Week 15’s top storylines carry heightened significance since it’s the start of the fantasy football playoffs. The most significant storyline starts with who will start at quarterback for one team. Another focuses on the potential for an ancillary weapon to emerge as a viable fantasy option. Finally, a backfield might have a better matchup than it appears.
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Fantasy Football Storylines
Who Will Start at Quarterback for the Commanders?
Jayden Daniels made his return in Week 14 from a three-week absence due to a dislocated left elbow. Daniels left the blowout loss early after landing on his elbow when he was blocked following an interception. Dan Quinn said he could have returned to the game, but he wouldn’t provide an update on his playing status for Week 15.
Given the scare on the elbow and the Commanders being officially eliminated from playoff contention, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Marcus Mariota start this week. The veteran quarterback has made six starts this year, finishing as the QB6 in Week 3, the QB17 in Week 4, the QB9 in Week 8, the QB13 in Week 10, tied for the QB9 in Week 11 and the QB3 in Week 13. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Giants have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (21.8) to quarterbacks since Week 10. Mariota would be a viable streaming option if he starts. However, it’s challenging to trust Daniels as a starter after he exited early last week.
Deebo Samuel played in all six of Mariota’s starts and had a ho-hum 13.6% air yards share, 19.4% target share, 0.23 targets per route run (TPRR), 27 receptions (4.5 per game), 261 receiving yards (43.5 per game), 1.73 yards per route run (YPRR), three touchdowns, 10.1 half-PPR points per game and 12.5 expected half-PPR points per game. He’s an acceptable WR3/Flex.
Terry McLaurin played in only three of those games and was limited to a 52.2% route participation rate because of injuries. Still, McLaurin was a baller in those contests, tallying the following stats:
- 52.2% route participation rate
- 14.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 39.9% air yards share
- 21.8% target share
- 0.37 TPRR
- 24.7% first-read rate
- 13 receptions (4.3 per game)
- 224 receiving yards (74.7 per game)
- 3.80 YPRR
- 2 touchdowns
- 13.6 half-PPR points per game
- 16.4 expected half-PPR points per game
McLaurin is a no-brainer WR2 in a tantalizing matchup this week. The Giants have yielded the fifth-most half-PPR points per game (31.3) to wide receivers since Week 10.
Is Anyone Fantasy Relevant Behind Ja’Marr Chase if Tee Higgins is Out?
Tee Higgins missed Week 13 with a concussion, and he suffered another concussion against the Bills in Week 14. The independent neurologist inexplicably cleared him after repeated instances of Higgins slamming his head off the ground and immediately clutching it. It’s almost certain Higgins will miss the rematch with the Ravens.
Mike Gesicki had only four targets, two receptions and 19 scoreless yards against the Ravens without Higgins in Week 13. However, with Higgins in and out of the medical tent in Week 14, Gesicki converted his six targets into six receptions, 86 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Gesicki had just a 45.9% route participation rate against the Bills and a 39.6% route participation rate against the Ravens. He’s a niche player, creating a low floor.
Still, Gesicki thrived without Higgins in 2024. In five games without Higgins last year, Gesicki logged the following stats:
- 59.9% route participation rate
- 9.1-yard aDOT
- 22.5% air yards share
- 18.3% target share
- 0.28 TPRR
- 22.6% first-read rate
- 26 receptions (5.2 per game)
- 312 receiving yards (62.4 per game)
- 2.40 YPRR
- 2 touchdowns
- 11 half-PPR points per game
- 13.2 expected half-PPR points per game
Gesicki is in the boom-or-bust TE1 range.
Is Chicago’s Running Back Matchup Actually Good?
Tennessee’s running backs just thrashed the Browns. Tony Pollard toted the rock 25 times for 161 yards and two touchdowns, and Tyjae Spears had eight carries for 19 scoreless yards. Their production didn’t end there, either. Spears had two receptions for 28 receiving yards (on four targets) against the Browns in Cleveland in Week 14.
Cleveland’s defense isn’t entirely inept against running backs, despite last week’s trainwreck. Still, they’ve allowed 120.4 scrimmage yards per game, 3.8 receptions per game, two rushing touchdowns, one receiving touchdown and 17.7 half-PPR points per game to running backs in their previous five games.
Meanwhile, the Bears want to run the ball. Chicago is 20th in pass rate over expectation (-2.4% PROE) since Week 10. The game script should also be favorable for them. The Bears are 7.5-point favorites this week. D’Andre Swift is a legitimate top-20 back this week. In his last five games, he’s recorded 74.6 rushing yards per game, 5.11 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, two receptions per game, 12.8 receiving yards per game, 10.7 half-PPR points per game and 13.4 expected half-PPR points per game.
Ideally, gamers would have a better option than Kyle Monangai. The rookie’s lack of pass-catching chops will make it difficult to produce even Flex-worthy or emergency RB2 numbers against the Browns. Nevertheless, Monangai has four rushing touchdowns and 60 scrimmage yards per game in his past five games, making him a touchdown-or-bust option for desperate gamers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.