DraftKings and FanDuel both have four-game NFL DFS slates that feature Saturday’s and Sunday’s games. Since both also offer two-game main slates for Saturday and Sunday, this piece will include a game stack from each day. Still, the suggested picks were made with the four-game slate in mind. The suggested studs and values/punts have five players from the two featured game stacks, but someone from one of the other two games also made the values/punts section.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Divisional Round
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bears vs. Rams
Spread/Total: LAR -3.5/48.5 Points
The Bears will likely need a big performance from Caleb Williams to keep up with Los Angeles’s high-powered offense. Williams’ matchup isn’t too shabby, either. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Rams have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (19.7) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (19.5) to quarterbacks since Week 15 among the remaining playoff teams.
Bryce Young just posted 264 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 24 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown against the Rams in the Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, Williams erupted for 361 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 20 rushing yards in a frantic comeback victory against the Packers last week. Williams’ ceiling is worth chasing in GPPs this week.
Williams’ top pass-catching weapon is included below. However, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden are also enticing choices. Odunze missed the final five weeks of the regular season. He last suited up for the Bears on November 18, 2025, before returning for the Wild Card game last Saturday. The second-year wide receiver was third on the Bears and second among wide receivers on the team in route participation rate (69.8%) last week, and he was second in air yards share (24.4%) and air yards (123), despite having only an 8.0% first-read rate. Odunze has big-play potential on his vertical usage, namely when Williams extends plays with his legs and looks for his big-bodied wideout.
Burden had only a 62.3% route participation rate last week. He had the third-highest route participation rate among Chicago’s wideouts. Still, Burden was tied for second on the team in first-read rate (16.0%). Moreover, in the dynamic rookie wide receiver’s last five games, he’s logged the following stats.
- 59.5% route participation rate
- 8.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 18.0% air yards share
- 16.7% target share
- 0.25 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 24.5% first-read rate
- 31 targets (6.2 per game)
- 24 receptions (4.8 per game)
- 366 receiving yards (73.2 per game)
- 3.00 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- One touchdown reception
Burden has the dynamism to turn a non-full-time role into a DFS-friendly showing, and his salary isn’t prohibitive to fitting in the studs. The matchup is also favorable for Odunze and Burden. The Rams have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (38.4) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (31.2) to wide receivers since Week 15 among teams still playing.
The Rams have allowed the most DraftKings points per game (30.0) and the most FanDuel points per game (27.3) to running backs since Week 15 among the Divisional Round participants. D’Andre Swift shares the backfield with Kyle Monangai, but the elder running back is the lead. Since Week 15, Swift toted the rock 63 times for 304 yards (60.8 per game) and five touchdowns, with a 43.8% route participation rate, nine targets (1.8 per game), eight receptions (1.6 per game) and 81 receiving yards (16.2 per game). Monangai had just 42 rush attempts, zero rushing touchdowns and a 33.5% route participation rate during that period. Swift is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs since he could thrive if the underdog Bears operate with a positive game script.
The Bears are the mystery team that’s a better fantasy matchup for quarterbacks and wideouts than the Rams. As a result, this game has shootout potential. LA’s most appealing pieces are highlighted among the core studs. Yet Davante Adams is a high-upside piece of the passing attack, and Tyler Higbee and Xavier Smith are viable punt-salaried contrarian picks, too.
Adams returned from a three-game absence and had a 76.7% route participation rate, 42.3% air yards share, 31.0% target share, 0.39 TPRR, five receptions, 72 receiving yards and 2.18 Y/RR against the Panthers. Adams also had a team-high 41.4% first-read rate against Carolina. Furthermore, he led the NFL in receiving touchdowns (14) and end-zone targets (27) in the regular season, despite missing three games.
Higbee ran 20 routes versus 23 for Colby Parkinson in the Wild Card Round, and the latter had the game-winning touchdown grab. However, Higbee and Parkinson had identical three targets and two receptions, and Higbee turned his into 45 receiving yards while Parkinson had 34. Instead of chasing Parkinson’s touchdown, using Higbee as a pivot at a cheaper salary in double- or triple-stacks is viable in GPPs this week.
Smith wasn’t targeted last week. The diminutive speedster was tied for fourth on the team in route participation rate (46.5%), though. Smith could also benefit from an eye-catching split. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Bears faced 152 dropbacks this year with at least two tight ends on the field and held quarterbacks to 6.59 yards per pass attempt, 4.04 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), five passing touchdowns and seven interceptions on those dropbacks. Chicago coughed up 7.87 yards per pass attempt, 6.97 ANY/A, 31 passing touchdowns and 16 interceptions on 491 dropbacks with just one tight end or less on the field against them this year. It’s difficult to find truly contrarian picks with any semblance of upside on a four-game slate, but Smith fits the bill.
The lineup optimizer projects Kyren Williams as the RB3 at both DFS providers, tying for the RB1 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 salary) at DraftKings and owning the RB2 value score at FanDuel. He’s a sweet leverage play away from LA’s passing attack. The Rams are favored, and the Bears are an unimposing matchup on the ground.
