A low-end fantasy starter at quarterback might have graduated to a higher tier with an eye-popping performance on Sunday. Additionally, two pass-catching weapons balled out on Thursday Night Football.
Unfortunately, two offenses put up dud performances that might have ended fantasy seasons in Week 15.
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Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways
Let’s dive into the biggest takeaways from Week 15.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Surprises
Trevor Lawrence Might be the Promised Prince
From Week 11 through Week 14, Trevor Lawrence was the QB4 in total points (77.2) and tied for the QB7 in points per game (19.3). He’d earned middle-tier to lower-tier QB1 fantasy signal-caller status with his recent play, and then he exploded on Sunday.
He’s the QB1 for Week 15, pending Monday Night Football results, logging 44.3 fantasy points. Lawrence passed for 330 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also took zero sacks and led the Jaguars in rushing yards (51) and scored a rushing touchdown. Lawrence is on fire, and gamers must trust him going forward, even in a challenging matchup against the Broncos in Denver in Week 16.
Lawrence’s stellar play also makes Jakobi Meyers a locked-and-loaded WR2, Brian Thomas Jr. a viable WR3/Flex and Brenton Strange a defensible TE1. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Meyers led the team in routes (36) in Week 15, Strange was second (30) and Thomas was third (29). Meyers and Thomas were tied for the team lead in targets, with seven. Meyers reeled in five receptions for 71 scoreless yards. Thomas had four receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Strange had only three targets, one reception and 26 scoreless yards. Nevertheless, his route participation and the quality of Lawrence’s play keep him in the low-end TE1 mix. Strange could also benefit from a more fantasy-friendly matchup in Week 16 than Jacksonville’s wide receivers.
Mike Evans is Back With a Vengeance
Mike Evans barbecued the Falcons for six receptions and 132 receiving yards on 10 targets in a losing effort on Thursday Night Football. It might not have seemed like he was eased back from his injury, but he wasn’t a full-time player. Instead, per the Fantasy Points data suite, Evans had a 65% route participation rate. Chris Godwin‘s 92.5% route participation rate paced the Buccaneers.
Emeka Egbuka‘s route participation rate cratered to 55%. Jalen McMillan returned and commanded a 47.5% route participation rate. Godwin’s route participation rate was outstanding, but his 11.8% target share, 0.11 targets per route run (TPRR), four receptions and 20 receiving yards left much to be desired. Fortunately for gamers who used him in Week 15, Godwin scored a receiving touchdown and completed the octopus with a two-point conversion. The good and the bad leave Godwin in the WR3/Flex range.
Evans was the big winner on Thursday night. Despite his underwhelming route participation rate, Evans’ other underlying data was silly. He put up the following numbers against the Falcons:
- 17.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 171 air yards
- 48.4% air yards share
- 29.4% target share
- 0.38 TPRR
- 38.1% first-read rate
- 5.08 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 1 end zone target
Evans has already done enough to warrant WR2 treatment.
Egbuka’s route participation rate was terrifying. His floor is much lower with Evans and McMillan back in the fold. However, Egbuka also had a 14.9-yard aDOT, 104 air yards, a 29.5% air yards share, 20.6% target share, 0.32 TPRR and 23.8% first-read share. The rookie’s otherwise tasty underlying data led to four receptions for 64 yards.
A full cupboard for Baker Mayfield enhances Mayfield’s appeal in fantasy leagues, putting him back in the low-end QB1/streamer realm. The crowded wide receiver room reduces Egbuka’s floor, but it could allow him to get back on track after a dry spell when he was stretched too thin as their No. 1 weapon. He’s a WR3/Flex.
Kyle Pitts was a One-Person Wrecking Crew
Kyle Pitts had a week-winning effort on Thursday Night Football. He had 11 receptions for 166 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Pitts has often done his best work against Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers, but his Week 15 showing was a career day.
