The 2025 NFL season is over, and now comes the part that quietly flips fantasy football leagues on their heads: NFL Free Agency. Every March, we focus on the shiny new landing spots for incoming veterans. The bigger edge, though, is spotting the players already on rosters who could get their roles nuked by one signing, one trade, or one “we need to get younger” cap decision.
On the FantasyPros Football Podcast, Joey P, Jake Ciely, and Andrew Erickson ran through a list of names and position groups that feel especially fragile heading into the 2026 offseason. Some are young players who didn’t solidify their footing and/or who have soft NFL Draft capital. Others are veterans with cap hits that scream “restructure… or else.”
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Fantasy Football Players Who Could Lose Starting Jobs
Below is the fantasy football cheat sheet version: who’s at risk, why it matters, and how you should be thinking about them for 2026 fantasy football.
This one is bleak, and not in the “he’s a buy-low” way.
Ciely’s concern is simple: Minnesota may already be over it. McCarthy lost his rookie development year to injury, then looked raw in Year 2. That’s a brutal combination when your team is trying to win now and your fan base just watched Sam Darnold leave and win a Super Bowl elsewhere.
If the Vikings add a veteran starter, trade for competition, or pivot entirely at quarterback, McCarthy’s dynasty value can fall through the floor. And there’s a fantasy ripple, too: the more unstable Minnesota’s QB situation gets, the more it messes with Justin Jefferson‘s weekly ceiling.
Fantasy angle: If you roster McCarthy in superflex dynasty, this is a “get out before the headline” situation, not “hope it improves in camp.”
Marks had counting stats, but Erickson basically called them empty calories.
Houston gave him volume, but the efficiency profile was ugly: poor yards per carry, low success rate, few explosives, and minimal missed tackles forced. Worse, his supposed calling card (receiving) never really showed up. Add in nagging injuries and the reality that he’s a Day 3 back, and you get a player who can be replaced without a second thought.
Erickson also floated a nightmare scenario: Houston chasing a high-end upgrade like Breece Hall. Even a less flashy move (veteran replacement for Nick Chubb, plus a rookie) could push Marks into a messy committee.
Fantasy angle: Marks is the kind of back who looks tradable on paper right now. If you can sell him as a “young starter,” do it.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
Croskey-Merritt had moments, but Washington feels like a team that won’t be satisfied with “moments.”
Ciely’s point: even if the Commanders lose veterans from the room, they have cap space and flexibility. It’s hard to imagine them entering 2026 with Croskey-Merritt as a true bell cow. The more likely outcome is a split backfield, even if he technically “leads” it.
Fantasy angle: He’s not necessarily a zero. He’s just extremely unlikely to become the workload monster some hoped for.
This is the classic veteran RB squeeze: aging efficiency, huge cap hit, and an offensive identity shift.
Erickson noted that Kamara’s rushing efficiency hit career lows, and his receiving role dipped hard (a major deal for his fantasy value). In a Kellen Moore-style offense that doesn’t automatically funnel targets to the RB, Kamara needs either insane volume or elite scoring chances to stay afloat.
The Saints can always cap-wizard their way out of trouble, but the bigger question is usage. Even if he stays, New Orleans could add a complementary back (Rico Dowdle was mentioned as a fit) and pull Kamara into a more situational role.
Fantasy angle: Kamara might “survive” free agency and still lose value. That’s the trap.
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) and the Bills wide receiver room
Buffalo is the poster child for “please get your quarterback some help.”
Ciely’s take wasn’t subtle: the Bills need an actual WR1, and when they add one, it pushes everybody else down a peg. That’s not necessarily a death sentence for Shakir as a real-life player, but it can absolutely change his fantasy profile from “target leader” to “secondary option.”
If Buffalo adds a true alpha (via free agency, trade, or the draft), Josh Allen‘s passing ceiling rises… and the current receiver room’s target security drops.
Fantasy angle: Shakir could become a better real-life receiver with less defensive attention, while becoming a harder weekly fantasy start.
Stefon Diggs (WR – NE) and the Patriots pass-catcher room
The Patriots feel like a team that knows what it needs: a premium pass catcher to grow Drake Maye.
Erickson pointed out how shaky the “alpha” situation is long term, especially when you consider money, age curves, and contracts. He specifically flagged a potential trade target: A.J. Brown. If New England lands a true No. 1, it’s bad news for the fantasy viability of the complementary pieces, and it could even alter Diggs’ role if the team tries to get younger and cheaper.
Fantasy angle: The moment the Patriots add an alpha, it’s a target consolidation play. Great for the new guy. Risky for the current group.
New coaching staffs don’t care about your old depth chart.
Ciely argued Mooney could be one of the easiest “quiet losers” of the offseason if Atlanta shifts scheme (more 12 personnel, more tight ends, more run emphasis). In that world, the WR2 job matters less, and Mooney becomes very replaceable. Even a mid-tier speed addition could squeeze him.
Fantasy angle: If you’re drafting Falcons receivers, you want clarity. Mooney currently offers the opposite.
Ridley is teetering on that scary cliff where “veteran volume” turns into “veteran nobody wants to pay.”
Erickson noted the disconnect last year: plenty of air yards and usage, not enough conversion. With a new staff potentially looking to reshape the offense, Ridley’s contract becomes a decision point. If he’s cut, you’re suddenly hoping for a decent landing spot, and those don’t always appear for 31-year-old wideouts.
Fantasy angle: Once a receiver hits the “could be cut to save real money” stage, their fantasy floor gets shaky fast.
This is a tight end-specific risk: coaching tendency.
Ciely expects the Giants to target a tight end who can catch and create mismatches. If they bring in a proven option (Isaiah Likely was the example), Theo Johnson‘s path closes quickly. The critique here is blunt: athletic traits are nice, but drops and inconsistency get you replaced.
Fantasy angle: Tight ends can be role-driven. If you lose the role, you lose everything.
Ferguson isn’t “done.” He’s just trending toward “annoying.”
Erickson’s argument hinged on target competition. When the Cowboys have their alphas, Ferguson’s weekly production slides into the bland middle. Touchdowns covered up some cracks, and that’s not something you want to bet on year over year.
Fantasy angle: If Dallas keeps its top target earners, Ferguson becomes a low-ceiling, matchup-based TE1/TE2 type.
Fantasy Football Takeaways
- J.J. McCarthy is a true volatility asset. If Minnesota adds serious QB competition, his value can crater quickly.
- Woody Marks screams “replaceable volume.” If you can sell him before Houston adds backs, take it.
- Croskey-Merritt looks like a committee back waiting to happen, even if he keeps the “starter” label.
- Kamara’s bigger risk might be role erosion, not just getting cut. Pay attention to Saints RB additions.
- Bills WRs are fragile because Buffalo is almost forced to add a WR1. Great for Josh Allen, risky for everyone else.
- Patriots pass catchers change instantly if New England lands an alpha (A.J. Brown-style move).
- Mooney and Ridley sit in the danger zone where new coaching and contract math can erase fantasy relevance.
- Theo Johnson is one signing away from disappearing. Jake Ferguson is one “alpha stays” decision away from being a boring TE bet.
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