Every fantasy football draft season comes with optimism, upside… and a few craters waiting to ruin your Sunday afternoons. While it’s easy to fall in love with last year’s stats or offseason hype, not every early-round pick is built to deliver on their price tag. Our Featured Pros highlight the players who carry just enough risk to make you sweat and potentially regret clicking “Draft” before the timer hits zero.
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Fantasy Football Busts
Wide Receivers
What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“Not to pick on the Saints, but Chris Olave is my easy answer here. As I already said, I do not think Shough is as good as the end of the year would have you believe. In those same two games against terrible defenses, Olave produced nearly 20% of his targets and receptions, 23% of his yards, and 33% of his touchdowns on the year. Outside of those two games, the Saint had just a single 100-yard game. With less touchdown luck, Olave is a mid-level WR2 disguised as a WR1.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
“Luther. Burden. He’s currently the half-PPR WR23 based on pure projection. The talent is there to produce, but he’s more than likely to be much more boom-bust than we’d hope. In a run-first offense helmed by a still-developing QB with a defense bound to improve, Burden profiles to me as a WR3 with weekly WR1 upside. He’s essentially Jameson Williams, but like Jamo, you’ll have to pay WR2 prices to get him. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for me this year, given how often he is to be phased out of the game plan due to some combination of script, coverage, and usage.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“It feels like we’re putting the cart before the horse with Chicago Bears WR Luther Burden III, ranking him as a mid-fourth-round pick. There’s no denying his late-season mini-breakout, but there’s still the reality that WR Rome Odunze will run more routes as the team’s X receiver and that last year’s 10th-overall pick in the NFL, TE Colston Loveland, should take another step forward after leading Chicago with 58 receptions, 713 yards, and six touchdowns on just 82 targets. The former Missouri Tigers has strong efficiency metrics on his side, but he still has to improve winning against man coverage after posting just an 18.5% target rate against man coverage (66th-best among the position). We also need to see his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) jump up, as his 7.7 aDOT ranked 87th among receivers. You’re drafting Burden III close to his ceiling at his ranking and current Underdog Fantasy best ball ADP of 42 overall.”
– Seth Woolcock (FantasyPros)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
“Rashee Rice at WR13 is a tough one. This guy is a loose cannon and could get arrested or in trouble at any point this offseason or even during the season. But we also have to see where Patrick Mahomes is in his recovery. Could we see Justin Fields start the season for a few games? Could we see Mahomes limited and more of a run-heavy approach? Either way, Rice did not end the season well last year, and having him as your WR1 is very scary, and at WR13, that could very likely be the case.”
– David Heilman (Dynasty Trade Calculator)
“Rashee Rice is anything but a clean sheet. Last year, he missed the first six weeks due to a suspension. This was a result of street racing, causing a multi-car collision and injuring multiple people. This offseason, his former long-term partner and the mother of his two children accused him of domestic abuse between December 2023 and January 2025. Although these are accusations at the moment, with his history, he is not a player I want to bet my fantasy season on. Plus, at this point in drafts, there are plenty of good players with upside around him. Regardless of Kansas City drafting a receiver early or not, I don’t want to deal with the headache of Rice for another season.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
“I can’t invest in Jameson Williams with a top 24 price tag. Yes, I know he was the WR17 in fantasy points per game last year, but I don’t want to bet on him producing at that level again in 2026. Over the last two seasons, Williams has proven that he isn’t a high-end target earner, ranking 44th (18.4%) and 51st (18.9%) in target share among wide receivers. During that span, he has also been the WR23 and WR36 in expected fantasy points per game. With Sam LaPorta coming back healthy this season and impacting Williams’ production, it’s tough to be bullish about Williams defying the odds for a third straight season.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
George Pickens (WR – DAL)
“George Pickens had a very up-and-down 2025, but the Cowboys saw enough to place the franchise tag on him. If owners look closely, his two best weeks occurred when CeeDee Lamb was out, where he had breakout performances as the wide receiver No. 2 (Week 4 vs Green Bay) and wide receiver No. 1 (Week 6 vs Carolina)! Throughout the entire season, he only had six WR1 weeks, which is not what an owner wants from the consensus WR10. He only had 5 weeks over 100 yards, which accounted for about half his season yardage total! While Pickens is not going to be the WR61, as he was week 15 vs the Vikings, he will not perform at a consistent enough level to reward owners who drafted him at WR10.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Davante Adams (WR – LAR)