Pitts has unquestionably benefited from Drake London‘s absence. Atlanta’s No. 1 wide receiver didn’t practice at all for Week 15 because of his knee injury, casting doubt on how close he actually is to returning. Still, the toothpaste is out of the tube with Pitts. Since Week 11, Pitts has logged the following stats:
- 86.4% route participation rate
- 8.0-yard aDOT
- 295 air yards
- 26.7% air yards share
- 23.1% target share
- 0.25 TPRR
- 27% first-read rate
- 7.4 targets per game
- 5.6 receptions per game
- 75.4 receiving yards per game
- 3 touchdowns
- 1 end-zone target
- 13.9 half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game
- 12.3 expected half PPR points per game
Gamers can’t expect Pitts to smash every week the rest of the season. Still, he is a no-brainer starter the rest of the year.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Disappointments
Joe Burrow Didn’t Have Fun on Sunday
Joe Burrow turned some heads last week with his comments, and then he had an embarrassing performance against the Ravens. Burrow completed 25-of-39 passes for 225 yards, with zero touchdowns, two interceptions and three sacks taken. Gamers who used Burrow as a QB1 in their fantasy football playoffs might be onlookers the rest of the way.
Ja’Marr Chase‘s day wasn’t ruined — 16 targets, 10 receptions and 132 receiving yards. Chase Brown PPR scammed his way to fantasy relevance with 53 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards and seven receptions. The Bengals were shut out, though. Brown also had an ugly backfield split with Samaje Perine. Brown played 47 snaps, ran 29 routes and had 13 carries compared to 34 snaps, 14 routes and 14 carries for Perine. Brown is stuck in RB2 territory, and his floor is somewhat scary if Burrow and the offense are stuck in the mud, especially with Perine stealing work.
Tee Higgins was in the concussion protocol last week. He had two limited practices before sitting out Friday’s practice. Higgins’ playing status for Week 16 is unclear. Gamers who survived Burrow’s dud are likely stuck holding their noses and hoping for a turnaround against the Dolphins in Week 16. Chase is an elite WR1. Brown is an RB2. Higgins is a WR2 if he can clear the NFL’s concussion protocol, but it’s difficult to get excited about anyone other than Chase in Cincinnati’s offense.
Carolina’s Offense Still Stinks
The NFL is a week-to-week league. The Panthers exemplify that expression. They eradicated any thoughts that their pre-bye victory against the Rams in Week 13 was a sign of things to come. Instead, they scored 17 points against the Saints in Week 15, and Bryce Young had a pitiful 163 passing yards and one passing touchdown. Young has seven games with fewer than 170 passing yards and two more with fewer than 200. The third-year pro has more games with fewer than 170 passing yards than games with over 200 yards. He’s eclipsed that mark only three times this year.
Young’s lackluster passing is a nightmare for Tetairoa McMillan‘s fantasy outlook. McMillan led the skill-position players in snaps (48) and routes (28). He was also tied for the team lead in targets (four). However, McMillan had just two receptions for 25 scoreless yards. Elite underlying data on a small pie will lead to disappointing showings, such as Sunday’s.
Jalen Coker ran 26 routes and had four targets, four receptions, 60 receiving yards, one touchdown and a fumble lost on the game’s final play — a last-ditch lateral play. The Panthers are at home against the Buccaneers in a crucial game for deciding the NFC South in Week 16. Tampa Bay has a pass-funnel defense, and big-bodied pass-catchers, Kyle Pitts and David Sills, gave them trouble in Week 15. McMillan is a volatile WR3, and Coker could be a desperation Flex play.
Circling back to Tampa Bay’s defense, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Buccaneers have faced a 4% pass rate over expectation (PROE) since Week 11. Tennessee’s 6.3% PROE is the highest in the NFL, and the Buccaneers have faced the fourth-highest PROE this year at 4%. The rushing opportunities could be limited for Carolina’s running backs, and Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard are embroiled in a full-blown timeshare.
Dowdle played 34 snaps, ran 14 routes, toted the rock 16 times and garnered one target. He parlayed his usage into 49 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, one reception and five receiving yards. The touchdown saved Dowdle’s day. Hubbard played 24 snaps and had eight carries, 29 scoreless rushing yards, one target, one reception and nine scoreless receiving yards.
Dowdle is a touchdown-dependent RB2, and Hubbard should probably be glued to benches.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
