecting Jacobs to play this week and handle the bulk of the work. Yes, there are concerns here, but he should still lead the backfield in touches and be the back that Green Bay counts on when they are near the goal line. His touchdown equity in this offense alone makes him a must-play if he is active.**
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Tyler Huntley will draw the start for Baltimore this week. Last week, he filled in admirably for Lamar Jackson, completing nine of ten passes with 6.5 yards per attempt. In his only start this season, Huntley finished as the QB16 in weekly scoring, completing 77.3% of his passes with 186 yards through the air, one passing touchdown, eight carries, and 53 rushing yards. This season, Huntley has had only a 6.7 aDOT, which has helped his accuracy numbers, but he has still mustered solid marks with an 80.9% catchable target rate and a 4.3% hero throw rate. Huntley is a QB2 that could flirt with QB1 production this week against a downgraded Green Bay pass defense. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 13th-highest CPOE.
Malik Willis will draw the start for Green Bay this week with Jordan Love sidelined (concussion). Last week, in relief of Jordan Love, Willis completed nine of his 11 passes for 121 yards through the air, 11.0 yards per attempt, and one passing touchdown. Willis also added ten rushing attempts and 44 yards on the ground. Willis has been impressive with his limited passing volume this season. Willis has had a 71.4% highly accurate throw rate, a 92.9% catchable target rate, and a 7.1% hero throw rate. Willis’s dual-threat ability makes him a strong QB2 that could easily be a QB1 this week. Since Week 12, Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the second-most deep passing yards per game, and the tenth-highest passer rating to deep passing.
Zay Flowers is the WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 27.6% target share, 69.5 receiving yards per game, 2.48 yards per route run, and a 33.2% first-read share. Flowers has been awesome this year. If he had scored more than two touchdowns this season, his fantasy standing would be even better. He has only eight red zone targets and has drawn 17 deep targets. Since Week 12, Green Bay has had the fourth-highest two-high rate (63.7%). Against two high, his numbers have dipped some, but remain strong with a 25% target share, 1.95 yards per route run, and a 31.7% first-read share. Flowers’ ceiling and floor will be impacted this week, depending upon who is under center, but he should still be the clear focal point for the passing attack against a slipping Green Bay pass defense. Since Week 10, the Packers have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, Christian Watson returned to the lineup with a 67.7% route share, a 25% target share, and a 26.3% first-read share. Watson was running wide open on multiple occasions last week and had numerous missed opportunities. It could have been a huge game for him, but sadly, it didn’t work out that way as he finished with two receptions and 17 receiving yards. Watson’s target volume remains a concern this week, but he should lead the Green Bay passing attack and has the big play upside to get the job done with limited volume. Since Week 11, Watson has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with six red zone targets and a team-leading ten deep targets. Since Week 11, Baltimore has had the second-highest single high rate in the NFL (60.8%). Since Week 11, against single high, Watson has led the team with a 24.5% target share, 2.53 yards per route run, and a 32.1% first-read share. The Ravens have had issues defending perimeter wide receivers, which also helps Watson’s case. Since Week 12, Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Romeo Doubs had a 25% target share and 26.3% first-read share that he turned into 84 receiving yards and a touchdown. Sadly, his route share dipped to 54.8%, and his 35% target per route run rate last week is unsustainable. Doubs could have a decent game this week against a pass defense that has struggled against perimeter wide receivers, but the coverage matchup isn’t in his favor. Since Week 11, Baltimore has had the second-highest single high rate in the NFL (60.8%). Since Week 11, against single high, Doubs has had an 11.7% target share, 1.29 yards per route run, and a 13.2% first-read share. Those aren’t encouraging numbers at all. It does work in his favor that since Week 12, Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Doubs is a deep league flex only.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Last week, Jayden Reed led the team with an 83.9% route share as he had a 12.5% target share, 35 receiving yards, and a 15.8% first-read share. Reed did draw two red zone targets, though. With Malik Willis under center this week and the limited passing volume that is sure to accompany him, I’m sitting Reed this week. Baltimore has been strong against slot receivers. Since Week 12, they have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to the position.
Mark Andrews‘ 2025 season has been an utter disappointment as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. He has a 15.9% target share with 25.3 receiving yards per game, 1.31 yards per route run, and a 19.9% first-read share. Andrews has had 13 red zone targets and two deep targets. He hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 3, and that was the only time he has done so this season. Andrews is a sit again this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest yards per target to tight ends.
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