Chicago has allowed 132.6 rushing yards per game and 4.60 yards per carry since Week 15. It also doesn’t matter if Sean McVay chooses to lean into personnel groupings with one or fewer tight ends or those with multiple tight ends. The Bears coughed up 5.05 yards per carry on 265 rush attempts against personnel with one tight end or less on the field this season, and they ceded 4.88 yards per carry on 215 rush attempts with at least two tight ends on the field against them.
Blake Corum could be a nuisance for Williams. Nevertheless, in LA’s last five games, Williams had 76 rush attempts compared to 55 for Corum. Williams remains the more desirable running back to use from the Rams.
Game: Broncos vs. Bills
Spread/Total: DEN -1.5/46.0 Points
RJ Harvey had a robust role in Denver’s backfield in their last four games. He handled 55 of the backfield’s 80 rush attempts (68.8%), 50% of the team’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line and paced the backfield in route participation rate (42%) in those games. Harvey recorded 46.5 rushing yards per game, two rushing touchdowns, 16 targets (4.0 per game), 10 receptions (2.5 per game), 109 receiving yards (27.3 per game), one receiving touchdown, 15.6 DraftKings points per game and 14.1 FanDuel points per game in that four-game period.
The Broncos are favored after opening the week as underdogs. Harvey could be busy if the game script is neutral or favorable against Buffalo’s lousy run defense. The Bills have allowed 107.4 rushing yards per game, 5.42 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.6 receptions per game, 35 receiving yards per game, one receiving touchdown, 23.6 DraftKings points per game and 21.3 FanDuel points per game to running backs since Week 15.
James Cook and Buffalo’s running game found the sledding tough against Jacksonville’s stout run defense in the Wild Card Round. Cook is the NFL’s 2025 rushing champion, and the Bills are unlikely to be deterred from trying to get him back on track this week.
Cook is a versatile runner. His versatility can come in handy this week since the Broncos are more vulnerable against man/gap concepts than zone rushes. The Broncos allowed only 3.62 yards per carry, a 1.9% explosive run rate, two rushing touchdowns and a 45.8% success rate on 155 zone rushes this season. However, they allowed 4.09 yards per carry, a 2.9% explosive run rate, eight rushing touchdowns and a 49.1% success rate on 175 man/gap runs. Meanwhile, Cook rattled off 786 rushing yards, 4.94 yards per carry, eight rushing touchdowns and a 52.8% success rate on 159 man/gap rushes this year.
Josh Allen is a monster in the playoffs. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s averaged 259.4 passing yards per game and 50.1 rushing yards per game with 26 passing touchdowns, four interceptions and nine rushing touchdowns in 14 career playoff starts. Per StatHead, Allen scored 392 DraftKings points (28.0 per game) and 377.5 FanDuel points (27.0 per game) in the playoffs. The Broncos have a talented pass defense, and the Bills are banged up at wide receiver. Nonetheless, Allen has a sky-high ceiling.
Khalil Shakir tied his career high with 12 targets last week, and he secured all of them for a career-high 12 receptions and 82 scoreless receiving yards. Shakir leads the Bills in route participation rate (71.4%), target share (20.6%), first-read rate (24.8%), receptions (84 at 4.9 per game) and receiving yards (801 at 47.1 per game) this year, and he has four receiving touchdowns and a 69.1% slot rate. Pat Surtain could shadow Shakir, but that’s unlikely because of how often Shakir plays in the slot. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Surtain played only 71 of 864 defensive snaps this year in the slot.
Brandin Cooks will probably see some Surtain on the perimeter. Regardless, the veteran is ascending at the ideal time for the Bills. In Buffalo’s last five games without resting critical starters, Cooks led the team in air yards share (39.5%) and had 2.8 targets per game, 0.20 TPRR, seven receptions (1.4 per game), 159 receiving yards (31.8 per game) and 2.27 Y/RR. He also had a 30% slot rate during that period, and Cooks could log a big play or two if he draws Riley Moss in coverage. Per PFF, Moss saw the most targets (115), tied for the third-most receptions allowed (66) and allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (815) among cornerbacks this season.
The Bills designated Curtis Samuel to return from the injured reserve (IR), and he’s logged two full practices. They’ll still need to activate him from the IR to have him available on Saturday. After losing both Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to torn ACLs in the Wild Card Round, Samuel could immediately step into a meaningful role. Davis ran 17 routes and Shavers ran 14 last week. Cooks and Keon Coleman can soak up some of the vacated routes, and the team could also call up Mecole Hardman or Stephen Gosnell from the practice squad. Samuel has more experience with Allen, though. The 29-year-old wide receiver also had three targets, three receptions, 68 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Broncos in the Wild Card Round last season. Samuel’s floor is serving no meaningful role and posting a bagel. The risk might be worth taking for some gamers in GPPs this weekend at his punt salary.
