Every year, the dynasty fantasy football landscape is dramatically shifted on two occasions. The biggest is the NFL draft, but not far behind it in terms of scale is the NFL free agency.
Now that the dust has settled and we’re just waiting for some veterans to sign deals, we can take a step back and consider the biggest risers and fallers from free agency.
- 2026 NFL Draft Guide
- 2026 NFL Draft Scouting Reports
- Best Fantasy Football Tools
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts
Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Nobody was ever questioning Justin Jefferson’s talent, but it was hard not to question the surrounding situation after J.J. McCarthy did his best to disprove the quarterback whisperer moniker that Kevin O’Connell had been labeled with.
In the past, O’Connell had turned quarterbacks like Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens into reasonable options who sustained Jefferson’s value. However, McCarthy was so bad that the team had to remove middle-of-the-field passes because he failed to see defenders and kept turning the ball over.
That middle-of-the-field area is where so many layup points come in PPR formats, and it’s essential for accumulating yards. Justin Jefferson saw the sixth most targets but averaged only 9.4 half-PPR points, making him the WR37. Kyler Murray might not be the league’s best middle-of-the-field passer, due to his height, but he’s a far more competent quarterback than McCarthy.
Murray will be able to keep the Vikings on the field for longer, which will help to create more plays per game and, in turn, provide Jefferson with more high-value targets. Some were questioning his fantasy value among the elite wide receivers, but Murray’s addition keeps Jefferson firmly in the top three.
Luther Burden III ( WR – CHI)
The Bears made a big show of faith in their young receiving room when they traded DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills and then made no noteworthy additions in free agency.
The debates will continue about who is the better receiver between Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, but the fact remains that they both have a strong opportunity. Odunze’s value has steadily fallen since last season, when people expected a full-blown breakout, but injuries hampered his second season.
Rookie wide receivers since 2011 with 50+ targets and a yards per route run rate over 2.30, per PFF routes run data: https://t.co/QzEfym1FGP pic.twitter.com/Vx9wLtD165
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) January 19, 2026
Meanwhile, Burden is a firm fixture in the top 18 receivers of most dynasty fantasy football rankings. He ranked third in yards per route run (YPRR) among wide receivers with 50+ targets last season (2.69), behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This was the second-best number in this category for a rookie since 2011. While the sample size was small, it’s hard not to be optimistic for a player who showed they can play both inside and outside.
Alec Pierce (WR – IND)
The best result for Alec Pierce was his return to the Colts, particularly once they traded Michael Pittman Jr. and re-signed Daniel Jones. Pierce signed a four-year, $114 million contract with $84 million in guarantees, which will force the Colts to focus on him as their primary pass-catcher.
Among wide receivers with 50+ targets last season, Pierce led the NFL in average depth of target (aDOT) at 19.4 yards, and his yards per reception (21.3) was also the highest. That kind of production can be tricky to reproduce, particularly if you are with a new team and a new quarterback.
Luckily, Pierce is back with the Colts and can hope for a clean repeat, ideally with some easier targets mixed in. Pierce has firmly kept himself inside the top 30 of wide receivers for dynasty, which might be too low.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAX)
The Jaguars allowed Travis Etienne to depart for the New Orleans Saints, leaving this backfield firmly there for Bhayshul Tuten’s taking. The Jaguars did add Chris Rodriguez Jr., who had a reasonable season in Washington with 500 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, but otherwise, the deck is clear for Tuten.
Rodriguez is a big, powerful back, which helped him carve out a role in Washington, but Tuten excelled in short-yardage work, with an 81% success rate on those plays last year. In the games where he recorded 10+ touches, he averaged almost 13 PPR points. The upside clearly lands with Tuten, and now the question is how high you will be comfortable taking him in startups (ranked around RB20).
Dynasty Fantasy Football Fallers
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
The Broncos took RJ Harvey with the 60th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but Denver then made moves to suggest he wasn’t a workhorse running back. Once J.K. Dobbins arrived in town, beat reporters consistently called him the No. 1 RB, and that played out while he was healthy in 2025.
This offseason, the Broncos were linked with Kenneth Walker III and Travis Etienne before re-signing Dobbins, which might be the best scenario for Harvey given Dobbins’ injury history. However, it’s hard to ignore how the team must view Harvey.
From Weeks 12 to Week 17, Harvey averaged 16 PPR points per game, but he was one of the worst running backs in explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt and success rate. The ceiling is very much there, but the downside is also distinctly there, making him a tough pick if you have to pay a top-24 price to draft him.
Woody Marks (RB – HOU)
The plan was never for Woody Marks to be a workhorse running back. The Texans selected him in the fourth round and expected to have both Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb in the rotation for 2025. Heading into 2026, they traded for David Montgomery to make sure their running back room has a stronger foundation.
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) March 28, 2026
Marks ranked 48th among 49 running backs with 100+ attempts when it came to yards per carry (3.59), 48th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt — all categories Montgomery was convincingly better. Unfortunately for Marks, Montgomery is also a better pass-catcher and goal-line back, making it very difficult to see him being productive in 2026 without an injury to Montgomery.
Theo Johnson (TE – NYG)
Only 12 tight ends scored more than Theo Johnson’s five receiving touchdowns last year, and finding touchdown scorers at tight end makes a massive difference for fantasy football. Johnson had the 10th-highest snap rate among tight ends with 50+ targets, but his targets per route run (TPRR) tied for the worst mark out of 28 qualifying tight ends (0.18).
Johnson now faces competition for snaps and targets from Isaiah Likely, who John Harbaugh saw as a priority to bring with him from Baltimore. Likely is now paid the fourth-highest average per year among tight ends, making it highly likely the Giants want to utilize him heavily.
Even if the Giants follow the NFL trend of utilizing more tight-end-heavy packages, Johnson will struggle to return value or be an easy asset to use in managed formats any time soon. Unfortunately, now his price won’t be any better than a random third-round pick, and you might be faced with a roster clogger who is hard to move.
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