Risk tolerance is a huge part of fantasy football. Sometimes, it involves handling players with injury histories. Other times, risk tolerance centers on the track record of players. The most risk-averse players in fantasy leagues lean heavily into players with multi-year histories of playing well, and they won’t be the manager who scoops up an ascending player who reaches another level. The less risk-averse gamers might get a case of rookie fever and chase more young players who’ve only flashed potential but haven’t put together a full season or multiple full seasons of production. There’s a happy medium to be struck, and the following three players are youngsters who’ve done enough that gamers should be sold on their 2026 outlook, and there’s potential for them to kick things up a notch.
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3 Players You Should Already Believe In (2026 Fantasy Football)
Parker Washington (WR – JAC) | Underdog ADP: 72.9/WR37
Parker Washington began last year as an afterthought in Jacksonville’s wide receiver group. Brian Thomas Jr. was coming off a fantastic rookie season. The Jaguars traded up to draft two-way rookie Travis Hunter off a Heisman Trophy-winning campaign, and they signed Dyami Brown in free agency.
Washington was undeterred and forced his way into the mix. He was a sixth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, putting him in a position where he’s had to fight to stay on an NFL roster and claw for every opportunity he’s received. Washington has emerged as a needle-mover for the Jaguars.
The organization traded for Jakobi Meyers last year to fill the void left by a season-ending injury to Hunter, and now Hunter is ticketed for a full-time role at cornerback and a part-time gig at wide receiver. Washington, BTJ, and Meyers are the top wide receivers on the team, and Washington might be the best of the bunch.
He was Jacksonville’s most productive wide receiver last year, and his underlying metrics were impressive. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 91 wide receivers with at least 250 routes in the regular season and playoffs, Washington was 37th in air yards share (27.6 percent), 33rd in target share (18.0 percent), tied for 17th in targets per route run (0.25), 43rd in first-read rate (20.6 percent), tied for 29th in end-zone targets (eight), 11th in yards per route run (2.36), 16th in first downs per route run (0.104), tied for 11th in half-point per reception (half-PPR) points per route run (0.41) and tied for 12th in expected half-PPR points per route run (0.48).
Washington’s efficiency and per-route numbers were legitimately elite. However, his 62.5 percent route participation rate slightly depressed his surface stats. Fortunately, Washington finished the season in a robust role, logging an 82.1 percent route participation rate in Jacksonville’s last three games, sandwiched between Meyers’ 91.1 percent and BTJ’s 76.8 percent. Furthermore, Washington demonstrated he’s not a slot-only wide receiver, with a 37.0 percent alignment rate wide in those games. Gamers should believe in Washington as a locked-in WR3 with the upside to be a WR2 in 2026.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) | Underdog ADP: 116.3/TE10
Dalton Kincaid’s career highs for targets (91), receptions (73), and receiving yards (673) came as a rookie in 2023. However, he also played a career-high 16 games that season. Unfortunately, Kincaid missed four games in 2024 and five in 2025. Kincaid tore his PCL in 2024, and he tweaked it in 2025.
Kincaid is once again bypassing surgery after seeking multiple opinions. The knee provides some pause in selecting Kincaid, but it also likely contributed somewhat to Kincaid’s route participation rate (45.7 percent) last year. Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes are superior blockers, so they’ll still cut into Kincaid’s playing time, but a healthier Kincaid should tick up at least a bit.
Kincaid’s underlying data was elite last year. Among 53 tight ends who ran at least 150 routes last season, Kincaid was sixth in average depth of target (9.1-yard aDOT), eighth in air yards share (18.2 percent), first in targets per route run (0.27), first in yards per route run (3.04), second in yards per target (14.21), first in first downs per route run (0.147), first in half-PPR points per route run (0.60) and first in expected half-PPR points per route run (0.46).
Including the playoffs, Kincaid was eighth in half-PPR points per game (9.6). He’s fairly valued if he stays healthier this year and doesn’t see a meaningful increase in route participation rate this season. Kincaid has upside to smash his ADP if he can push closer to a 70 percent route participation rate.
Keaton Mitchell (RB – LAC) | Underdog ADP: 167.7/RB50
Gamers shouldn’t count on Keaton Mitchell turning into a league-winning bell-cow running back with the Chargers. He moves on from the Ravens to join the Chargers in free agency.
Mitchell will compete for touches with Kimani Vidal behind starting running back and 2025 first-round draft pick Omarion Hampton. I don’t have delusions of Mitchell overtaking Hampton on the depth chart, and Mitchell’s smaller stature also probably prevents him from being a workhorse if Hampton were hurt.
However, Mitchell is an ideal match with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Mitchell is a burner. McDaniel maximized De’Von Achane, a running back of similar stature to Mitchell, with the Dolphins. McDaniel was also the run game coordinator for the 49ers from 2017 through 2020 and the club’s offensive coordinator in 2021, though Kyle Shanahan called plays. San Francisco’s rushing attack successfully utilized speedsters Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon — to a lesser extent and in different ways — and Raheem Mostert during McDaniel’s tenure, and Mostert also had a massive season with the Dolphins under McDaniel’s watch.
Mitchell is McDaniel’s next speedy change-of-pace weapon, and the speedy running back already has an impressive production profile under his belt. As an undrafted free agent in 2023, Mitchell saw action in eight games, toting the rock 47 times and chipping in 11 targets, nine receptions, and 93 receiving yards. Among running backs with at least 45 rush attempts in 2023, Mitchell was first in yards per carry (8.43), second to Achane in yards before contact per attempt (2.87), first in yards after contact per attempt (5.55), first in explosive run rate (14.9 percent), first in success rate (68.1 percent), first in stuff rate (31.9 percent) and first in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.47). He ripped off 56.6 rushing yards per game and two rushing touchdowns on just 6.7 attempts per game.
Sadly, Mitchell fully tore the ACL in his left knee in December of his rookie season. He was basically a non-factor in 2024. Mitchell demonstrated he’s still got tons of juice as a change-of-pace weapon behind Derrick Henry in 2025.
Mitchell carried the ball 59 times for Baltimore last season. Among 63 running backs with at least 55 rush attempts last year, Mitchell was first in yards per carry (5.78), first in yards before contact per attempt (4.47), 63rd in yards after contact per attempt (1.31), first in explosive run rate (10.2%), 24th in success rate (52.2 percent), tied for 22nd in stuff rate (42.4) and tied for 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.12). Mitchell isn’t built to churn out hard yards after contact, and he didn’t recapture his ability to shake would-be tacklers from before reconstructive knee surgery. Nevertheless, Mitchell’s explosion was on display last season.
In his change-of-pace role, he had only 26.2 rushing yards per game. Mitchell didn’t make much of a fantasy impact, averaging 3.9 half-PPR points per game with 4.0 expected half-PPR points per game. Still, Mitchell is such a perfect stylistic fit in McDaniel’s offense that he warrants drafting as a bench stash.
If McDaniel finds 8-to-10 touches for him a game instead of the 5.9 touches per game Mitchell had for the Ravens last year, Mitchell can be a bye-week RB2 and useful Flex with contingent upside if Hampton is hurt. As a result, Mitchell is more valuable than the typical handcuff, even if he doesn’t likely have a path to a workhorse role. Finally, Mitchell is especially exciting in best ball, where gamers don’t need to guess when he’ll score a long touchdown and provide value in a given week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.