With early best ball drafts becoming a bigger and bigger part of the early offseason, the shifts in fantasy football ADP become even more interesting. No month sees quite as significant movement throughout the offseason as March, with the fallout of the NFL Combine and Free Agency added to a more trade-friendly league these days, to create a form of marvelous chaos. These are the biggest risers and fallers on Underdog since the beginning of March.
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Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers
Fantasy Football Risers
Chris Rodriguez (RB – JAC) +79.7 > 155.4
After leaving Washington, Chris Rodriguez was virtually undrafted on Underdog for the majority of drafts up until the Jaguars gave him a two-year, $10m contract to pair him alongside Bhayshul Tuten. Rodriguez ranked 23rd among running backs with 100 or more attempts in yards per carry (4.46) and had the sixth-highest touchdown rate at 5.4 percent, and ranked 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tuten may have more upside, but Rodriguez will get touches and is a good late-round selection.
Mike Washington Jr. (RB – NFL Draft)+61 > 134
Another player who was largely undrafted was Mike Washington Jr. The NFL Combine helped Washington’s draft stock out somewhat. He ran an impressive 4.33-second 40-yard dash and showed out well in other agility drills. It remains to be seen how high he goes in the draft, but in a league built on explosive plays, he’s worth considering as long as he doesn’t get too expensive.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – DET) + 60 > 175
Drafters still don’t have much faith in Isiah Pacheco being overly fantasy relevant, despite him being the clear backup behind Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit. The reality is, Pacheco has been below four yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, has missed time in each of the last three, and has had more than 19 receptions only once in four years. Common thinking is the Lions will add someone else here, but if they don’t, Pacheco likely jumps another 30 spots by July.
Chig Okonkwo (TE – WAS) +58 > 172
We’ve seen glimpses from Chig Okonkwo in his time in Tennessee, and those glimpses were enough for Washington to give him a three-year $27m deal with $16.7m in guarantees. Okonkwo has lacked stability in Tennessee, with offensive coordinators and quarterbacks rarely lasting long. With Jayden Daniels and little competition at tight end, Okonkwo is a fun late-round flier in a format that’s rewarded late-round tight end drafters over the last few years.
Geno Smith (QB – NYJ) +57 > 179
There was some trepidation that Geno Smith might not find a starting job after playing his way out of Las Vegas, but the Jets were keen enough to give up draft capital to make sure he returned to New York. Smith’s biggest struggle last year was playing behind an awful offensive line, and while the Jets OL isn’t fantastic, it graded 10 spots better than the Raiders’ dead-last unit, according to PFF.
Jalen Nailor (WR – LV) + 56 > 182
Around the time of the NFL Combine, rumors started to emerge that Jalen Nailor would have a bigger market than people might expect, and that played out with him snapped up relatively early in free agency. Nailor should be a solid target for the Raiders and Fernando Mendoza, but their offense will flow through Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, and they could still do with a number one wide receiver. Nailor is a fine bet for correlation late in drafts, but it’s hard to get excited about a 27-year-old who has never reached 500 yards.
David Montgomery (RB – HOU) + 39 > 67
The Texans gave up real draft capital to bring in David Montgomery, who is easily a better running back than Woody Marks, and with Joe Mixon released, clearly is the RB1. Monty does profile slightly as the kind of running back in the dead zone to beware of, but the volume can be healthy enough to help his chances of a top-18 finish among running backs.
Keaton Mitchell (RB – LAC) +36 > 164
It feels likely that Keaton Mitchell will be chased higher up draft boards after landing with the Chargers, and an offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel who knows how to value speed. Among RBs with 50 or more carries, Mitchell’s average speed of 14.49 mph was over 1.0 miles per hour quicker than any other running back. There is a danger that people are projecting a little too much value for Mitchell, as we’ve never really seen him catch passes consistently, but explosive plays make a big difference in fantasy football, and that’s hard to ignore past pick 150.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – ATL) +33 > 203
With Michael Penix dealing with an ACL injury, Tagovailoa will have the clear jump on this QB competition as new head coach, Kevin Stefanski, installs his offense. Around pick 200 feels fine for a QB who will start probably half the season and has three excellent weapons in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, but you’re unlikely to get a whole season out of a player who frequently disappoints.
DJ Moore (WR – BUF) + 31 > 63
The Bills reunited DJ Moore with Joe Brady after the two were together for one of Moore’s more successful seasons in Carolina. Moore is clearly the best receiver currently on the Bills’ depth chart, but he’s never been a great touchdown scorer, with only two seasons above six, and with the way the Bills share the ball around under Joe Brady, it’s a little difficult to get too carried away. Nevertheless, he’s an easy stack with Josh Allen.