Core Studs
- Puka Nacua is projected as the WR1 at both DFS outlets, and he’s projected as the highest scorer at DraftKings and the second-highest scorer at FanDuel, regardless of position. Adams’ return last week didn’t cool Nacua’s heater. Instead, Nacua had a 42.7% air yards share, 38.1% target share, 34.5% first-read share, 16 targets, 10 receptions, 111 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, three rush attempts, 14 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown against the Panthers. In Nacua’s last five games with Adams, he scored 26.2 DraftKings points per game and 22.3 FanDuel points per game.
- Colston Loveland is the TE1 this week, with the TE1 value score at FanDuel. The rookie tight end has exploded down the stretch, eclipsing 90 receiving yards in his past three games. In those games, he had an 81.3% route participation rate, 40.0% air yards share, 30.1% target share, 0.34 TPRR, 39.7% first-read rate, 12.3 targets per game, 8.0 receptions per game, 107.3 receiving yards per game, 2.95 Y/RR, two touchdowns, 24.4 DraftKings Points per game and 20.4 FanDuel points per game. Loveland’s salary hasn’t kept pace with how well he’s played lately.
- Matthew Stafford is the QB1 at both DFS sites, with the QB2 value score at DraftKings and the QB1 value score at FanDuel. Chicago allowed 266.4 passing yards per game, nine passing touchdowns, 22.7 DraftKings points per game and 22.7 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks since Week 15. Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards per game (278.4) and passing touchdowns (49) this season. He’s equipped to terrorize Chicago’s lousy pass defense.
Value Plays/Punts
- Dalton Kincaid has the third-best value score among Flexes at DraftKings and the fourth-best value score among Flexes at FanDuel, making it enticing to build two-TE rosters. Among 59 tight ends with at least 125 routes this season, Kincaid is eighth in air yards share (18.6%), first in targets per route run (0.27), first in yards per route run (2.98), second in yards per target (11.09), fourth in yards per reception (14.26), tied for eighth in touchdown receptions (six), first in DraftKings points per route run (0.70) and first in FanDuel points per route run (0.60). Even in a limited role (45.3% route participation rate), Kincaid scored 10.8 DraftKings points per game and 9.2 FanDuel points per game. His route participation rate was up to 56.4% last week, and the Bills could crank it up even higher this week after losing two more receivers to injuries in last week’s game after already putting Josh Palmer on the IR during the week.
- Pat Bryant is mispriced. His salary shouldn’t be lower than Troy Franklin‘s or Marvin Mims‘s. In Bryant’s four healthy games (Week 13, Week 14, Week 16 and Week 18) since Denver’s Week 12 bye, he’s second among the team’s wideouts in route participation rate (68.2%), second in air yards share (24.2%), second in target share (16.3%), second in first-read rate (20.0%), second in targets per route run (0.21), second in targets per game (6.3), second in receptions per game (4.0) and second in receiving yards per game (36.8). Bryant isn’t a world-beater, but his salary is too low relative to his role and production.
- I might be taking some liberties by including Woody Marks among the values/punts, but he’s a value relative to running backs, and gamers must use at least two of them on both DFS providers. In his last four games that he was healthy enough to reach at least a 45% snap share, Marks had 74 rush attempts, 299 rushing yards (74.8 per game), one rushing touchdown, a 40.2% route participation rate, nine targets (2.3 per game), five receptions (1.3 per game), 12 receiving yards (3.0 per game), 12.8 DraftKings points per game and 12.2 FanDuel points per game. Conversely, the Patriots have allowed 22.8 DraftKings points per game and 20.8 FanDuel points per game to running backs in their last five games.
Divisional Round Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Josh Allen: 19.5 Completions – Higher
Allen took a profit last week instead of big-game hunting. According to PFF, he had a 7.8-yard aDOT and 88.2% adjusted completion rate on 35 attempts, completing 28 passes against the Jaguars. Allen surpassed 19.5 completions in four of Buffalo’s five losses this year, and he did so in four of their six wins decided by one score. He’s also averaged 23.6 completions per game in the playoffs. We project him to complete 20.7 passes against the Broncos on Saturday.
Kyle Juszczyk: 15.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
George Kittle had a snap share under 30% in Week 1 and last week because of injuries, and he didn’t play in Week 2 through Week 6 and Week 17. In those eight games, Kyle Juszczyk had a 26.0% route participation rate, 5.0-yard aDOT, 18 targets (2.3 per game), 0.21 TPRR, 17 receptions (2.1 per game), 163 receiving yards (20.4 per game), 1.87 Y/RR, an 18.4% backfield alignment rate, 11.5% wide alignment rate, 35.6% slot alignment rate and 34.5% inline alignment rate. We project him to have 18.3 receiving yards this week.
Colston Loveland: 57.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
I highlighted Loveland’s late-season excellence above. He’s been in a full-time role in the last three weeks, and he’s gone over 57.5 receiving yards in three straight games and four of his last five. We project him to have 60.7 receiving yards against the Rams.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