“Multiple reports suggested the Rams considered trading Davante Adams this offseason. He now looks set to return, but I’m staying away after a 2025 season fueled by an unsustainable 23.3% TD rate. The 33-year-old also saw his catch rate dip to 52.6% and his yards per route run fall to 1.90.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Davante Adams has had a splendid career, but WR17, No. 40 overall, is too steep a price for a 33-year-old receiver whose WR9 PPR finish in 2025 was driven by an unsustainable touchdown rate. Adams led the league with 14 TD catches last season — three more than his closest pursuers. He scored a touchdown on 23.3% of his catches and 12.3% of his targets. Those percentages are crazy and unrepeatable. Meanwhile, Adams was slipping in other areas. His 4.3 catches and 56.4 yards per game were the fewest in those categories since his second year in the league in 2015. His 52.6% catch rate was a career low. Adams plays with an alpha target earner in Puka Nacua, and the Rams are reportedly interested in either trading for A.J. Brown or adding another receiver in the draft. I’m not touching Adams in 2026 fantasy drafts.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“The early ECR is pricing Davante Adams as a mid-WR2 (WR17), and I’m simply not buying it. Last year was actually a red flag season disguised as a good one; he posted a career-low catch rate of 53%, his YAC per reception hit a career low, and the bulk of his production was TD-dependent with 15 scores. That kind of touchdown volume is notoriously hard to replicate year over year. Even though Matthew Stafford is back under center in LA, he may not force-feed Adams in the end zone as he did in 2025 en route to an MVP award. On top of that, Adams turns 33 and dealt with a lower-body tissue injury in 2025 that cost him time; at his age, that’s not something you just brush off. When I look at the totality of his 2026 outlook, the age, the injury, the TD regression risk, the declining efficiency numbers, and the odds the Rams add another WR in the draft, I see a player far more likely to fall off than to replicate what he did last year.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“This is actually a really tough question, because I can make a strong case for just about every wide receiver in the Top 24 to succeed. If I’m forced to pick one, it’s Davante Adams. He’s coming off a season where he scored 15 touchdowns, but the underlying profile raises some concerns, including a career-low 53% catch rate and a dip to a career-low in yards after catch per reception. He’s also entering his age-33 season, which historically isn’t where you want to be betting on sustained elite WR production, especially when efficiency is already trending down. The Rams showed you last year they’re comfortable operating out of heavier personnel, and now you’re seeing consistent links to additional pass catchers, including rumors about an A. J. Brown trade and every mock draft is pointing to another wide receiver addition. When you factor in the age, the efficiency dip, and how touchdown-driven the production was, it becomes a much tighter projection than it looks on the surface.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (The Armchair Sports Corner)
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
“Malik Nabers – per Joe Schoen, “The plan is hopefully for [Nabers] to still be ready for training camp. Again, don’t hold me to it; things change.” When you add that quote a few weeks ago to the less-than-confident messages Malik Nabers has put out there since his Week 4 ACL tear, it becomes a little scary. Combined with that is Jaxson Dart‘s erratic rookie season, and while he has promise, he needs to be more consistent, and we have to hope there’s enough volume to support both Nabers and Likely in a John Harbaugh offense. It’s not a pretty picture.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
“Being required to pay a top-20 cost for a player that only caught 5 touchdowns in 2025 seems a touch over the top. Now factor in that same exact player only finishing as a top-20 receiver weekly in half-PPR 5 times, with no top-20 finish from Weeks 2-13, that is what fantasy managers are getting with Zay Flowers. Yes, the talent screams high-end fantasy asset, that is undeniable, and while his end of the season may have won people championships, how many fantasy managers got to a championship with Zay Flowers? To discount his fantasy production in the middle of the season for what he did at the end of the season seems irresponsible, and an investment not worth making for fantasy managers in 2026.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“Tyreek Hill is still being drafted as a Top 15 wide receiver, but there are too many question marks to justify that price. He is coming off a serious knee injury and is uncertain for the start of the season, and most importantly, he does not currently have a confirmed team situation. At 33 years old, it is fair to question whether he can immediately return to his previous level of production. Hill still has elite upside if he proves his health and speed are fully back, but until that happens, he should be viewed more as a WR2/3 rather than a locked-in WR1 to build your fantasy team around. Drafting Tyreek Hill at his current cost requires a level of certainty that simply is not there.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
“CeeDee Lamb has the highest chance of not performing to his ADP as a top-5 receiver. There are simply too many mouths to feed in Dallas when George Pickens is there. He was WR15 in points per game last year, and the situation is unlikely to improve with all of their offensive pieces back. This team also added a ton of defensive pieces in the last year and is going all in on winning, which means more running. The volume from this team structure will not be enough to support his ADP.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
Drake London (WR – ATL)
“The wide receiver in consensus top 24 fantasy football 2026 rankings should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate is Drake London. He’s being drafted in the WR6-WR10 range in early rankings and even into the top 12 overall picks in some league formats. My concern here is that you are paying for a ceiling outcome. This means that you are assuming sustained elite target share, High TD conversion rates, and continued offensive efficiency. But historically speaking, Wide Receivers jumping into the elite tier often regress the following year, especially when driven by volume spikes. And the recent acquisition of Tua Tagovailoa does not scream offensive efficiency to me. From a drafting perspective, London sits in an awkward middle tier. He’s not as proven as the elites, and he’s not as explosively upside-down as the younger Wide Receiver breakouts. That’s a dangerous place to draft from. If you draft London, you’re drafting him at or near his absolute ceiling; his production relies on multiple variables staying perfect, and even mild regression turns him into a WR2 at a WR1 price. Even though I reside in metro Atlanta, Drake London is on my do not draft at his current ADP list for 2026.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
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