Romeo Doubs (WR – NE) + 28 > 109
New England needs better pass-catchers, particularly in the wake of Stefon Diggs‘ release, and signing Doubs to a four-year $68m deal definitely is a step in the right direction. Doubs could easily set career highs in snap rates and route involvements for the Patriots, and with three straight seasons over 600 yards, this price feels fair enough, even if Doubs lacks ceiling somewhat.
JK Dobbins (RB – DEN) +22 > 113
When healthy, it wasn’t a competition. JK Dobbins out carried RJ Harvey by close to eight carries per game and was the clear choice. Perhaps Harvey improves in year two, but if this backfield is Dobbbins’ once again, then he should not be going 50 picks later than Harvey.
Isaiah Likely (TE – NYG) +22 > 150
The Giants continue to say Likely will be featured in this offense, and they certainly paid him like he should be. Behind Malik Nabers, Likely looks like the second-best option in this passing game, and his off-script abilities will be useful for Jaxson Dart. Likely scored 15 touchdowns during his four years in Baltimore and could return value if he’s utilized strongly in the red zone.
Josh Downs (WR – IND) +20 > 130
Alec Pierce is staying, but Michael Pittman is gone, giving Josh Downs a chance to earn more volume. With both receivers healthy last year, Downs saw his snap count drop to 62 percent, but he still earned 84 targets and is a fine choice after pick 100.
Travis Kelce (TE – KC) +18 > 144
He might not be fast anymore, and his receptions per game hit his lowest number since 2015, but Kelce still ranked fourth in tight end targets last year (108) and sixth in receptions. That kind of volume at tight end is not something to turn your nose up at.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAC) +16 > 60
One of free agency’s biggest winners. The Jaguars aren’t flush with draft capital at the top of the draft after trading for Travis Hunter last year, so it’s hard to imagine they find a difference-making RB in the draft, leaving Tuten and Rodriguez to figure out this backfield. The gap of 90 picks between them probably shouldn’t be as large, but if you’re drafting a portfolio, it seems wise to mix in some of Tuten’s upside.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – DEN) +4 > 47
The Broncos gave up their first-round pick and more to acquire Jaylen Waddle from the Broncos. Waddle earned a 26 percent target per route run rate last year, two percent higher than Courtland Sutton, and he also outplayed him in both yards per route run and first downs per route run. Sutton turns 31 this year and isn’t over the hill yet, but Waddle’s speed downfield will make for a fun match with Bo Nix. If Waddle can see some of the screens Sean Payton loves to deploy, that could really unlock his fantasy value.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Theo Johnson (TE – NYG) -54 > 226
John Harbaugh clearly felt Isaiah Likely was the type of tight end he needed for his offense.
Joe Mixon (RB – FA) -47 > 237
Released from the Texans after missing the entirety of 2025 due to a mysterious injury. Two years ago, Mixon barely had a market before the Texans traded for him, and now he’s closing in on 30 years old and might struggle to find a team, even if he wants to continue playing.
JJ McCarthy (QB – MIN) -42 > 237
Nothing we’ve heard from the Vikings suggests they want JJ McCarthy to be their QB1 going forward. Kyler Murray is a better fantasy option and a better quarterback.
Trey Benson (RB – ARI) -42 > 177
The Cardinals re-signed James Conner before signing Tyler Allgeier in free agency. Perhaps we’re overlooking Trey Benson, and maybe he’s worth some dart throws, but this new leadership in Arizona hasn’t done much to give us any faith.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) -36 > 185
Reports continue to swirl that Alvin Kamara could be released, retire, or be traded, and that, combined with Travis Etienne arriving in New Orleans, makes him a very risky pick at the moment.
Woody Marks (RB – HOU) -33 > 155
It wasn’t a bad rookie season for Woody Marks, but he struggled to create much with Houston’s poor offensive line, ranking 48th among 49 running backs with 100 or more attempts when it came to yards per carry (3.59). He also disappointingly ranked 48th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. David Montgomery is simply better and easier to trust.
Deebo Samuel (WR – FA) -20 > 150
It’s been two weeks since free agency opened, and Samuel has generated very little conversation. At this point, it might be a little while till he signs a contract. A reunion in San Francisco might be his best hope for fantasy.
Jauan Jennings (WR – FA) -12 > 124
Another wide receiver who was expected to have a market, but instead Jennings is still without a job. Rumors suggested Jennings wanted $15m a year after totaling over 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns in the last two years, but now the soon to be 29 year old might be in one year prove it territory.
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) -7 > 35
Kenneth Gainwell had a career year with the 13th most RB points from Week 10 onwards, and it was enough for the Bucs to replace Rachaad White with the Steelers 2025 MVP. Tampa also brought back Sean Tucker on a modest deal, further muddying this backfield. Bucky Irving is undeniably talented, but he’s not beating the accusations that he’s not big enough and complete enough to be a workhorse.
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